Iowa Men's Wrestling: Early Thoughts on the Hawkeyes
Not that everyone’s counting (this guy certainly is), but we’re barely a month away from the start of the 2024-25 Iowa men’s wrestling season.
And in true Hawkeye wrestling fashion (if you know, you know) we’re still without an official schedule.
However, in piecing some things together this season appears set to commence on Saturday November 2nd with a road dual against Oregon State.
Just two days earlier – on Halloween no less – we’ll get our first official introduction to the team at its annual Media Day event.
I’m sure most fans are no stranger to what a tumultuous year 2023-24 was for Iowa – highlighted by the most inauspicious of ‘starts’ imaginable when four returning starters (including three previous All-Americans) received season-long suspensions in connection with an increasingly dubious state gambling probe.
In some respects, Iowa responded quite admirably to the unprecedented adversity.
But the die was largely cast the moment those suspensions were announced (and ultimately upheld).
The result? A fifth-place finish at the NCAA Championships – tying the second-lowest mark in 17 trips to the national tournament under head coach Tom Brands (8th in his first season, 5th in 2016).
Since then, a major offseason overhaul has taken place thanks to a trio of high-profile transfers – two of whom will likely enter the season ranked #1 at their respective weight classes – as well as a talented redshirt freshmen class that fans are eagerly awaiting to step into the lineup.
Now on the cusp of a new season the Hawkeyes could have as many as eight fresh faces in the lineup from the 10 they sent to the Big Ten Championships last March.
Those changes – and the individual firepower among them – make Iowa the clear-cut number two to returning national champion Penn State entering this winter (more on that later).
Projected Lineup
Earlier this summer I went into much greater detail on the complete state of Iowa’s depth chart.
You can check out that article HERE – which also includes roster demographics, transfer information and more.
For now, here’s a little sneak preview as to how I think the starting spot at each of the ten weight classes will play out based on the information currently available:
125 pounds – Joey Cruz (RS Soph) OR Kale Petersen (RS Fr)
With Drake Ayala now listed at 133 pounds on the official Iowa roster perhaps the single most pressing question for the Hawkeyes is who will man 125.
The contenders for the spot figure to either of two second-year Hawks.
Cruz (a transfer from Oklahoma) was the 33rd-ranked recruit in the country out of high school but went just 7-6 in limited action during his first season in Iowa City.
Petersen (a three-time undefeated Iowa state champion for Greene County) was the #52 prospect in the Class of 2023 and competed at 133 pounds a year ago – going 6-4.
One of those results was a 12-5 victory over then 12th-ranked Angelo Rini (Columbia) and another a 6-4 defeat to NCAA Round of 12 finisher Tyler Wells (Minnesota).
Chatter has been that Petersen is now headed down to 125. If so, I think he could prove to be a sneaky good option for the Hawkeyes there.
133 pounds – Drake Ayala (RS Jr)
The returning NCAA runner up at 125 pounds, Ayala appears set to bump up in weight class for his third season in the Iowa lineup.
We saw a trial run at his new weight back in June at U23 Nationals when the Fort Dodge native took third place at 61 kilograms (~134.5 pounds).
Other than a sluggish 10-8 loss to NCAA Round of 12 finisher Kurtis Phipps (Bucknell) in which Ayala couldn’t quite climb out of an eight-point deficit he looked like very much the same Drake we’d come to know at 125 (pounds).
Besides that, the junior teched all six of his other opponents by a combined margin of 67-5.
I think Ayala will translate just fine to 133 this season – an opinion shared by FloWrestling who has him slated #3 in its preseason rankings at the new weight.
141 pounds – Ryder Block (RS Fr)
One of many guys I’m eager to get eyes on this season is the redshirt freshman Block – a three-time Iowa state champion whose only defeat in high school competition came against his now-teammate Ayala.
The Waverly-Shell Rock graduate also won back-to-back Fargo Junior national titles to close his prep career. Those impressive credentials (among others) were why he was ranked the #22 overall prospect in the Class of 2023.
A torn ACL last summer delayed our first look at Block as a collegian, but if fully healthy I expect him to be an immediate All-American contender this season.
True freshmen Nasir Bailey (4th at 133lbs for Arkansas Little Rock) and Tyler Kasak (3rd at 149lbs for Penn State) were two members of Block’s high school class that the Hawkeye traded wins and tight matches with late in their prep careers.
Bailey/Kasak immediately translated to the college level in Year 1. I think Block could do the same in his debut season on the mat.
149 pounds – Kyle Parco (6th-Year Sr)
The first of Iowa’s key transfers for 2024-25, Parco comes to Iowa City via Arizona State (and Fresno State before that) – where he amassed a 103-20 career record, including four separate All-American finishes at the NCAA Championships.
He enters his final year of eligibility tabbed 4th in Flo’s preseason rankings. Based on that projected finish (and not including potential bonus points) he’d score the Hawkeyes 10 more team points than they got from this weight last March.
157 pounds – Jacory Teemer (7th-Year Sr)
Another former Sun Devil-turned- Hawkeye is 2024 NCAA runner up Jacory Teemer.
And with 157-pound national champ Levi Haines moving out of the weight class it leaves Teemer (85-17 career record) as the top-ranked wrestler in the country entering this season.
Even finishing second place a year ago the New York native outscored Iowa’s 2024 postseason starter (8th-place All-American Jared Franek) by 11.5 points at NCAAs.
Teemer is certainly among those in contention to become the first Hawkeye not named Spencer Lee to win an individual national title since 2017 (Cory Clark).
165 pounds – Michael Caliendo (RS Jr)
A godsend for the Hawkeyes a year ago via his transfer from North Dakota State, Caliendo rolls into his junior season with about as much momentum as anyone on this roster.
He’ll start the year ranked second behind Penn State’s Mitchell Mesenbrink – who handed him half of his six losses in 2023-24.
(The other three were to wrestlers who are no longer competing at 165.)
I love Caliendo’s explosiveness and variety of attacks.
Can he close the gap with Mesenbrink and the Nittany Lion’s otherworldly pace? We’ll see.
But I think (as of now) he’s definitively separated himself from the rest of the field at 165 pounds. And if he can make an NCAA final as his #2 ranking would predict then he’s at least got a chance to win the whole thing.
174 pounds – Gabe Arnold (RS Fr) OR Patrick Kennedy (5th-Year Jr)
This weight represents the most compelling intrasquad lineup battle for the coming season.
Will it be the exciting young bull or the seasoned veteran?
Most (including myself) would probably slightly favor the redshirt freshman given both the appeal of his yet-to-be-seen ‘ceiling’ as well as the impressive early results he showcased last season.
Arnold went 12-1 bouncing between 174 and 184 – including a trio of wins over NCAA All-Americans. His only loss came against eventual 184-pound national runner up Dustin Plott via 5-1 decision on the road at Oklahoma State.
Those results have earned him the #6 preseason ranking at 174 pounds courtesy of Flo.
Were Arnold to merely hold that seed at NCAAs next March he’d earn Iowa an additional six team points (excluding bonus) compared to what it got from Kennedy in 2024.
(And I happen to think he’s capable of climbing at least a few spots higher than sixth.)
Of course, two-time NCAA qualifier Patrick Kennedy (Round of 16 in 2023, Round of 12 in 2024) is hardly going to relinquish the job without a fight.
That became all the more clear when he stormed his way to a U23 World Team spot at 79 kilograms (~174.2 pounds) earlier this summer – winning all seven matches via tech. fall.
I fully expect this to be a competition that lasts until (at least) the Soldier Salute tournament held in Coralville in late December.
184 pounds – Nelson Brands (7th-Year Sr)
I know that (Nelson) Brands said in a podcast appearance this summer that he still considers himself to be a 174-pounder.
(If you didn’t know about that, well, now you do.)
But I still think the likely scenario for his seventh and final year of collegiate eligibility is that he competes at 184 for the Hawkeyes.
Now 25 years old (For context: Brands is only 121 days younger than Spencer Lee), moving up in weight class has seemingly been the trend – and a successful one – for many guys in the latter stages of their college careers.
While he finished 5th at 174 the last time we saw him compete in folkstyle (2023 NCAAs), this past April I also watched him go 5-2 for fourth place at the Last Chance Olympic Trials Qualifier at 86 kilograms (~189.6 pounds).
Rarely did Brands appear significantly outsized and/or outmuscled at 86kg, and amidst a competitive field he more than held his own.
His win of the tournament came against two-time Big 12 champion Taylor Lujan.
Lujan, a UNI graduate, was the #1 overall seed at 184 pounds entering the canceled 2020 NCAA Championships.
Brands also happens to be undefeated (2-0) in his college career against this year’s returning runner up at 184, the aforementioned Dustin Plott.
I think he’ll do just fine at the new weight, to which Flo agrees yet again – ranking Nelson #5 at 184 entering the 2024-25 season.
And any team points Iowa scores at 184 this year will be more than the ‘goose egg’ it got from not having an NCAA qualifier last March.
197 pounds – Stephen Buchanan (6th-Year Sr)
The third and final high-profile transfer addition of this offseason hails from Oklahoma by way of Wyoming.
Across four seasons at those schools Buchanan amassed a record of 86-25. That mark is an even more impressive 52-6 when you only consider his last two seasons of competition (in which he finished third at NCAAs on both occasions).
Buchanan is also a high bonus point scorer – winning via major decision, tech. fall or pin in nearly 70 percent of his matches a year ago.
The three-time All-American enters 2024-25 as the top returning placer at 197 pounds and could very well live up to his preseason #1 ranking by winning a national title in Philadelphia six months from now.
285 pounds – Ben Kueter (RS Fr)
I’ve thought and written so much about Kueter this summer that things are starting to blur together to the point that I can’t even identify what is or isn’t an original idea of mine on the subject any longer.
He’s that fascinating of any athlete and I’m that much of a sicko who will run endless imaginary scenarios in my head while we wait for him to finally take the mat for an extended period of action.
Five matches in June at the U20 World Team Trials – four of them wins over previous age-level World teamers/medalists – and four matches a few weeks ago at the U20 World Championships – where Kueter brought home a silver medal at 125 kilograms (~275.6 pounds) – is all we’ve gotten to see from him since his brief four-match debut in an Iowa singlet.
Those four collegiate bouts took place over the span of 42 days in January/February. Then it was back to spring football before Kueter ultimately made the decision post-World Team Trials that his sole focus during the coming season would be on wrestling.
Now, he rolls into his first full collegiate season fresh off a 4-2 defeat against one of the top five heavyweight wrestlers in the world.
Due to the still small sample size, I can’t say with overwhelming confidence what Kueter has in store for his D1 competition in 2024-25. Even so, with each passing day I’m inclined to believe that increasingly special things just might be in store for his debut season as a Hawkeye.
I will say this – I don’t think Flo’s #11 preseason ranking reflects anywhere near the heights the redshirt freshman will reach this year.
The Team Title Race (AKA – the Penn State problem)
Iowa men’s wrestling and its fanbase are about one thing – winning national championships.
And so, despite Tom Brands leading the program to four NCAA team titles in his 18 years at the helm – plus another season in which Iowa was the overwhelming title favorites heading into the 2020 NCAA Championships canceled due to COVID – there’s a general restlessness among some of the Black & Gold faithful.
Why? Because over in State College (PA) Cael Sanderson has led Penn State to 11 titles since 2011.
The Nittany Lions will look to complete their third different ‘four-peat’ next March.
I previously mentioned how the suspension-ravaged Hawkeyes had little hope to contend in 2024. Now, despite another loaded PSU roster Iowa’s offseason overhaul might have been enough to make things interesting in 2025 so long as the Hawkeyes are at their best for NCAAs.
Flo currently has the team standings projected at Penn State – 124, Iowa – 103 based on its preseason rankings.
(Oklahoma State sits in third place with 59 points, and as always, these figures do not account for bonus points.)
That 21-point projected gap is a far more manageable margin than what Iowa faced a year ago – and in quite a few recent seasons as compared to the Nittany Lions.
Could the Hawkeyes narrow the margin even further with ‘overperformances’ from the likes of Petersen (125), Block (141) and Kueter (285) – currently projected to score two NCAA team points between the three of them – of course.
But Penn State has opportunities to pick up some extra points compared to the current projections as well (not to mention the firepower to do so).
Point being, there are scenarios in which we could have a team title race on our hands come March.
Those haven’t always realistically existed entering some previous seasons.
Short Time
Be sure to check back in tomorrow for my early thoughts on the 2024-25 season for the Iowa women.
I’ll also have recruiting breakdowns for both wrestling programs up today (men) and tomorrow (women) respectively, so don’t miss out on those either.
Thanks as always for reading.
College wrestling is almost here again, folks!
