Iowa WBB Bracketology: Making the Hawkeyes case for a 6 seed

Selection Sunday is just eight days away and the Iowa women’s basketball team is in the clubhouse, so to speak, with a 22-10 record, after falling to Ohio State in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament. Now, they will take a week off to rest, recover and await next Sunday’s Selection Show.

It will be a different vibe when the regional assignments get announced, as the Hawkeyes are set to go on the road for the first time since 2018 and just the second time since 2012. Not long ago, it seemed like Iowa might be destined for a spot in a regional hosted by a top eight team. They won ten of their final 13 games and have drastically changed their NCAA Tournament outlook.

HawkeyeReport has your Iowa Women’s Basketball Bracketology update.

Breaking down the Hawkeyes resume

LINK: Iowa Women’s Basketball Resume – Warren Nolan Site

Iowa currently sits at #24 in the NET rankings, which is 5-6 spots higher than they were a couple of weeks ago. They are 6-7 against Quad 1 opponents, including a marquee wins over USC and Michigan State. The Hawkeyes have a combined 9-10 record against Q1/2 teams and do not have a single loss outside of the NET top 40. Their average margin of defeat in those ten losses is just 4.7 points. Iowa also has 13 wins against the NET top 100.

Looking at how their resume compares to eight other teams in the discussion for a 6 or 7 seed, the Hawkeyes have the most Q1 wins (6), the second-most Q1/2 wins (9) and the third highest non-conference strength of schedule (83). The average NET ranking of teams they have defeated (85) is nearly 30 spots better than any other team in the discussion. As of today, I would have West Virginia, Iowa, Michigan and Florida State as the four six seeds, in that order.

How does Iowa stack up against the other projected 6 and 7 seeds?

Team	Record	NET	Q1	Q1/2	Q3/4	Non-Conf SOS	Avg NET W	Avg NET L
Iowa	22-10	24	6-7	9-10	13-0	83	85	25
West Virginia	24-6	11	2-4	6-6	18-0	206	124	27
Michigan State	21-9	21	4-8	8-9	13-0	108	134	22
Michigan	22-9	23	5-8	11-8	11-1	74	121	25
Florida State	23-8	25	3-6	8-8	15-0	113	125	26
Louisville	21-10	35	2-9	9-10	12-0	10	104	13
Vanderbilt	22-10	22	3-9	8-10	14-0	222	143	12
Oklahoma State	25-5	27	5-2	9-2	16-3	283	133	78
California	25-8	37	3-6	8-8	17-0	144	111	25

What the brackets are saying…

ESPN (March 8th): 6 seed – Charlie Creme of ESPN has the Hawkeyes as a 6 seed in his latest projection, slated to face off against 11 seed Columbia in the Durham Regional hosted by 3 seed Duke. In this projection, they are matched up with the Storrs Regional, which would have UConn (2), Vanderbilt (7) and Oregon (10) as potential Sweet Sixteen opponents.

HerHoopStats (March 8): 6 seed – The latest update from Megan Gauer has Iowa as a 6 seed in the Lexington Regional, slated to face off against the winner of an 11 seed First Four matchup between Princeton and Virginia Tech. In this projection, 3 seed Kentucky is the host, facing 14 seed Ball State. They are matched up with the Storrs Regional, which would have UConn (2), Florida State (7) and Washington (10) as potential Sweet Sixteen opponents.

Who are the potential first round opponents?

With the way the bubble has played out this season, there are a lot of familiar faces. Looking at the most recent ESPN projection, Iowa has played five of the final eight teams in the field, while they also played projected first team out, Minnesota. That means the likelihood of Iowa getting one of the 6 seeds that is matched up with an 11 seed First Four matchup is pretty low. It’s not impossible, but it seems rather likely that the Hawkeyes would get a high-level mid-major in their opening game of the tournament.

Here’s a brief look at a couple of potential opponents…

Columbia – The favorite to win the Ivy League Tournament, the Lions are 21-5 and will finish off the regular season later today against Cornell. Columbia is 3-5 against Q1/2 opponents, including winning three of four against Harvard and Princeton.

James Madison – The heavy favorite to win the Sun Belt Tournament, the Dukes are 27-4 and have flipped between an 11 seed and a 12 seed in recent projections. JMU is 2-3 against Q1/2 opponents this season, including a win over Florida.

UNLV – Recently dropped to a 12 seed after a loss in the regular season finale against Wyoming, the Rebels are still in the hunt for an 11 seed with a 24-6 record, going into the Mountain West Tournament. UNLV is 0-4 against Q1/2 opponents.