Iowa WBB Tip Time Preview - at Michigan State

#10 IOWA HAWKEYES (14-4) (6-1) at MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (10-8) (2-5)

TIME: 6:00pm

TV: BTN+ – Zach Surdenik, Alexis Ayala and Veronica Bolanos

SERIES: 72nd Meeting – Iowa leads the series 41-30 (Lost 10 of last 12 in East Lansing)

THE NUMBERS

OFFENSE: IOWA: 88.1 PPG, 50.0% FG, 37.5% 3PT, 13.3 TO MICHIGAN STATE: 79.9 PPG, 43.5% FG, 33.6% 3PT, 15.2 TO

DEFENSE: IOWA: 70.1 PPG, 40.1% FG, 30.7% 3PT, 15.4 TO, +5.8 REB MARGIN MICHIGAN STATE: 63.3 PPG, 39.4% FG, 28.6% 3PT, 21.6 TO, +5.9 REB MARGIN

PROJECTED LINEUPS

IOWA HAWKEYES

6’0 PG Caitlin Clark – 26.8 PPG, 7.5 REB, 7.3 AST, 37.6% 3PT

6’0 G Kate Martin – 6.5 PPG, 3.7 REB, 3.0 AST, 46.8% 3PT

5’9 G Gabbie Marshall – 4.4 PPG, 30.5% FG

6’1 F McKenna Warnock – 12.4 PPG, 6.2 REB, 45.1% 3PT

6’3 C Monika Czinano – 17.7 PPG, 6.6 REB, 63.2% FG

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS

5’10 G Kamaria McDaniel – 14.3 PPG, 3.7 REB, 2.9 AST, 38.9% FG

5’7 G DeeDee Hagemann – 7.1 PPG, 4.2 AST, 37.8% FG

5’10 G Moira Joiner – 9.6 PPG, 3.9 REB, 42.4% 3PT

6’0 F Matilda Ekh – 12.9 PPG, 3.1 REB, 41.2% 3PT

6’3 F Isaline Alexander – 7.9 PPG, 4.9 REB, 57.6% FG

IOWA PLAYER TO WATCH: G Kate Martin

Kate Martin isn’t going to be the player that comes out and scores 15 points a game. She does the less talked about things like rebounding and assisting on the floor, as well as be a leader. However, the Hawkeyes can still generally rely on Kate to get a couple of big baskets each game.

Last time out against Penn State, Kate Martin was 0/1 from the floor and did not have any points. It is just the second time this season she hasn’t taken at least three shots and just the second time she has gone scoreless. Feels like a spot for her to step up and hit a few shots tonight.

MICHIGAN STATE PLAYER TO WATCH: F Matilda Ekh

If the Spartans keep this one close, they are going to need Matilda Ekh to be a major contributor. She can be a game changer because most of her work is done from behind the arc. Ekh is taking 6.7 three pointers per game and nearly 70% of her shots are from outside the arc.

“Matilda Ekh is an extremely good shooter and plays for the Swedish national team. She’s got a quick release like Melissa Dixon and then she’s six foot tall on top of it. She’s an extremely good offensive player.”

Over the last seven games, Ekh has increased her workload. Since the middle of December, she is averaging 15.2 points per game and has taken 7+ three pointers in five games. Ekh may be due for a big game as she has just 23 points on 3/12 shooting from outside over the last two games.

KEY MATCHUP: Michigan State Press vs Iowa Offense

Saturday the Hawkeyes faced a press heavy Penn State team and made quick work of it with 34 points in the opening quarter. Now they are up against a Spartans team that presses 47% of the time and forces 21.6 turnovers per game. That ranks 13th in the country.

“There are similarities (to Penn State). It’s nice having them back-to-back games because your’e working on the same thing consistently in practice,” said Lisa Bluder. “They’re a little bit more aggressive than Penn State. They’ll pick up in full court player. They’ll trap out of the full court player, but a lot of time it is a three quarter court press just like Penn State.”

The Hawkeyes know that they must take care of the ball and limit turnovers, but that they may have to be more patient on the offensive end if the press slows them down.

“Tempo wise, (a press) can disrupt things a little bit. They can take you out of your own rhythm or take you out of your offense a bit. Take away your transition, which is something we are very good at,” said Bluder. “(The key is) keeping calm in those situations and sticking to your game plan and not playing how they want you to play.”

THE PICK

Michigan State comes into this matchup with a 10-8 record, but are on a three-game losing streak that includes a shocking overtime home loss to Wisconsin. Eight of their wins have come against Quad 4 teams, but they did hand Indiana their only loss of the season back on December 29th. Despite that win, the Spartans are just 2-8 against non-Quad 4 opponents, although just two of the losses were by a double digit margin.

“They seem to play to the level of their competition a little bit. Beating Indiana and then losing to Wisconsin and then a tight game at Maryland,” said Bluder.

The Spartans are an interesting team because of their three-point shooting. They have knocked down 10+ three pointers in eight games, including 19 (57 pts) against Maryland. On the other hand, they have made five or less in five games, including just 3/19 against Michigan last time out. It makes them a hard team to prepare for because of their inconsistency.

“You just have to be very aware of where their shooters are at all times. You have to have great communication,” said Bluder. “What makes me most concerned is their transition offense becuase they really do a great job of getting threes in their transition offense. That concerns me and that’s something that we really have to be prepared for.”

Matilda Ekh (41.2%) and Moira Joiner (42.4%) are the two main threats, as they have combined to make 51.7% of the teams three pointers on the season. Joiner has made 3+ three pointers in five games, including five in their narrow loss to Maryland.

Former Penn State All-Big Ten selection Kamaria McDaniel has returned to form after a knee injury slowed her each of the last two seasons at Baylor. She leads the team in scoring at 14.3 point per game and has scored 20+ points four times this season. McDaniel has shown the ability to score at a high level when she scored 76 points (25.3 ppg) in a three game stretch against Oregon, Georgia Tech and Purdue.

Point guard DeeDee Hagemann was a Freshman All-Big Ten selection a year ago and will be the one initiating the offense. She leads the team in assists with 75 and has scored in double figures five times. Hagemann ranks 31st in the country in assist-turnover ratio. She doesn’t shoot the ball a ton, as she averages just 6.2 shots per game. That ranks fourth on the team.

In the post the Spartans have a pair of options. Isaline Alexander and Taiyier Parks have combined to start 18 games this season. Statistically, they are very similar. They are the two best offensive rebounders and combine to average 5.2 offensive boards per game. Alexander has started eight of the last nine games and has eight games with 3+ offensive rebounds. Parks has played her best basketball over the last five games. She is averaging 11.6 points, 8.8 rebounds and 4.4 offensive rebounds per game over that five game stretch.

Off the bench, Coach Suzy Merchant uses several players. G Tory Ozment averages 16.8 minutes per game, but has struggling from behind the arc shooting just 16.7%. She has also started six games, so she could potentially be in the lineup over Moira Joiner.

G Julia Ayrault, G Theryn Hallock and G Stephanie Visscher round out the players off the bench that have appeared in every game. The freshman Hallock averages 10.0 minutes per game and 8.8 assists per 40 minutes, but has seen less minutes in Big Ten play. Ayrault is the biggest threat, averaging 4.3 points and 3.9 rebounds in Big Ten play.

Here are some important stats going into this matchup…

2pt FG: Iowa 4th (57.6%) Michigan State 70th (49.1%)

3pt FG: Iowa 13th (37.5%) Michigan State 79th (33.7%)

3pt Rate: Iowa 87th (37.5%) Michigan State 105th (36.1%)

TO: Iowa 27th (13.3) Michigan State 98th (15.2)

Steals: Michigan State 13th (11.1) Iowa 167th (7.9)

Off Pts/100 Possessions: Iowa 5th (113.8) Michigan State 37th (104.0)

Def Pts/100 Possessions: Michigan State 33rd (82.1) Iowa 165th (90.4)

Possessions Per Gm: Iowa 20th (76.9) Michigan State 28th (75.8)

Off Rebounding: Michigan State 41st (36.7%) Iowa 280th (27.1%)

Def Rebounding: Iowa 10th (76.3%) Michigan State 34th (73.7%)

The Breslin Center has been a tough place to play for the Hawkeyes, as they have lost 10 of the last 12 trips to East Lansing. The Spartans are an interesting team because they are 2-5 in Big Ten play, but defeated Indiana and four of the losses are by nine points or less. They have the ability to stay in games by forcing turnovers with their press and making three pointers. That makes it a harder game to predict.

WarrenNolan.com likes Iowa to win a hard fought game 81-69, but if the Hawkeyes take care of the Spartans press like they did Penn State, this game could end up being a comfortable win. If the Spartans can force some turnovers with their press and knock down some three pointers like the Maryland game then it could be a close game. The Hawkeyes are playing their best basketball of the season and it feels like it will be too much for Michigan State to overcome and pull the upset. IOWA 88 MICHIGAN STATE 72