Iowa WBB Tip Time Preview - at Maryland

#6 IOWA HAWKEYES (21-5) (13-2) at #7 MARYLAND TERRAPINS (22-5) (13-3)

TIME: 7:00pm

TV: Big Ten Network – Mike Hall and Stephanie White

SERIES: 16th Meeting – Maryland leads the series 10-5

THE NUMBERS

OFFENSE: IOWA: 88.3 PPG, 51.5% FG, 37.4% 3PT, 14.1 TO MARYLAND: 78.5 PPG, 43.7% FG, 35.2% 3PT, 13.6 TO

DEFENSE: IOWA: 69.9 PPG, 39.6% FG, 28.6% 3PT, 14.7 TO, +7.0 REB MARGIN MARYLAND: 68.4 PPG, 40.9% FG, 33.6% 3PT, 19.8 TO, -0.7 REB MARGIN

PROJECTED LINEUPS

IOWA HAWKEYES

6’0 PG Caitlin Clark – 27.3 PPG, 7.5 REB, 8.3 AST, 37.8% 3PT

5’9 G Gabbie Marshall – 4.5 PPG, 33.3% FG, 41 STLS

6’0 G Kate Martin – 7.0 PPG, 4.2 REB, 3.4 AST, 47.2% FG

6’1 F McKenna Warnock – 11.2 PPG, 5.8 REB, 43.4% 3PT

6’3 C Monika Czinano – 17.8 PPG, 6.3 REB, 67.3% FG

MARYLAND TERRAPINS

5’8 G Elisa Pinzan – 3.5 PPG, 3.2 AST, 39.4% FG

6’2 G Shyanne Sellers – 14.5 PPG, 5.0 REB, 3.1 AST, 50.5% FG

6’0 G Abby Meyers – 14.2 PPG, 5.2 REB, 37.7% 3PT

6’3 F Diamond Miller – 20.2 PPG, 6.5 REB, 48.1% FG

6’1 F Faith Masonius – 6.6 PPG, 5.1 REB, 44.4% FG

IOWA PLAYER TO WATCH: F McKenna Warnock

The Hawkeyes got 42 from Caitlin Clark and 28 from Monika Czinano in the first matchup against the Terps in Iowa City. Unless they plan to combine for 70 again, Iowa needs someone else to step up and score some points.

McKenna Warnock finished that game with six rebounds and three assists, but attempted just three shots. It was also her first game back after missing two games with a rib injury. The Hawkeyes will need a couple of players not named Clark or Czinano to hit some shots tonight. Warnock might just be one of those players.

MARYLAND PLAYER TO WATCH: G Abby Meyers

Sure, Diamond Miller could be the pick here, but she, like Caitlin Clark, is going to get her points. Despite shooing 8/17 from the floor in the first matchup, Miller still finished with 27 points due to 11 made free throws.

The Hawkeyes were able to limit Abby Meyers and that had a big impact on the result of the first game. Meyers just 5/17 from the floor and just 2/8 from three-point range. Her 29.4% shooting percentage in the game was her second lowest of the season when taking 10+ shots. She has taken 10+ shots in 20 games this season, so it was impressive work by the Iowa defense.

If Maryland can get Meyers going, it may be trouble for Iowa. However, if the Hawkeyes can take away Meyers three-point shooting again, it will force more of the scoring load to Miller/Sellers just like the first matchup.

KEY MATCHUP: Iowa offense vs Maryland defensive pressure

The Terps have one of the best defenses in the country when it comes to forcing turnovers. They ranked 30th in the country at 19.8 per game. In their recent wins against Ohio State and Illinois, Maryland forced a combined 49 turnovers, which turned into 54 points on the offensive end.

When the teams met in Iowa City, the Hawkeyes turned it over 19 times and the Terrapins turned that into 24 points. Tonight, valuing that ball again will be a big key. If Iowa can handle the Maryland press, a big part of the Terps attack is limited.

THE PICK

The Terrapins have been on the heels of the Hawkeyes in the AP Poll and the Big Ten standings for quite a while now. Iowa defeated Maryland 96-82 in Iowa City back on February 2nd. Since then, the Terps have won four games in a row, including a blowout win against #16 Ohio State and a comeback win against #25 Illinois.

Much like the first matchup, Diamond Miller will be the toughest matchup on the floor for the Iowa defense. She got in some foul trouble in the first matchup, which helped things a bit. Miller has scored 20+ points in 11 games this season, including a season-high 12 made field goals against Illinois last week. Her 8/17 shooting against Iowa was her lowest shooting percentage in her last seven games.

Shyanne Sellers was the one that really stepped up in the first matchup. She put up a career-high 26 points on 10/17 shooting. Sellers has scored in double figures 22 times this season, but is coming off a season-low two points on 1/3 shooting against Michigan State. She played just 12 minutes and fouled out. The previously mentioned Abby Meyers is shooting 25/51 (49.0%) from the floor over the last four games. Despite holding her to 2/8 from three-point range in the first matchup, she has made 3+ three-pointers in nine games this season.

Rounding out the starting lineup is guard Elisa Pinzan and forward Faith Masonius. However, they are not huge threats on the offensive end. Masonius has scored in double figures just twice in Big Ten play. She is an issue on the offensive glass, with nine games with 3+ offensive rebounds. Pinzan is averaging 3.5 points per game on 3.6 shot attempts per game. She leads the team with eight games with 5+ assists.

Off the bench, the Terps used three players in the first matchup, but they combined for just four points on 2/8 shooting. Brinae Alexander is shooting it well from three-point range. She has seven games with 3+ three-pointers, but is just 3/20 (15.0%) over her last eight games.

Lavender Briggs (6.4 ppg, 24.0 mins) and Bri McDaniel (3.1 ppg, 9.0 mins) will also see the floor. Briggs has scored in double figures six times, while McDaniel scored a season-high 14 points against Northwestern on February 9th.

The one thing Iowa needs to do better in this matchup is rebound. The Terrapins average 12.1 offensive rebounds per game, but grabbed 15 against the Hawkeyes. Iowa lucked out with Maryland only turning it into 13 points.

Here are some important stats to know for tonight’s matchup…

2pt FG: Iowa 1st (59.7%) Maryland 116th (47.1%)

3pt FG: Iowa 13th (37.4%) Maryland 35th (35.2%)

3pt Rate: Iowa 89th (36.9%) Maryland 253rd (28.8%)

TO: Maryland 42nd (13.6) Iowa 63rd (14.1)

FORCED TO: Maryland 30th (19.8) Iowa 253rd (14.7)

Off Pts/100 Possessions: Iowa 3rd (113.9) Maryland 33rd (103.6)

Def Pts/100 Possessions: Maryland 135th (89.9) Iowa 137th (90.1)

Possessions Per Gm: Iowa 11th (76.8) Maryland 16th (75.8)

Off Rebounding: Maryland 160th (31.6%) Iowa 281st (27.1%)

Def Rebounding: Iowa 4th (76.7%) Maryland 222nd (67.8%)

Over the years, the XFINITY Center has been a challenge for the Hawkeyes. Since the Terrapins joined the Big Ten, Iowa is 0-5 in College Park. They have lost those five games by an average of 18.4 points per game. This season is different. The Hawkeyes and Terps are different teams this season. However, Maryland is still 10-2 at home.

WarrenNolan.com projects Maryland to pick up the win 78-75 on their home floor. The Hawkeyes put together one of their best games of the season in their win against the Terps in Iowa City, but it’s hard to imagine tonight’s game going as smoothly. If Iowa can handle the press and avoid giving Maryland easy points, then they can win again. IOWA 86 MARYLAND 81