Iowa WBB Tip Time Preview - at Illinois

#12 IOWA HAWKEYES (11-3) at ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI (12-2)

TIME: 2:00pm

TV: Big Ten Network – Meghan McKeown and Jason Ross Jr

SERIES: 80^th meeting – Iowa leads the series 60-19 (Won seven straight)

Iowa Women’s Basketball Gameday

🆚: Illinois Fighting Illini
📍: State Farm Center
🕰: 2:00pm
📺: Big Ten Network pic.twitter.com/qPE9cZNwSJ

— Kyle Huesmann (@HuesmannKyle) January 1, 2023

THE NUMBERS

OFFENSE: IOWA: 86.1 PPG, 48.7% FG, 35.7% 3PT, 13.1 TO ILLINOIS: 80.7 PPG, 47.6% FG, 41.9% 3PT, 14.5 TO

DEFENSE: IOWA: 68.2 PPG, 38.8% FG, 30.6% 3PT, 15.6 TO, +6.0 REB MARGIN ILLINOIS: 57.7 PPG, 35.6% FG, 25.7% 3PT, 15.6 TO, +11.4 REB MARGIN

PROJECTED LINEUPS

IOWA HAWKEYES

6’0 PG Caitlin Clark – 26.8 PPG, 7.6 REB, 6.9 AST, 35.1% 3PT

6’0 G Kate Martin – 6.6 PPG, 4.0 REB, 3.2 AST, 46.7% FG

5’9 G Gabbie Marshall – 4.6 PPG, 30.0% FG

6’1 F McKenna Warnock – 11.9 PPG, 5.9 REB, 42.6% 3PT

6’3 C Monika Czinano – 17.0 PPG, 6.9 REB, 61.5% FG

ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI

5’6 G Makira Cook – 18.3 PPG, 3.5 AST, 47.9% 3PT

5’6 G Genesis Bryant – 13.8 PPG, 3.7 AST, 50.0% 3PT

5’10 G Adalia McKenzie – 16.5 PPG, 6.2 REB, 50.3% FG

6’2 F Kendall Bostic – 8.2 PPG, 9.6 REB, 61.2% FG

6’3 F Brynn Shoup-Hill – 5.5 PPG, 5.4 REB, 41.5% FG

IOWA PLAYER TO WATCH: F McKenna Warnock

With Gabbie Marshall still struggling to shoot the ball from outside, McKenna Warnock is going to be relied to be a contributor from behind the arc alongside Caitlin Clark, until Marshall can get back on track. Warnock came off the four-day break and came out firing against the Boilermakers making 5/7 from three-point range en reoute to a season-high 19 points. Will be interesting to see if that performance can carry over into today’s game.

Warnock will also be needed on the rebounding side of things, as the Fighting Illini are ranked 15th in the country in rebounding margin and 23rd in the country in offensive rebound percentage.

ILLINOIS PLAYER TO WATCH: G Makira Cook

Makira Cook came over from Dayton with new head coach Shauna Green and has been an instant hit for the Illini. Last year as a member of the Flyers, Cook averaged 14.8 points and 3.9 rebounds, while shooting 38.0% from behind the arc. She was an All-Atlantic 10 selection and won Most Improved Player in the conference.

So far this season, Cook has been even better. Over 12 games she is averaging 18.3 points per game, while shooting 49.4% from the floor and 47.9% from behind the arc. Her top performance of the season was against Indiana when she went for 33 points on 12/25 shooting from the floor.

Cook missed the Missouri and FAU games due to injury, but returned against Wisconsin on Thursday to score 22 points on 7/17 shooting, including 3/5 from behind the arc. She hasn’t been afraid to shoot it as of late, as she is averaging 18.8 shots over her last six games.

KEY MATCHUP: Iowa Defense vs Illinois Three Point Shooters

The Illini rank 230^th in the country in three-point shooting rate and on average they shoot 19.07 three pointers per game, which amounts to 30.1% of their shot attempts. Despite ranking in the bottom half of the country in three-point attempts, the Illini are tops in the country three-point shooting at 41.9%.

Jada Peebles (50.9%), Genesis Bryant (50.0%) and Makira Cook (47.9%) combine to average 6.0 three point makes per game on 12.1 attempts per game. The rest of the team is averaging just 2.0 makes per game on 6.9 attempts. The Hawkeyes will need to know where those three players are on the floor at all times because they can hit their shots at a high rate.

LISA BLUDER ON THE ILLINI

“It’s a dangerous game because your players have a mentality of the old Illinois, and this is the new Illinois. Players thought for a long time that Illinois has been down and that’s true, but this is not the same Illinois team…My project today in practice is to convince them that this is a totally different team.”

“A transfer from Dayton (Makira Cook) who was a player of the year, transfer from North Carolina State (Genesis Bryant) and then Adalia McKenzie…They may be the best trio of guards in the conference.”

“They’re shooting 42% from three and 30% of their shots come from three which isn’t low, but it’s not high either. I really think they do a good job of taking what’s there. They do a lot of dribble penetration and if they can get to the rim, they’re going to get to the rim. They’re smart and they’ll pitch for open threes if you help too much.”

“They’re pretty darn athletic. They’re quick, they’re physical.”

THE PICK

First year Illinois head coach Shauna Green has done an impressive job turning the Illini around through the non-conference portion of the season. While their non-conference slate ranks 147th in the country, they took care of the games in front of them, including a road win against 12-2 Missouri with Makira Cook out. They also took #4 Indiana to the wire in Bloomington.

The quick turnaround has been helped by Coach Green bringing over a pair of Dayton players from a Flyers team that made the NCAA Tournament last year. Lisa Bluder mentioned that they were surprised to see Makira Cook go to Dayton despite a #82 ranking out of high school by Prospect Nation. Now Cook is with the Illini and is proving that she belongs in a Power 6 conference.

The other Dayton transfer, Brynn Shoup-Hill has started every game and is second on the team in offensive rebounds. After averaging just 6.0 minutes for the Flyers last year, Shoup-Hill has stepped into a starting role and is averaging 23.8 minutes for the Illini.

The third transfer in the starting lineup is North Carolina State transfer guard Genesis Bryant. Bryant has burst onto the scene in Champaign after averaging just 5.4 minutes per game for the Wolfpack last season. She has scored in double figures ten times, including a recent triple-double against Florida Atlantic where she went for 22 points, 10 rebounds and 12 assists. She is also shooting 50.0% from three-point range and leads the team in assists.

The starting lineup is finished up with a pair of players that do return from last year’s Illinois team. Guard Adalia McKenzie is second on the team in scoring (16.5 ppg) and is shooting 52.6% from inside the arc. McKenzie has scored in double figures 11 times, including a career-high 26 points and eight rebounds last time out against Wisconsin. Forward Kendall Bostic rounds out the starting five and is a rebounding threat more than anything. She has scored in double figures just three times, but has reached double figures in rebounding in seven times, as well as 3+ offensive rebounds in eight games. Keeping her off the glass on the offensive end could be a big thing to look back to if they game is close.

Off the bench the Illini are only going to use a couple of players. 5’10 guard Jada Peebles is essentially another starter coming off the bench, as she is averaging 26.6 minutes per game and started in place of Cook when she missed two games earlier this month. She is a threat outside, as she leads the with a 50.9% three-point shooting percentage.

5’9 Jayla Oden has made 11 starts, but has given way to Genesis Bryant over the last three games. She has struggled shooting from outside, but just had a season-high 14 points against FAU last week. 6’3 center Geovana Lopes is the final name to know off the Illinois bench. She is averaging just 8.9 minutes per game, but brings some size to the post area if the Illini feel that is necessary against Monika Czinano.

Here is a look at some important statistics…

2pt FG: Iowa 5th (56.6%) Illinois 61st (50.0%)

3pt FG: Illinois 1st (41.9%) Iowa 41st (35.7%)

3pt Rate: Iowa 82nd (38.0%) Illinois 230th (30.1%)

TO: Iowa 27th (13.1) Illinois 80th (14.5)

Off Pts/100 Possessions: Illinois 11st (112.0) Iowa 16th (110.8)

Def Pts/100 Possessions: Illinois 31st (80.4) Iowa 114th (87.7)

Possessions Per Gm: Iowa 19th (77.0) Illinois 140th (71.8)

Off Rebounding: Illinois 23rd (39.3%) Iowa 307th (25.5%)

Def Rebounding: Iowa 2nd (78.3%) Illinois 50th (73.5%)

This a dangerous game. It’s a fairly quick turnaround from Thursday to Sunday and they are traveling on the road to face an Illini team that is much different from recent years. The Hawkeyes have won seven in a row in the series, but Lisa Bluder says that it means next to nothing when facing a team with multiple new faces.

“They could care less about who Iowa is right,? said Bluder. “They haven’t had all of these losses to Iowa because these kids haven’t been there.”

For Iowa, they are expected to win this game because they are ranked in the top 15 in the country. For Illinois, this is a chance to show that their weak non-conference schedule does not mean that they aren’t a good team. The Illini are going to be motivated. WarrenNolan.com has Iowa escaping with a close 76-69 win and the Hawkeyes are going to have to bring their A game if they are going to win. IOWA 79 ILLINOIS 70