Iowa WBB Tip Time Preview - at Indiana

#5 IOWA HAWKEYES (19-4) (11-1) at #2 INDIANA HOOSIERS (22-1) (12-1)

TIME: 5:30pm

TV: Big Ten Network – Matt Schumaker and Christy Winters Scott

SERIES: 76th Meeting – Iowa leads the series 54-21

THE NUMBERS

OFFENSE: IOWA: 88.0 PPG, 50.5% FG, 36.4% 3PT, 14.0 TO INDIANA: 81.3 PPG, 50.1% FG, 36.1% 3PT, 12.9 TO

DEFENSE: IOWA: 70.6 PPG, 39.6% FG, 28.9% 3PT, 14.7 TO, +6.9 REB MARGIN INDIANA: 59.6 PPG, 37.6% FG, 30.9% 3PT, 17.1 TO, +4.9 REB MARGIN

PROJECTED LINEUPS

IOWA HAWKEYES

6’0 PG Caitlin Clark – 27.6 PPG, 8.0 REB, 8.2 AST, 37.4% 3PT

5’9 G Gabbie Marshall – 4.4 PPG, 30.6% FG, 33 STL

6’0 G Kate Martin – 6.9 PPG, 4.3 REB, 3.3 AST, 45.5% FG

6’1 F McKenna Warnock – 11.4 PPG, 5.9 REB, 43.7% 3PT

6’3 C Monika Czinano – 18.3 PPG, 6.3 REB, 67.3% FG

INDIANA HOOSIERS

6’0 G Grace Berger – 11.4 PPG, 3.9 REB, 3.6 AST, 50.0% FG

6’2 G Sydney Parrish – 13.0 PPG, 5.9 REB, 37.1% 3PT

5’11 G Chloe Moore-McNeil – 9.0 PPG, 3.8 REB, 5.0 AST, 44.2% FG

6’3 G Yarden Garzon – 12.0 PPG, 4.8 REB, 3.5 AST, 48.6% 3PT

6’3 C Mackenzie Holmes – 22.0 PPG, 7.7 REB, 69.6% FG

IOWA PLAYER TO WATCH: PG Caitlin Clark

It should really be no surprise that during the Hawkeyes eight game winning streak, Caitlin Clark has been playing her best basketball of the season. Since the winning streak began, Clark is averaging 28.4 points, 9.0 rebounds and 10.5 assists per game, including two triple-doubles. Over that stretch, she is also shooting 47.9% from the floor and 38.6% from three-point range. Her performances against Maryland and Penn State this past week got her named the Naismith National Player of the Week.

This pick is an obvious one for a big game like this. What is Caitlin going to do next?

INDIANA PLAYER TO WATCH: G Yarden Garzon

The true freshman 4-star recruit from Israel has lived up to the hype this season and has had a huge impact for the Hoosiers this season. Part of the reason for her quick success in the college game is her experience with the Israeli National Team. Garzon averaged 19.2 points per game during the 2021 U20 European Challengers.

“She’s played for the Israeli national team and she is a very very good basketball player,” said Lisa Bluder. “She plays much more mature than her freshman age just because she’s played in international basketball so much and played against older players over and over again.”

Garzon has scored in double figures 15 times this season, but does a little bit of everything for the Hoosiers. She has 4+ assists in ten games and 5+ rebounds in 13 games. Her biggest threat is her ability to shoot from long distance. She is shooting 48.6% from behind the arc, which ranks 1st in the Big Ten and 3rd in the country.

KEY MATCHUP: C Monika Czinano vs C Mackenzie Holmes

This is an easy pick for the matchup to watch, considering it is two of the best post players in the country going at it. Both players were recently named to the Lisa Leslie Center of the Year Top 10 Watch List and are also ranked 2nd and 3rd in the country in shooting percentage. Czinano has 10 games with 20+ points, while Holmes has 15 such games. How this matchup plays out will have a big impact on the result of the game.

Mackenzie Holmes vs Monika Czinano is going to be must see TV on Thursday.

Holmes: 22.0 ppg, 69.6%, 7.7 rpg
Czinano: 18.3 ppg, 67.3% FG, 6.3 rpg

Lisa Bluder commented on the matchup today… pic.twitter.com/xLQpvJY9Hc

— Kyle Huesmann (@HuesmannKyle) February 6, 2023

WHAT TO WATCH FOR…

1. Indiana has improved their three-point shooting. Last year, the Hoosiers had three players shoot more than 100 three-pointers last season, but none of them shot more than 36%. This year, again they have three players with more than 100 three-point attempts, but two of them are shooting over 37%. Indiana is shooting it from outside more this season, increasing their attempts from 14.7 to 19.5 per game from behind the arc. The Hoosiers have jumped from 73rd to 25th in the country in three-point percentage.

Despite that, the Hawkeyes have done a really solid job against three-point shooters as of late. Cassidy Hardin (2/8), Makenna Marisa (0/8), Taylor Mikesell (2/10), Abby Meyers (2/8) and Jaz Shelley (1/7) all struggled against the Iowa defense. Teams are shooting just 28.9% from behind the arc against Iowa.

2. The Hoosiers defense. Indiana is arguably the best defense the Hawkeyes will face in Big Ten play. The Hoosiers come in to the game ranking 1st in the Big Ten in points per game allowed and field goal percentage defense. They rank 27th in the country in points allowed per 100 possessions and 58th in the country in points per game allowed.

The Hawkeyes have faced seven teams in the top 75 in defensive points allowed per 100 possessions. They averaged 82.7 points per game against those teams, with a high of 94 against Michigan (60th) and a low of 70 against Iowa State (75th). In Big Ten play, the Iowa offense has been nearly unstoppable averaging 90.9 ppg in 12 games and they are second in the country in field goal percentage.

“Player to player defense. They may double Monika a little,” said Bluder. “They’re a very sound defensive team. They have excellent help. It’s not like they do anything crazy, it’s just that what they do is really good. They’re long, so they can cover a lot of area.”

It is the Big Ten’s best offense against the best defense. Something has to be knocked off its trend.

3. The Turnover Battle. It seems really cliche to say “turnovers could decide the game” because it is what every coach says will be when a game is expected to be tightly contested. The Hoosiers rank in the top 20 in least turnovers per game and force their opponents to turn it over 17.1 times per game. On the other hand, the Hawkeyes are one of just six teams in the country that rank in the top 55 in fewest turnovers, while also ranking in the top 55 in possessions per game. However, they rank 270th in the country and 12th in the Big Ten in forcing turnovers.

4. What this game means for the Big Ten standings and NCAA Tournament.

This game has major implications on both the Big Ten and national stage. The winner will grab sole possession of first place in the Big Ten and essentially lock up a a double bye in the Big Ten Tournament.

In terms of the NCAA Tournament picture, the Hawkeyes are currently projected to be a 2 seed by ESPN, while Indiana is projected as a 1 seed. If Iowa picks up the win, they will have a very good argument to get moved up to the 1 seed line when the selection committee anounces their top 16 late tonight. If Indiana wins, they will be able to further cement themselves as the top seed in a region.

THE PICK

Indiana started the season at #11 and had aspirations of a Big Ten Title. The Hoosiers have lived up the hype and then some. They come into the game with a 22-1 record, including a 6-0 record against AP Top 25 teams and a 15-1 record against Quad 1/2 teams. Their lone loss was at Michigan State on December 29th. Since, they have won ten in a row and are coming off a 69-46 win at Purdue in front of a soldout Mackey Arena crowd.

Grace Berger is really the heart and soul of the team and has started 105 games over the last four seasons. She missed eight games this season due to injury, including their lone loss to MSU. Berger is averaging in double figures and shoots very efficiently from the floor at 50.0% for the season. Her best night since her return was 21 points and seven assists, including 9/11 shooting against Rutgers on January 29th. She has scored in double figures 11 times, but has struggled mightly over her last two games, shooting just 5/20 from the floor.

Oregon transfer Sydney Parrish has been a huge addition for the team this season. She was the 2020 Miss Basketball in Indiana and has returned home to help her home state team. Parrish is second on the team in scoring and is leading the team in three-point attempts per game at 5.04 per game. She is an underrated rebounder averaging 5.9 per game, including 3+ offensive rebounds in four games. She also can cause issues on the defensive end where she has 44 steals this season.

Chloe Moore-McNeil has made a considerable jump from her sophomore to junior season. She has seen her minutes increase from 21.2 to 32.8 this season and she has become a very good ball handler. Last year, Moore-McNeil had 30 assists to 31 turnovers, but has turned on a dime this season. She has 114 assists to 34 turnovers, which is good for a 3.35 assist/turnover ratio. That ranks 3rd in the entire country. She has also scored in double figures 11 times.

Yarden Garzon and Mackenzie Holmes have both been detailed at other points of the preview, but will be in the starting lineup. Garzon, like Berger, is looking for a bounce back shooting night. She is just 3/11 over the last two games and has scored just eight points.

Holmes is very much a player that you have to just limit as much as possible. It is nearly impossible to fully stop her, as she does not have bad shooting nights. In 23 games this season, Holmes has yet to have a game below 50% shooting and has shot better than 70% 13 times. She is also a problem on the offensive glass with 11 games of 3+ offensive rebounds. Iowa was able to get her in foul trouble last year with 12 fouls in three games.

Off the bench, Coach Teri Moren only uses a couple of players consistently. Minnesota transfer G Sara Scalia is the final player in the three-point shooting trio for the Hoosiers. She left Minnesota in seventh in career three-point makes with 214. Her shooting percentage from long distance has dipped from 41.3% to 31.8% this season, but she is still a very dangerous shooter. Scalia has six games with 3+ three pointers this season.

True freshman G Lexus Bargesser is the other player of the bench to know. She is averaging just 8.8 minutes per game, but has appeared in all 23 games. Bargesser is averaging 2.1 points and 1.2 rebounds per game.

Here are some important stats to know…

2pt FG: Iowa 1st (58.8%) Indiana 5th (56.9%)

3pt FG: Iowa 22nd (36.4%) Indiana 25th (36.1%)

3pt Rate: Iowa 86th (37.1%) Indiana 180th (32.4%)

TO: Indiana 18th (12.9) Iowa 55th (14.0)

FORCED TO: Indiana 127th (17.1) Iowa 270th (14.7)

Off Pts/100 Possessions: Iowa 4th (112.9) Indiana 5th (112.1)

Def Pts/100 Possessions: Indiana 27th (82.0) Iowa 155th (90.4)

Possessions Per Gm: Iowa 12th (77.1) Indiana 122nd (72.1)

Off Rebounding: Indiana 205th (30.0%) Iowa 282nd (27.1%)

Def Rebounding: Iowa 6th (76.9%) Indiana 57th (72.7%)

It was addressed above, but this is a really big game with implications not only for the Big Ten, but potentially for the NCAA Tournament. The Hoosiers have won ten games in a row since they lost to Michigan State, while Iowa has been one of the hottest teams in the country with three ranked wins in the last month. Iowa had the upper hand last year in the series winning all three matchups, including the Big Ten Tournament Title game in Indianapolis.

WarrenNolan.com projects Indiana to win 83-74, which seems a little steep in terms of margin of victory. While these teams are different than last season, the margin of victory in their three games last year was just 6.0 ppg. Both teams matchup well with each other and it feels like this is destined to be a close game. The game is a coinflip and it may come down to who executes better and handles the environment best. Caitlin Clark and the Hawkeye offense has just been rolling too well to go against them. IOWA 81 INDIANA 77