Iowa WBB Tip Time Preview - Indiana

#2 INDIANA HOOSIERS (26-1) vs #6 IOWA HAWKEYES (22-6) (14-3)

TIME: 1:00pm

TV: ESPN – Dave O’Brien, Rebecca Lobo and Holly Rowe

THE NUMBERS

OFFENSE: IOWA: 87.6 PPG, 50.8% FG, 36.9% 3PT, 14.5 TO INDIANA: 81.1 PPG, 50.2% FG, 36.7% 3PT, 12.8 TO

DEFENSE: IOWA: 70.9 PPG, 39.9% FG, 29.6% 3PT, 14.6 TO, +6.8 REB MARGIN INDIANA: 60.0 PPG, 38.6% FG, 30.0% 3PT, 16.7 TO, +4.7 REB MARGIN

PROJECTED LINEUPS

IOWA HAWKEYES

6’0 PG Caitlin Clark – 27.0 PPG, 7.4 REB, 8.1 AST, 37.9% 3PT

5’9 G Gabbie Marshall – 4.9 PPG, 31.3% 3PT

6’0 G Kate Martin – 6.9 PPG, 4.1 REB, 3.4 AST, 46.3% FG

6’1 F McKenna Warnock – 11.0 PPG, 5.8 REB, 41.1% 3PT

6’3 C Monika Czinano – 17.3 PPG, 6.4 REB, 66.9% FG

INDIANA HOOSIERS

6’0 PG Grace Berger – 12.2 PPG, 4.6 REB, 5.8 AST, 48.7% FG

5’11 Chloe Moore-McNeil – 9.2 PPG, 4.1 REB, 4.9 AST, 44.0% FG

6’2 G Sydney Parrish – 12.1 PPG, 5.6 REB, 36.2% 3PT

6’3 F Yarden Garzon – 11.4 PPG, 4.9 REB, 46.9% 3PT

6’3 C Mackenzie Holmes – 22.6 PPG, 7.4 REB, 69.2% FG

IOWA PLAYER TO WATCH: G Gabbie Marshall

Gabbie Marshall is a three-point shooter, but has struggled to get her shot to fall for a good portion of the season. As of late, Marshall has quietly started to gain some confidence. Over the last five games, she is 13/19 (68.4%), including a 5/10 night against Maryland. If Gabbie can keep her hot hand going in today’s game, she could be an x-factor for the Hawkeyes.

INDIANA PLAYER TO WATCH: G Grace Berger

Grace Berger was a game-changer in the first matchup in Bloomington. She went for 17 points in the second half and helped turn a closely contested game into an Indiana win. Berger finished the game with 26 points on 10/20 shooting, as well as nine rebounds and six assists.

Lately, she has been doing a bit of everything. Against Ohio State she had 16 points, 10 rebounds and six assists. Then against Purdue, Berger went for 14 points, four rebounds and 10 assists. She is a game-changer for the Hoosiers.

KEY MATCHUP: C Mackenzie Holmes vs C Monika Czinano

It’s pretty fair to say that this matchup decided the first game in Bloomington. It was the matchup to watch and it will be again today. Mackenzie Holmes scored 24 points on 10/17 shooting, including eight third quarter points when the Hoosiers took the lead. For the season, Holmes is averaging 22.6 points per game and is shooting an impressive 69.2% from the floor. That ranks second in the country.

“She’s changed her game a lot this past year,” said Monika Czinano. “She’s been dribblingmore than she ever has. I used to say that she was the most similar to my game, but she’s developed a lot of dribbling and a lot of different moves.”

Monika Czinano, as all Iowa fans know, is also one of the top post players in the country. She is averaging 13.7 points and 6.4 rebounds per game, while sitting just behind Holmes at third in the country with a 66.9% field goal percentage.

However, in the first matchup Czinano got into foul trouble, which limited her some. Mackenzie Holmes also played great defense and took Czinano’s offensive threat out of the game. Monika scored just six points on 3/6 shooting.

“They always play behind the back. They’re always a really physical team. They kind of do what we do in the post,” said Czinano. “We kind of took ourselves out of (the first game). It was our own misktes that made it worse for us.”

If the Hawkeyes are going to win today, they will need Monika to stay out of foul trouble and be a bigger contributor than she was in the first matchup.

KEY TO THE GAME: Limit turnovers

In the first matchup, the Hawkeyes turned the ball over on the first three possessions of both the first and second quarter. That is not an ideal start to a quarter. They turned the ball over 18 times, which turned into 14 points for Indiana. The Hoosiers are 20th in the country in turnovers and the Hawkeyes are 255th in forcing turnovers, so Iowa cannot rely on that being a source of many points. That means offensively, the Hawkeyes cannot afford to give the Hoosiers points.

THE BREAKDOWN

Indiana is having a storybook season. They are 26-1, won the Big Ten regular season title and are in line to be a one seed in the NCAA Tournament. They’ve done it against tough competition, as their 19-1 (.950) record against quad one and two teams leads the country. The Hoosiers took down the Hawkeyes in Bloomington by a final score of 87-78 back on February 9th.

The challenge of facing Mackenzie Holmes has been well documented this season. She has scored 20+ points in 19 games this season and has not shot below 50% in a game this season. A big reason for that is the three-point shooting of her teammates. That has forced teams out to the guard the perimeter.

Guard Sydney Parrish and Yarden Garzon are the top threats from behind the arc. They combine to average 3.9 three-pointers per game. Garzon has knocked down 3+ three-pointers in 11 games, but is just 8/25 (32.0%) over the last six games. She scored just eight points in their win over Iowa in the first matchup, but hit a couple of big shots in the second half. Parrish has 3+ three-pointers in six games. She as well has struggled as of late and is just 1/9 over the last three games.

Rounding out the starting lineup is guards Grace Berger and Chloe Moore-McNeil. Berger is our player to watch today because of her performance in the first game. She is the leader of this team and is also the teams second leading scorer. Berger also is shooting 49.1% from inside the arc. Moore-McNeil has increased her three-point shooting this year, but of the six large contributors in the rotation, she is the lowest scorer. Her task will be to guard Caitlin Clark. The Hoosiers held Clark to 12/28 shooting and eight turnovers to ten assists.

Off the bench, the main threat is three-point shooting guard Sara Scalia. She is averaging 9.4 points per game and shooting 34.4% from three-point range. Over her last nine games, Scalia is 18/39 (46.2%) from behind the arc. She has scored in double figures four times over that stretch, including a season-high 24 points against Ohio State. Iowa needs to know where she is on the floor at all times.

G Lexus Bargesser (8.0 mins), F Lilly Meister (6.1 mins) and G Henna Sandvik (7.5 mins) will also see the floor this afternoon.

Here are some important stats to know for today’s matchup…

2pt FG: Iowa 1st (59.3%) Indiana 4th (56.7%)

3pt FG: Iowa 17th (36.9%) Indiana 18th (36.7%)

3pt Rate: Iowa 80th (37.7%) Indiana 175th (32.4%)

TO: Indiana 20th (12.8) Iowa 88th (14.5)

FORCED TO: Indiana 129th (16.7) Iowa 255th (14.6)

Off Pts/100 Possessions: Iowa 4th (112.9) Indiana (111.9)

Def Pts/100 Possessions: Indiana 26th (82.9) Iowa 168th (91.3)

Possessions Per Gm: Iowa 8th (76.9) Indiana 97th (72.2)

Off Rebounding: Indiana 233rd (29.0%) Iowa 259th (27.9%)

Def Rebounding: Iowa 5th (76.3%) Indiana 28th (73.8%)

THE PICK

The Hawkeyes were hoping that today was going to have Big Ten regular season title implications. They were hoping that they could hoist a trophy if they won. That is not how things played out, but Iowa still has a chance to get some revenge and add a top five victory to the resume.

“Coach Jensen said you just kind of have to redirct your dreams,” said Caitlin Clark. “We can’t be Big Ten champions anymore, but we still have an opportunity in front of us to win a really big game and give our fans something to cheer about. We’re playing for seeding in the NCAA Tournament too.”

WarrenNolan.com projects Indiana to win 81-76, but this game has a similar feel to last year’s regular season finale against Michigan. Sold out crowd and a big game with postseason implications. If the Hawkeyes limit turnovers, get Monika involved and use the crowd to their advantage, they will have a good shot. Don’t pick against a sold out Carver. IOWA 84 INDIANA 80