Iowa WBB Tip Time Preview - Nebraska

NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS (12-8) (4-5) at #10 IOWA HAWKEYES (16-4) (8-1)

TIME: 12:00pm

TV: FOX – Brandon Gaudin and Sarah Kustok

SERIES: 36th Meeting – Iowa leads the series 20-15 (won six in a row)

THE NUMBERS

OFFENSE: IOWA: 87.7 PPG, 49.9% FG, 36.6% 3PT, 13.8 TO NEBRASKA: 69.8 PPG, 40.8% FG, 32.4% 3PT, 15.5 TO

DEFENSE: IOWA: 70.7 PPG, 39.8% FG, 29.8% 3PT, 14.9 TO, +6.4 REB MARGIN NEBRASKA: 62.0 PPG, 37.5% FG, 32.5% 3PT, 16.3 TO, +3.8 REB MARGIN

PROJECTED LINEUPS

IOWA HAWKEYES

6’0 PG Caitlin Clark – 26.8 PPG, 7.7 REB, 7.9 AST, 36.1% 3PT

6’0 G Kate Martin – 7.0 PPG, 4.0 REB, 3.1 AST, 45.6% 3PT

5’9 G Gabbie Marshall – 4.6 PPG, 30.0% FG, 30 steals

6’1 F McKenna Warnock (Questionable) – 11.9 PPG, 5.9 REB, 44.0% 3PT

6’3 C Monika Czinano – 18.2 PPG, 6.5 REB, 66.2% FG

NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS

5’9 PG Jaz Shelley – 12.9 PPG, 4.2 REB, 6.3 AST, 36.5% 3PT

5’9 G Sam Haiby – 8.8 PPG, 5.1 REB, 34.1% FG

5’9 G Maddie Krull – 5.3 PPG, 35.0%

6’2 F Isabelle Bourne – 10.5 PPG, 6.4 REB, 54.1% FG

6’3 C Alexis Markowski – 12.2 PPG, 9.4 REB, 46.8% FG, 35.6% 3PT

IOWA PLAYER TO WATCH: C Monika Czinano

Monika Czinano has led the nation in shooting percentage each of the last two seasons, so watching her put the ball in the basket with great efficiency shouldn’t be surprising. However, Czinano has made 22/24 (92%) over her last two games and is shooting 76.8% from the floor in the month of January. An impressive hot streak.

In three matchups against the Huskers a year ago, Monika averaged 24.3 points per game and shot 30/42 (71.4%) from the floor. She is an easy choice as the player to watch today.

NEBRASKA PLAYER TO WATCH: C Alexis Markowski

Markowski brings some of the same challenges to the table that came with facing Ohio State’s Rebeka Mikulasikova back on Monday. Tall centers that can step out to the three point line and knock down shots, but also score and rebound the ball inside.

“They’re very similar post players. Both of them are really good down low, but they’re also really good on the three point line,” said Lisa Bluder. “We can use a lot of the same things that we did (against Mikulasikova).”

Markowski isn’t quite the same threat from outside, but was 6/7 from behind the arc in last years game at Carver. She is averaging 2.25 three point attempts per game this season. Her offensive rebounding could be an issue, as she is averging 3.1 per game and has 18 over her last four games.

KEY MATCHUP: Iowa perimeter defense vs Nebraska 3pt shooting

It is pretty simple when it comes to winning and losing for the Huskers. When they are winning, they are taking and making three-pointers. When they are struggling, they are not.

In 12 wins: 121/317 (38.2%)

In 8 losses: 43/189 (22.8%)

“When they’re winning, their threes are falling and when they aren’t, they’re not winning,” said Bluder. “The defensive transition where they get a lot of those spot up threes. We have to be really good in that area…When you’re guarding fours and fives that can shoot really well from three, it can be tricky at times.”

Jaz Shelley averages 5.8 three point attempts per game, but then it is six players that average 2-4 attempts per game. A lot of players to keep an eye on in transition situations. The Hawkeyes will need to defend the perimeter because a good day from behind the arc almost always leads to a win for the Cornhuskers.

THE PICK

To this point of the season, it is fair to say that the Cornhuskers have been a bit of a disappointment. They opened the season at #22 in the country and were considered to be a darkhorse in the Big Ten Title race. It has not panned out that way, as they come in with 12-8 record and 4-5 mark in conference play. Still, they are dangerous team when they are hitting shots from outside.

PG Jaz Shelley runs the offense, leading the team in points, assists, three-pointers and steals. Shelley has seen a bit of a drop in three point shooting percentage, but is still a very dangerous shooter. She has four games with 4+ made three-pointers, including two games with seven. The preseason Naismith Award Watch List selection is the best player on this team.

Guard Sam Haiby has been relatively new addition to the starting lineup. Haiby played just 6 minutes over the first 11 games of the season due to injury, but has started the last seven. Haiby has averaged in double figures each of the last four seasons and is getting back into form. She has scored in double figures five times, including 16 points against Ohio State. South Dakota transfer G Maddie Krull has scored in double figures in three of the last five games, but is averaging just 5.2 shots per game.

F Isabelle Bourne is averging in double figures this season and has nine games with 10+ points this season. Bourne averaged 13.0 points per game last season against the Hawkeyes. She shoots the ball well inside the three point line at 56.0%. The previously mentioned Alexis Markowski rounds out the projected starting lineup. She has scored in double figures 13 times and is shooting 50.0% inside the arc. Her offensive rebounding could be a concern if the Hawkeyes do not make boxing out a priority.

Head Coach Amy Williams is not afraid to use her bench. So far in Big Ten play, the Huskers have used five players off the bench. Lately, it has been true freshman 5’8 G Callin Hake getting the most minutes off the bench. Over the last seven games, Hake is averaging 8.9 points and 18.7 minutes per game, while knocking down multiple three-pointers in five of those games.

6’3 F Annika Stewart has come off the bench in each of her three years with the Huskers and has the ability to be a scoring threat. Her shooting numbers are down this year, but she is coming off 9 points and 9 rebounds against Maryland. She also had a career-high 23 points against Corpus Christi earlier in the year.

The three other players that could come off the bench haven’t been huge contributors in Big Ten play. 6’1 G Kendall Moriarty (17.7 mins), 6’2 F Kendall Coley (11.8 mins) and true freshman 6’5 center Maggie Mendelson (10.1 mins) are combining for just 6.6 points per game in Big Ten play.

Here are some important stats to keep an eye on going into the matchup…

2pt FG: Iowa 3rd (58.0%) Nebraska 133rd (46.5%)

3pt FG: Iowa 23rd (36.6%) Nebraska 126th (32.4%)

3pt Rate: Nebraska 49th (40.2%) Iowa 78th (37.8%)

TO: Iowa 45th (13.8) Nebraska 134th (15.5)

Off Pts/100 Possessions: Iowa 5th (112.9) Nebraska 115th (95.6)

Defense Pts/100 Possessions: Nebraska 62nd (85.0) Iowa 164th (90.8)

Possessions Per Gm: Iowa 18th (76.7) Nebraska 182nd (70.8)

Off Rebounding: Nebraska 149th (32.1%) Iowa 277th (27.3%)

Def Rebounding: Iowa 11th (76.4%) Nebraska 45th (73.2%)

The Hawkeyes have won six in a row in the rivalry, including all three last year. The Huskers surely feel like they are due for a win in the series and have the firepower to get it done. There is also still the question of if McKenna Warnock will be able to play for Iowa, however, they showed no issues against Ohio State.

WarrenNolan.com is pretty confident in the Hawkeyes and has them winning 80-64. Iowa has won five in a row, including the win on Monday against #2 Ohio State. Feels like a bit of a letdown spot off of the big win, so it may be a little bit closer than expected. Hawkeyes pull away a bit in the second half. IOWA 85 NEBRASKA 74