Iowa WBB Tip Time Preview - at Nebraska

#7 IOWA HAWKEYES (21-5) (13-2) at NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS (14-12) (6-9)

TIME: 1:00pm

TV: Big Ten Network – Mike Hall and Brenda VanLengen

SERIES: 37th Meeting – Iowa leads the series 21-15 (Iowa has won 8 straight)

THE NUMBERS

OFFENSE: IOWA: 88.6 PPG, 51.4% FG, 36.9% 3PT, 14.1 TO NEBRASKA: 71.2 PPG, 41.0% FG, 33.3% 3PT, 15.9 TO

DEFENSE: IOWA: 70.3 PPG, 39.8% FG, 29.0% 3PT, 14.7 TO, +7.4 REB MARGIN NEBRASKA: 65.4 PPG, 39.0% FG, 32.4% 3PT, 15.3 TO, +4.3 REB MARGIN

PROJECTED LINEUPS

IOWA HAWKEYES

6’0 PG Caitlin Clark – 27.2 PPG, 7.6 REB, 8.3 AST, 37.7% 3PT

5’9 G Gabbie Marshall – 4.4 PPG, 32.3% FG

6’0 G Kate Martin – 6.8 PPG, 4.3 REB, 3.3 AST

6’1 F McKenna Warnock – 11.5 PPG, 5.8 REB, 43.3% 3PT

6’3 C Monika Czinano – 17.7 PPG, 6.3 REB, 66.9% FG

NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS

5’9 G Jaz Shelley – 13.5 PPG, 4.3 REB, 6.4 AST, 35.2% 3PT

5’9 G Maddie Krull – 5.9 PPG, 39.5% FG

5’9 G Sam Haiby – 10.4 PPG, 5.4 REB, 35.1% FG

6’2 F Isabelle Bourne – 12.2 PPG, 6.4 REB, 49.4% FG

6’3 C Alexis Markowski – 12.3 PPG, 10.2 REB, 44.9% FG

IOWA PLAYER TO WATCH: F McKenna Warnock

Last time these two teams faced in Iowa City on January 28th, McKenna Warnock was not in the lineup due to a rib injury. Since Warnock has returned, she has played pretty well, including a double-double against Indiana and 16 points last time out against Wisconsin.

The Hawkeyes having their #3 back in the lineup for this matchup will make a difference in this game.

NEBRASKA PLAYER TO WATCH: C Alexis Markowski

The Hawkeyes held Markowski to 4/10 shooting and 1/5 from three-point range in their first matchup, but she still finished with 12 points and 11 rebounds. She may not be the best player on the team (Jaz Shelley). However, she is unique matchup for the Hawkeyes because she is a post that can step out to the perimeter. She is averaging just 2.4 three-point attempts per game, but was 6/7 in Iowa City last year and attempted five against Iowa earlier this year. Markowski also averages 3.2 offensive rebounds and has 4+ offensive rebounds in 12 games.

KEY MATCHUP: Nebraska Three-Point Shooting vs Iowa perimeter defense

The Huskers win and lose based on how they shoot three-pointers. In their 14 wins, Nebraska is shooting 38.4% from behind the arc. Conversely, in their 12 losses, they are shooting just 22.8% from three-point range. For Iowa, they just need to keep doing what they are doing. The Hawkeyes rank 78th in the country in three-point defense, holding opponents to just 29.7% from behind the arc. Jaz Shelley was just 1/7 from behind the arc in the last matchup.

Nebraska is an interesting three-point shooting team because it is not multiple players shooting 5+ three-pointers a game. Jaz Shelley averages 6.2 attempts per game and then six players average between 1.8 and 2.9 attempts per game. Not a lot of attempts, but a lot of players that can shoot them and make them

THE PICK

The Cornhuskers have been a pretty big disappointment this season, after starting as the preseason #22 team in the country. They have lost five of their last seven games, including a recent loss to Minnesota that knocked them out of the most recent bracket projection. The bad news? It means Nebraska is in dire need of a big win, so Iowa is going to get their best shot.

The Huskers starting five is averaging in double figures and is led by point guard Jaz Shelley. Her shooting numbers are down a bit this season and only scored 10 points in the first matchup, but can heat up at any time. She shot 40.6% from long distance last season and has made 4+ three-pointers in four games this season, including two games with seven. Last time out against Minnesota, Shelley was 7/13 from three and had a season-high 37 points.

Sam Haiby and Maddie Krull round out the guards in the starting lineup. Haiby missed much of the first half of the season, but has been a solid contributor in the second half. She had a team-high 16 points against Iowa and has scored in double figures ten times in 14 games since returning from injury. Krull has been in the starting lineup 17 of the last 18 games. She has scored in double figures in five of the last 11 games, including 13 points against Iowa.

Isabelle Bourne and Alexis Markowski are the two inside players for Nebraska, combining 24.5 points per game. Bourne is shooting 58.6% from inside the three-point line and has scored in double figures in ten of 15 Big Ten games, including a season-high 21 points last time out against Minnesota. She also has eight games with 3+ offensive rebounds. Markowski was already mentioned because of the unique challenge she presents for Iowa. She has been pretty efficient inside the arc, shooting 47.3% from inside the arc and has shot better than 50% in 11 games.

Off the bench, Coach Amy Williams uses several players off the bench. 6’3 F Annika Stewart (12.9 mins) and true freshman 5’8 G Callin Hake (13.7 mins) are the most impactful. Stewart is shooting 42% from the floor, but has scored in double figures just once in Big Ten play. Still, she is averaging 5.7 points in just 12.9 minutes of action per game. Her best performance was 9 points and 9 rebounds, including four offesnive rebounds against Maryland.

Callin Hake is a 35.7% three-point shooter off the bench and is second on the team in three-pointers made with 30. Despite averaging under 15 mins a game, Hake has made multiple three-pointers in nine games, including a season-high four against Penn State. 6’1 G Kendall Moriarty (3.3 ppg, 15.7 mins) and 6’2 F Kendall Coley (1.7 ppg, 10.3 mins) will also likely see the floor for some minutes today.

Here are some important stats to know for today’s matchup…

2pt FG: Iowa 1st (59.8%) Nebraska 141st (46.2%)

3pt FG: Iowa 15th (36.9%) Nebraska 85th (33.3%)

3pt Rate: Nebraska 45th (40.5%) Iowa 87th (37.1%)

TO: Iowa 60th (14.1) Nebraska 182nd (15.9)

FORCED TO: Nebraska 216th (15.3) Iowa 261st (14.7)

Off Pts/100 Possessions: Iowa 4th (114.0) Nebraska 97th (96.6)

Def Pts/100 Possessions: Nebraska 117th (88.7) Iowa 148th (90.4)

Possessions Per Gm: Iowa 11th (77.0) Nebraska 122nd (71.9)

Off Rebounding: Nebraska 157th (31.7%) Iowa 276th (27.4%)

Def Rebounding: Iowa 4th (77.2%) Nebraska 21st (74.0%)

This is going to be a tough matchup for the Hawkeyes, whether the Huskers have been struggling or not. Lisa Bluder said that they are expecting 12,000+ fans at Pinnacle Bank Arena, which will be a pretty hostile environment. The Huskers are an up and down team, which makes it a bit hard to project this game. You never know what team is going to show up. However, Nebraska’s NCAA Tournament chances may rest on getting a win against Iowa or Illinois in their next two games, so it is safe to say the Huskers will be motivated.

WarrenNolan.com projects Iowa to win 79-68, but it feels like it will be closer than that. This is a dangerous game for Iowa. Road game, up and down opponent and one that needs a win badly. The Hawkeyes win, but it’s close and never comfortable. IOWA 84 NEBRASKA 79