Iowa WBB Tip Time Preview - Wisconsin

WISCONSIN BADGERS (8-18) (3-11) at #7 IOWA HAWKEYES (20-5) (12-2)

TIME: 6:30pm

TV: BTN+ – John Evans and Michael Merrick

SERIES: 77th Meeting – Iowa leads the series 56-20 (Iowa has won 27 in a row)

THE NUMBERS

OFFENSE: IOWA: 88.5 PPG, 50.9% FG, 36.7% 3PT, 14.1 TO WISCONSIN: 68.4 PPG, 42.6% FG, 32.1% 3PT, 17.9 TO

DEFENSE: IOWA: 70.7 PPG, 39.8% FG, 29.1% 3PT, 14.6 TO, +7.4 REB MARGIN WISCONSIN: 73.7 PPG, 42.9% FG, 34.8% 3PT, 15.2 TO, -1.8 REB MARGIN

PROJECTED LINEUPS

IOWA HAWKEYES

6’0 PG Caitlin Clark – 27.4 PPG, 7.6 REB, 8.3 AST, 37.1% 3PT

5’9 G Gabbie Marshall – 4.5 PPG, 32.3% FG

6’0 G Kate Martin – 6.8 PPG, 4.4 REB, 3.2 AST, 45.8% FG

6’1 F McKenna Warnock – 11.3 PPG, 6.0 REB, 44.1% 3PT

6’3 C Monika Czinano – 17.7 PPG, 6.3 REB, 66.7% FG

WISCONSIN BADGERS

6’0 G Julie Pospisilova – 13.2 PPG, 5.0 REB, 4.2 AST, 38.1% FG

5’10 G Maty Wilke – 11.2 PPG, 3.9 REB, 41.6% FG

5’6 G Avery LaBarbera – 11.0 PPG, 5.3 REB, 37.3% 3PT

6’0 G Brooke Schramek – 10.8 PPG, 4.0 REB, 43.6% FG

6’4 F Serah Williams (Questionable) – 13.2 PPG, 5.2 REB, 55.5% FG

IOWA PLAYER TO WATCH: G Caitlin Clark

There’s a pretty simple reason for keeping an eye on the NPOY candidate today. These are the types of games that always give Caitlin Clark a shot at a triple-double. Facing an outmatched team, Clark generally does a really good job of getting her teammates involved and plenty of rebounds are available on the defense end of the floor.

In the first matchup against the Badgers, Clark went for 22 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists. Look for her to be triple-double watch in the second half tonight.

WISCONSIN PLAYER TO WATCH: G Avery LaBarbera

The Holy Cross transfer spent the first half of the season trying to get her three-point shot to fall. She was 0/3 against the Hawkeyes in their first matchup and at that point was just 9/39 (23.1%) from behind the arc. Whatever the issue was, she has figured it out and fixed it. In the 16 games since, LaBarbera is 35/79 (44.3%) from long distance, including six games with 3+ three-pointers.

Iowa has done a really good job against three-point shooters lately, but LaBarbera has been shooting it very well.

MATCHUP TO WATCH: C Monika Czinano vs F Serah Williams

The rising true freshman Serah Williams vs the veteran Monika Czinano. The 6’4 Wisconsin forward has been really solid for the Badgers this season, but got injured against Minnesota, so her availability is up in the air.

If she can play, this will be the matchup to watch. Monika ranks third in the country in field goal percentage at 66.7%, but Williams checks in at 32nd in the country with a 55.5% field goal percentage. Last meeting on December 4th, Czinano went for 18 points and eight rebounds on 9/10 shooting, while Williams went for 15 points on 5/10 shooting.

THE PICK

The Badgers come into the game with an 8-18 record, including a 3-11 record in Big Ten play. They do have a win over Michigan State, but are 0-5 against ranked teams, including a 102-71 loss to Iowa back on December 4th in Madison.

The big question for Wisconsin coming into this game is the health of F Serah Williams. She is the teams leading scorer and rebounder, while leading the team in field goal percentage. She was injured in the fourth quarter against Minnesota and did not return to the game. If she cannot go, the Badgers will likely go with a very small lineup.

The lineup does feature three players that combine to take 14.8 three-point attempts per game. One is the previously mentioned Avery LaBarbera. She has scored in double figures in ten of the last 16 games, including a season-high 20 points against Minnesota on January 8th. Maty Wilke and Julie Pospisilova have not had quite the same fortunes from behind the arc. Both are right around 30% for the season. Still, the Iowa defense must guard the perimeter to keep them from gaining any confidence early in the game. Pospisilova is tied for the team lead in points per game and leads the team in assists.

Rounding out the starting lineup is Brooke Schramek. She is fifth on the team in scoring, but still averages 10.8 points per game. Schramek is not the same threat as the other guards from three-point range, but is shooting 48.9% from inside the arc. She has scored in double figures ten times in the last 16 games, including a season-high 20 points against Minnesota last time out.

Wisconsin is averaging 10.5 offensive rebounds per game, but the Hawkeyes outrebounded them 35-19 in the first matchup, including 25-5 on the defensive boards. Iowa will be looking to have a similar rebounding performance tonight. The Hawkeyes also turned 18 Badger turnovers into 28 points.

The interesting thing about the Badgers is the minutes that their starting lineup is getting. Their four guards average 30+ minutes per game, while Serah Williams is averaging 24.7 minutes. Caitlin Clark is the only player on the Iowa roster averaging more than 30 minutes for comparison.

Off the bench, it has been quite the mixed bag for the Badgers. Many players have seen game action, but none of them have made a really big impact, which is why the starting lineup has gotten so many minutes. G Sania Copeland (13.4 mins) and G Natalie Leuzinger (10.1 mins) average the most minutes, but combine to score just 3.6 points per game.

Here are some important stats to keep an eye on…

2pt FG: Iowa 1st (59.2%) Wisconsin 72nd (48.8%)

3pt FG: Iowa 19th (36.7%) Wisconsin 127th (32.1%)

3pt Rate: Wisconsin 84th (37.2%) Iowa (37.0%)

TO: Iowa 59th (14.1) Wisconsin 283rd (17.8)

FORCED TO: Wisconsin 226th (15.2) Iowa 259th (14.6)

Off Pts/100 Possessions: Iowa 4th (113.5) Wisconsin (93.8)

Def Pts/100 Possessions: Iowa 149th (90.5) Wisconsin 345th (101.6)

Possessions Per Gm: Iowa 10th (77.2) Wisconsin 110th (72.2)

Off Rebounding: Wisconsin 194th (30.4%) Iowa 271st (27.6%)

Def Rebounding: Iowa 5th (77.1%) Wisconsin 264th (66.6%)

For the Hawkeyes, this is the last “tune up” game before the schedule ramps back up for the rest of the regular season and then as we all know, nothing is easy in postseason play. The team knows that every game counts and they need a good performance tonight.

“It’s just like what we saw against Rutgers. Keeping the intensity high no matter what, keeping the focus high and limiting mistakes,” said Bluder. “As you go down the stretch, the team that makes the fewest mistakes is often the team that wins. Looking crisp and executing. That’s really what we’re looking for.”

Iowa has dominated the Badgers over the last two decades with a 32-2 record, including 27 straight wins in the series. This one shouldn’t be much different, with the Wisconsin defense ranking 345th in points allowed per 100 possessions. WarrenNolan.com projects Iowa to win 93-58. I’ll go with a similar score. IOWA 100 WISCONSIN 66