Iowa Women's Basketball Bracketology: Late-January Update

We are still 50 days from the unveiling of the 68-team NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament bracket, but the Hawkeyes find themselves in a precarious position. For the first time in quite a few years, Iowa goes into the late stages of the season with work to do to secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament. The Hawkeyes recently snapped a five-game losing streak with a dominate road win over Washington, but the losing skid did a healthy amount of damage to their tournament chances. HawkeyeReport takes a look at Iowa’s current resume, what the bracket projections are saying and what remains on the schedule.

How is the Hawkeyes resume shaping up through 20 games?

LINK: Iowa Women’s Basketball Resume – Warren Nolan Site

Although the Hawkeyes have had chances, they have not been able to close out games and grab a couple of Quad 1 victories. They currently sit at 0-5 against Q1 opponents, but are 8-2 against Q2/3 teams and have taken care of business against teams outside the NET Top 100. The most notable part of the resume is that Iowa has totaled eight wins against the NET Top 100, which is more than any other team on bubble right now. Iowa State (7), Illinois (6) and Oregon (6) are all on their heels, while two of the three have notched a Quad 1 win. That’s something Iowa needs to get a couple of down the stretch.

What the brackets are saying…

ESPN (Jan 24): Last Four In – Following the win over Washington, ESPN’s Charlie Creme kept the Hawkeyes in his projected field, but they are still very much in a dangerous position. With the bubble being loaded by team’s Iowa has played, this projected has the Hawkeyes facing Iowa State in a First Four matchup in the College Park Regional hosted by 3 seed Maryland. Ole Miss (6) and Norfolk State (14) are the other teams in this projected regional, while Oklahoma (4) and Michigan State (5) would be potential Sweet 16 matchups.

CBS (Jan 24): 9 Seed – Connor Groel of CBS is much more bullish on where the Hawkeyes stand on the at-large ladder, with them listed as a 9 seed. Although Groel does not fill out a full bracket, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt would be potential 8 seed opponents. In this projection, possible regional locations, hosted by a 1 seed, would be South Carolina or Notre Dame.

HerHoopStats (Jan 21): Last Four In – Megan Gauer of HerHoopStats had the Hawkeyes as one of the last teams in, in her latest projection, but it came before their win over Washington. Much like the ESPN projection, the bubble has a lot of familiar faces, so the First Four matchup is against Virginia Tech in College Park Regional hosted by 3 seed Maryland. Ole Miss (6) and Lehigh (14) round out the projected regional, while NC State (4) and Michigan State (5) would be potential Sweet 16 matchups.

Autumn Johnson (Jan 21): Last Four Byes – Autumn Johnson, in this projection for NCAA.com, has Iowa amongst the Last Four Byes, which means they are just able to avoid a First Four opening round matchup. In this projection, Iowa is an 11 seed in the Manhattan Regional, hosted by 3 seed Kansas State, with a first round matchup against 6 seed California. Gonzaga (14) is the other team in the regional, while North Carolina (4) and West Virginia (5) would be potential Sweet 16 matchups.

What remains on the schedule for the Hawkeyes…

The remaining schedule for the Hawkeyes provides a unique mix of great opportunities and menacing land mines. Life on the bubble is a roller coaster, and each result can change the trajectory of the season. Starting with the load of opportunities, Iowa is still set to face six Quad 1 opponents, including three games against AP Top 15 teams. Road trips to Minnesota, Nebraska and Michigan are all winnable and each would be a major boost to the Hawkeyes resume.

The remaining home slate is treacherous and it’s not the two top ten teams that make it that way. It’s the trio of Quad 4 opponents that Iowa must traverse past that delivers the concern. Northwestern has a win over Utah, while they went to the wire with Michigan and Indiana. Rutgers hung with Michigan State, while Wisconsin stuck around for a while with Maryland and Ohio State. Per Torvik, the Hawkeyes are favored by at least 19 points in all three of those games, but there is no room for a slip up.

Here is a look at the rest of the schedule and where each team sits in the NET rankings...

Quad 1: vs USC (5), @Minnesota (29), @Nebraska (31), @Ohio State (15), vs UCLA (4), @Michigan (23)

Quad 2: None

Quad 3: None

Quad 4: vs Northwestern (140), vs Rutgers (115), vs Wisconsin (113)

Up Next: The Hawkeyes are set to host the Northwestern Wildcats on Tuesday evening at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Tipoff is set for 7:00pm CT on the Big Ten Network.