Iowa Women's Basketball Bracketology: Mid-February Update

It’s getting to be that time of the year in college basketball. The pivotal time of the year where we start looking at bracket projections and breaking down what teams need to do to bolster their resume before conference tournaments begin. For the Iowa Women’s Basketball team, realistically, they have no worries about making the NCAA Tournament for an 8th consecutive season. After enduring a five-game losing streak that put them squarely on the bubble, the Hawkeyes responded with a six-game winning streak to basically lock up a spot in the tournament. Still, there is work to be done, and chances to move up another seed line or two. With just three regular season games remaining, now is a good time to take a look at where the Hawkeyes stand in the various tournament projections. HawkeyeReport has your Iowa Women’s Basketball Bracketology update.

Breaking down the Hawkeyes resume

LINK: Iowa Women’s Basketball Resume – Warren Nolan Site

Iowa currently comes in at #29 in the NET rankings. They are 3-5 against Quad 1 opponents, including a marquee win over USC. The Hawkeyes have a combined 7-8 record against Quad 1/2 teams, while they do not have a loss outside of the NET top 40. Taking it one step further, Iowa has totaled 11 wins against the NET top 100. The resume is plenty good enough to earn an at-large bid, but five of their seven losses have come by a combined 19 points, so missed opportunities are certainly coming in to play when looking at where the Hawkeyes stand in the various bracket projections.

What the brackets are saying…

ESPN (Feb 18): 9 Seed – Charlie Creme of ESPN has the Hawkeyes as a 9 seed in his latest projection, slated to face off against 8 seed Creighton in the Austin Regional hosted by 1 seed Texas. They are matched up with the Columbus Regional, which has Ohio State (4) and Alabama (5) as potential Sweet Sixteen opponents.

College Sports Madness (Feb 18): 8 Seed – This projection has Iowa listed as an 8 seed, facing off against 9 seed Princeton in the Austin Regional hosted by 1 seed Texas. The regional also includes play-in game with 16 seeds High Point and Jackson State. They are matched up with the Waco Regional, which has Baylor (4) and Alabama (5) as potential Sweet Sixteen opponents.

HerHoopStats (Feb 14): 8 Seed – The latest projection from Megan Gauer came prior to Iowa’s loss at Ohio State, but that shouldn’t change things too much, if at all. She has the Hawkeyes as an 8 seed, facing off against 9 seed South Dakota State in the Columbia Regional hosted by 1 seed South Carolina. This regional also includes a play-n game with 16 seeds High Point and Alabama A&M. They are matched up with the Lexington Regional, which has Kentucky (4) and Michigan State (5) as potential Sweet Sixteen opponents.

CBS (Feb 14): 7 Seed – Connor Groel of CBS has been an Iowa supporter this season, generally projecting them a seed line or two higher than everyone else. In his latest projection, also prior to the loss at OSU, he had the Hawkeyes listed as a 7 seed. Groel does not fill out an entire bracket, but Columbia and South Dakota State would be potential 10 seed matchups, while LSU, Kansas State and UConn would be 2 seed host locations.

Autumn Johnson (Feb 11): 9 Seed – The oldest projection of the bunch, Iowa has defeated Rutgers and lost at Ohio State since the latest update by Autumn Johnson, but the picture hasn’t changed much with those results. Johnson has the Hawkeyes listed as a 9 seed in this projection, with an opening round matchup against 8 seed Richmond in the Columbia Regional hosted by 1 seed South Carolina.

Here’s how the Hawkeyes resume stacks up against in the conversation for a 6 seed…

Iowa: 18-8 overall (NET 29) – (3-5 vs Q1), (7-8 vs Q1/2), (11-0 vs Q3/4)

Utah: 20-6 overall (NET 22) – (2-5 vs Q1), (8-5 vs Q1/2), (12-1 vs Q3/4)

Michigan: 18-8 overall (NET 24) – (3-7 vs Q1), (8-7 vs Q1/2), (10-1 vs Q3/4)

Ole Miss: 17-8 overall (NET 13) – (4-7 vs Q1), (5-7 vs Q1/2), (12-1 vs Q3/4)

Baylor: 22-5 overall (NET 18) – (2-4 vs Q1), (5-5 vs Q1/2), (17-0 vs Q3/4)

Georgia Tech: 21-5 overall (NET 26) – (1-3 vs Q1), (7-5 vs Q1/2), (14-0 vs Q3/4)

What remains on the schedule for the Hawkeyes…

Only a couple of games remain for Jan Jensen’s squad before the Big Ten Tournament, but there are still a couple of big-time chances to bolster their resume. If they want a chance to get out of the no man’s land that is the 7-10 seed area, they need to win at least two of three to finish the regular season and then get a couple of wins at the Big Ten Tournament. Using the Bart Torvik projections and the mred conference tournament site, Iowa would be set to face Michigan State in the 8v9 game if they defeat Michigan and Wisconsin, with everything else going according to Torvik projections. Going 1-1 at the Big Ten Tournament would get Iowa to 21-10 and likely with 5 Q1 wins, but that might only be enough to get up to a 7 seed.

Here is a look at the rest of the schedule and where each team sits in the NET rankings...

Quad 1: vs UCLA (5), @Michigan (24)

Quad 2: None

Quad 3: None

Quad 4: vs Wisconsin (107)

Up Next: The Hawkeyes are set to host the #3 UCLA Bruins on Sunday afternoon at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Tipoff is set for 1:00pm CT on Peacock.