Iowa Women's Basketball Tip Time Preview - Colorado

NCAA TOURNAMENT SWEET SIXTEEN

#6 COLORADO BUFFALOES (25-8) vs #2 IOWA HAWKEYES (28-6)

TIME: 6:30pm

TV: ESPN – Pam Ward, Stephanie White and Holly Rowe

SERIES: 7th Meeting – Series tied 3-3

THE NUMBERS

OFFENSE: IOWA: 87.4 PPG, 51.0% FG, 37.4% 3PT, 14.4 TO COLORADO: 69.0 PPG, 43.5% FG, 35.0% 3PT, 15.4 TO

DEFENSE: IOWA: 70.4 PPG, 39.6% FG, 29.6% 3PT, 14.4 TO, +6.0 REB MARGIN COLORADO: 58.5 PPG, 37.7% FG, 29.5% 3PT, 16.7 TO, +5.1 REB MARGIN

PROJECTED LINEUPS

IOWA HAWKEYES

6’0 PG Caitlin Clark – 26.8 PPG, 7.3 REB, 8.6 AST, 38.2% 3PT, 47.0% FG

5’9 G Gabbie Marshall – 6.0 PPG, 38.2% 3PT

6’0 G Kate Martin – 7.3 PPG, 4.1 REB, 3.5 AST, 46.6% FG

6’1 F McKenna Warnock – 10.9 PPG, 6.1 REB, 39.1% 3PT

6’3 C Monika Czinano – 17.5 PPG, 6.6 REB, 67.5% FG

COLORADO BUFFALOES

5’7 G Jaylyn Sherrod – 11.3 PPG, 3.2 REB, 4.8 AST, 40.8% FG

6’1 G Tayanna Jones – 5.0 PPG, 4.2 REB, 45.4% FG

5’11 G Frida Formann – 11.7 PPG, 3.5 REB, 39.0% 3PT

6’3 C Quay Miller – 13.1 PPG, 8.7 REB, 42.4% FG

6’3 C Aaronette Vonleh – 12.1 PPG, 4.5 REB, 58.7% FG

IOWA PLAYER TO WATCH: F Hannah Stuelke

After injuring her ankle during practice last Saturday, Stuelke missed the Hawkeyes second round matchup against Georgia. While McKenna Warnock and Monika Czinano combined for 17 rebounds, Iowa still missed Stuelke on the glass. The Bulldogs were able to pull down 13 offensive rebounds to the Hawkeyes six.

Today, Iowa faces a Colorado team that averages 11.9 offensive rebounds per game and is 46th in the country in total rebounding. Hannah is averaging 12.7 rebounds per 40 minutes and is second on the team in offensive rebounds, despite playing half the minutes of the starters. She will be a big boost on the glass.

COLORADO PLAYER TO WATCH: C Quay Miller

Miller is the best player on the Buffaloes roster and was an All-PAC 12 selection. She leads the team in scoring, as well as both offensive and defensive rebounding. She is a little more versatile than a traditional post, as she can shoot it from behind the arc and drive to the hoop. Miller shoots 33.3% from outside and 46.1% inside the arc. She has scored 15+ points in 11 games and has registered 3+ offensive rebounds 13 times.

KEY MATCHUP: G Jaylyn Sherrod vs Iowa guards

PAC 12 All-Defensive team selection Jaylyn Sherrod has the ability to change a game with her defense. She led the conference in steals (77) and steals per game (2.41). Sherrod has 12 games with 3+ steals this season, including a seven steal game against Oregon State.

There is a difference between going up tempo on offense and just forcing things that aren’t there. The Hawkeye guards need to stay away from the latter because Sherrod and the Colorado defense know how to force turnovers.

“She’s really fast and quick. She loves defense. She’s going to get up in your shorts, going to pressure the ball, going to try to get in your head. She’s going to run through passing lanes,” said Gabbie Marshall. “She plays with a lot of energy and passion, and she is that leader for their team.”

THE BREAKDOWN

Colorado defeated 11 seed MTSU 82-60 in the first round and took down the 3 seed Duke Blue Devils in Durham 61-53 (OT) to advance to the Sweet Sixteen. Coming into the NCAA Tournament, the Buffaloes had a 23-8 record, including a 9-7 record against Quad 1 teams. They were 7-7 against NCAA Tournament teams during the regular season and 3-4 against the NET Top 25.

The defense and leadership abilities of guard Jaylyn Sherrod have already been discussed, but she is also a threat on the offensive end of the floor. She averages in double figures and leads the team with 158 assists. Sherrod has scored 10+ points in 20 games, including a career-high 27 points against Washington State. She has the ability to change a game at both ends.

Frida Formann and Tayanna Jones round out the starting guards for Colorado. Formann is the top three-point shooter on the team, averaging 5.5 attempts per game. She knocks down the deep ball at a 39.0% clip and has made 3+ three-pointers in 11 games, including a season-high five against MTSU in the first round.

Jones has seen her minutes drop off as the second half of the season continued, but she still has made 31 starts this season. She averages just 5.0 points per game and is averaging just 2.4 points per game over the past 18 games.

In the post, Colorado resembles the Georgia Bulldogs. Two tall, physical and tough players. The type of personnel you don’t see in Big Ten play.

“Georgia plays with two bigs, so does Colorado. That’s not something we normally see in the Big Ten,” said Monika Czinano. “I think we’re really lucky to have played Georgia and have that experience under our belt for Colorado…When you play with two centers, we both have to box out harder, crash harder, all these different things, and it kind of adjusts our game a little bit, adjusts our shots a little bit. So having that under our belt, just kind of having a sense for the physicality of it, is really helpful for us.”

6’3 C Quay Miller was already mentioned as the player to watch for the Buffaloes. Her game resembles some of the versatile centers that the Hawkeyes have played in Big Ten play. She is second on the team in three-point makes, but can put it on the floor and drive, as well as go grab boards on both sides of the floor. 6’3 C Aaronette Vonleh is the traditional post that most would expect and has been playing her best basketball as of late. Over her last five games, Vonleh is averaging 16.2 points on 36/52 (69.2%) shooting. She has scored in double figures 24 times and ranks 16th in the country in field goal percentage.

Coming off the bench, Coach JR Payne uses a couple of players, but the Buffaloes get 77.1% of their scoring from the starting lineup. 5’9 G Kindyll Wetta is most notable bench contributor averaging 5.4 points, 3.3 assists, 1.7 steals and 24.8 minutes per game. She is shooting just 28.1% over her last seven games.

G Tameiya Sadler (4.9 ppg, 18.6 mins), G Jada Wynn (3.4 ppg, 12.1 mins) and 6’3 Brianna McLeod (2.6 ppg, 10.2 mins) will also see some minutes. They have combined to score in double figures just five times.

Here are some important stats to know ahead of the matchup…

2pt FG: Iowa 1st (59.5%) Colorado 114th (46.9%)

3pt FG: Iowa 9th (37.4%) Colorado 36th (35.0%)

3pt Rate: Iowa 61st (38.8%) Colorado 267th (28.3%)

TO: Iowa 89th (14.4) Colorado 165th (15.5)

FORCED TO: Colorado 125th (16.7) Iowa 263rd (14.4)

Off pts/100 possessions: Iowa 2nd (113.5) Colorado 80th (97.9)

Def pts/100 possessions: Colorado 33rd (83.9) Iowa 167th (91.6)

Possessions Per Gm: Iowa 10th (76.4) Colorado 224th (69.2)

Off Rebounding: Colorado 68th (34.4%) Iowa 278th (27.1%)

Def Rebounding: Iowa 8th (75.7%) Colorado 65th (72.3%)

THE PICK

The Hawkeyes are facing their third defensive minded team of the tournament. However, unlike the other two matchups, Colorado is able to win games in the 70’s. The Buffaloes are 18-1 when they score 70+ points.

On the other hand, Colorado hasn’t faced an offensive team like Iowa. The Hawkeyes are 10th in possessions per game, while the Buffaloes closest opponent faced was Utah (45th). They really struggled to take care of the ball against Duke when they pace picked up and that is what Iowa is going to try to do for 40 minutes. WarrenNolan.com projects Iowa to win 76-67 and that feels like a pretty reasonable margin of victory. IOWA 79 COLORADO 69