Iowa Women's Basketball Tip Time Preview - 10 seed Georgia

NCAA TOURNAMENT SECOND ROUND

#10 GEORGIA BULLDOGS (22-11) AT #2 IOWA HAWKEYES (27-6)

TIME: 2:00pm CT

TV: ABC – Dave O’Brien and Christy Winters Scott

SERIES: Sixth Meeting – Georgia leads the series 3-2

THE NUMBERS

OFFENSE: IOWA: 87.8 PPG, 51.1% FG, 37.2% 3PT, 14.3 TO GEORGIA: 67.1 PPG, 43.6% FG, 30.1% 3PT, 16.4 TO

DEFENSE: IOWA: 70.5 PPG, 39.6% FG, 29.4% 3PT, 14.3 TO, +6.5 REB MARGIN GEORGIA: 58.3 PPG, 37.8% FG, 31.1% 3PT, 20.2 TO, +4.0 REB MARGIN

PROJECTED LINEUPS

IOWA HAWKEYES

6’0 PG Caitlin Clark – 27.0 PPG, 7.5 REB, 8.5 AST, 38.1% 3PT

5’9 G Gabbie Marshall – 5.7 PPG, 36.7% 3PT, 1.5 STLS

6’0 G Kate Martin – 7.5 PPG, 4.2 REB, 3.5 AST, 47.0% FG

6’1 F McKenna Warnock – 10.8 PPG, 6.0 REB, 39.4% 3PT

6’3 C Monika Czinano – 17.4 PPG, 6.5 REB, 68.0% FG

GEORGIA BULLDOGS

5’8 G Diamond Battles – 14.5 PPG, 3.3 REB, 2.9 AST, 38.7% FG

5’7 G Chloe Chapman – 3.0 PPG, 2.3 AST, 32.4% FG

5’9 G Audrey Warren – 8.1 PPG, 3.1 REB, 36.2% FG

6’0 F Jordan Isaacs – 2.2 PPG, 3.3 REB, 52.7% FG

6’3 C Brittney Smith – 11.5 PPG, 5.2 REB, 49.7% FG

IOWA PLAYER TO WATCH: F McKenna Warnock

Warnock had a huge night in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals against Maryland, but other than that, she has had a pretty quiet last month and a half. Since a rib injury she sustained against Michigan State, McKenna has not been the same scorer. Going into that game in East Lansing, Warnock was averaging 12.4 points per game. In the 12 games since she returned injury, McKenna is averaging just 9.0 points per game and is shooting just 13/44 (29.5%) from behind the arc.

The Bulldogs have size on the interior, so the Hawkeyes will be looking to spread the floor to open up the inside. If that is going to happen, Warnock is going to have to be one of players to step up and force the Georgia players to guard further out on the perimeter.

GEORGIA PLAYER TO WATCH: G Diamond Battles

Diamond Battles has been the most important player on the floor for the Bulldogs this season. On the offensive end, Battles leads the team, averaging 14.5 points per game. She has scored in double figures 26 times this season, including seven games with 20+ points. Battles led the Bulldogs with 21 points against Florida State on Friday.

On the defensive end, Diamond makes, maybe even more of an impact. The AAC Defensive Player of the Year last year at UCF came to the SEC and earned a spot on the SEC All-Defensive team this season. Battles finshed with 56 steals on the season, including nine steals in a two-game stretch against tournament teams Mississippi State and LSU.

KEY MATCHUP: The battle inside the paint

Monika Czinano (and Hannah Stuelke) has faced really good post players all season. Aaliyah Edwards, Stephanie Soares, Mackenzie Holmes, Rebeka Mikulasikova, Alexis Markowski and even Diamond Miller could be thrown into that category. However, the Georgia Bulldogs bring more size to the floor than any other team they’ve faced. They have four players 6’1 or taller that average valuable minutes.

It will be a really great matchup on both ends of the floor. We will have Georgia, the #24 offensive rebounding team up against Iowa, the #5 defensive rebounding team. On the other end of the floor, it is Iowa, the #1 team in 2-point field goal percentage, up against Georgia, the #70 team in the country in 2-point percentage defense.

ONE STRENGTH AND ONE WEAKNESS FOR UGA: Defense and Three-point shooting

The Bulldogs run the same defense that Coach Katie Abrahamson-Henderson used at UCF when the Hawkeyes faced the Knights a year ago. It is an extended 2-3 zone defense that is similar to the ‘buzz defense’. Iowa defeated UCF 69-61 last season, shooting 43.1% from the floor and turning it over 24 times.

“I think that was a really blessing to be able to see them last year because with a one-day prep, you don’t have as much time to prepare for an opponent as you usually would during the year. So I think it was a real advantage for us to play against UCF,” said head coach Lisa Bluder.

Georgia ranks 34th in the country in scoring defense, 21st in defensive points per possession and are 19th in forced turnovers per game. By the numbers, it is the best defense Iowa has seen since Connecticut. The Hawkeyes lost that game 86-79.

The rotations of a Buzz Defense pic.twitter.com/hIDznej2n0

— Kyle Huesmann (@HuesmannKyle) December 17, 2021

The biggest weakness for Georgia is their inability to threaten teams from behind the arc. They rank 341st in three-pointers per game (3.4) and 358th in three-point attempt rate (19.6%). Just 15.3% of the Bulldogs points this season have come from behind the arc. Caitlin Clark has 111 three-point makes, while the entire Georgia team has just 113. Unless they are able to really shorten the game and keep it in the 60’s or low 70’s, the Bulldogs are going to have to knock down some from long distance.

THE GEORGIA PERSONNEL BREAKDOWN

In the first season under Abrahamson-Henderson, the Bulldogs have made the NCAA Tournament with ten players that were not on last year’s squad that went 21-10. Georgia went 21-11 in the regular season, including a 9-7 mark in SEC play. They defeated 7 seed Florida State 66-54 in the opening round. The Bulldogs went 1-9 against teams that made the field of 68, with a 9.8-point average margin of defeat.

The offensive and defensive abilities of Diamond Battles have already been discussed, so we turn to her former teammate at UCF Brittney Smith. She is second on the team in scoring, averaging 11.5 points and 5.2 boards per game. Smith has scored in double figures 21 times this season and has pulled down 8+ rebounds in seven games. The Seminoles held her to just 2 points on 1/4 shooting on Friday.

Audrey Warren is second on the team in minutes per game and averages 8.1 points per game. She has scored in double figures 11 times this season, including a season-high 18 points against NC State earlier in the year. Warren is shooting just 29.4% from three-point range, but knocked down three against Florida State.

Chloe Chapman and Jordan Isaacs round out the projected starting five, but haven’t been huge contributors on the offensive end of the floor. They combine to average just 5.2 points and 5.1 rebounds per game. Isaacs did have ten points and six rebounds against Florida State in the first round.

Off the bench, Coach Abrahamson-Henderson uses four main players. 6’2 F Javyn Nicholson is the third leading scorer for the Bulldogs, averaging 11.5 points and 26.0 minutes per game. She has scored in double figures 16 times, but her biggest threat is on the glass. Nicholson leads the team in rebouding, including 2.48 offensive rebounds per game. She has seven games with 5+ offensive rebounds. 6’3 C Malury Bates is the other interior player that comes off the bench. Bates averages 4.9 points, 2.8 points and 13.2 minutes per game.

5’7 G Alisha Lewis and 6’1 F Zoesha Smith wrap up the bench options for the Bulldogs. Although Lewis comes off the bench, she brings some big things to the table on both sides of the floor. She ranks 12th in the country in assist/turnover ratio, with 123 assists to 50 turnovers. Lewis also leads the team with 33 three-point makes and was fifth in the SEC with 59 steals. Zoesha Smith averages 6.7 points, 3.9 rebounds and 17.3 minutes per game. She has scored in double figures seven times and has really stepped up as of late. Smith has 51 points on 21/39 (53.8%) over the last five games.

Here are some important stats to know for today’s game…

2pt FG: Iowa 1st (59.9) Georgia 114th (46.9%)

3pt FG: Iowa 9th (37.2%) Georgia 213th (30.1%)

3pt Rate: Iowa 64th (38.5%) Georgia 358th (19.6%)

TO: Iowa 81st (14.3) Georgia 223rd (16.4)

FORCED TO: Georgia 19th (20.2) Iowa 271st (14.3)

Off Pts/100 Possessions: Iowa 4th (113.9) Georgia 119th (95.2)

Def pts/100 Possessions: Georgia 21st (82.7) Iowa 164th (91.6)

Possessions Per Gm: Iowa 9th (76.5) Georgia 172nd (70.2)

Off Rebounding: Georgia 25th (37.3%) Iowa 269th (27.5%)

Def Rebounding: Iowa 5th (76.0%) Georgia 210th (68.3%)

THE PICK

The results of this game will very much depend on where this game is played point total wise. 163 WBB teams average 65+ points per game. 32 teams average 75+ points per game. Just eight teams average 80+ points per game and Iowa stands alone at the top averaging 87.8 points per game. The Hawkeyes are top 20 in possessions per game. What does that all mean? Not many teams can do what Iowa does offensively.

The Georgia offense is averaging just 67.1 points per game and have scored 75+ points in a game just seven games this season. Only one of those games came against an NCAA Tournament team, so the Bulldogs are not equipped to win a shootout. However, the Bulldogs defense ranks 34th in the country and is just the third top 75 defense they have faced. That will certainly play a role.

If Iowa can spread the floor and handle the size and athleticism on the interior of the Georgia defense, they will be in good shape. When the Hawkeyes hit 80 on the scoreboard, they are 23-3. However, if Iowa’s outside shooters can’t get shots to fall and the size in the post poses a problem it could be a close contest. If Georgia can get this to be a game in the 70’s or even the high 60’s, it will be anyone’s game to win. Iowa is just 4-3 when they score under 80 points.

WarrenNolan.com likes a lower scoring battle, but has Iowa winning 75-63. The Hawkeyes have been playing really well as of late and clicking on the offensive end. They will avenge the loss to Creighton last year and punch their ticket to the Sweet 16. IOWA 82 GEORGIA 66