Iowa Women's Basketball Tip Time Preview: Iowa State

#4 IOWA HAWKEYES (8-1) AT IOWA STATE CYCLONES (4-3)

TIME: 6:00pm CT

TV: ESPN2 – Ryan Ruocco, Rebecca Lobo and Holly Rowe

SERIES: 54th Meeting – Iowa leads the all-time series 30-23

THE NUMBERS

OFFENSE: IOWA: 91.2 PPG, 52.7% FG, 37.0% 3PT, 13.9 TO IOWA STATE: 75.0 PPG, 47.2% FG, 34.9% 3PT, 15.9 TO

DEFENSE: IOWA: 65.1 PPG, 37.0% FG, 27.3% 3PT, 14.7 TO, +10.2 REB MARGIN IOWA STATE: 64.4 PPG, 35.9% FG, 25.9% 3PT, 11.1 TO, +10.8 REB MARGIN

IOWA HAWKEYES PROJECTED LINEUP

Caitlin Clark	Point Guard	6-0/ Sr.	Averaging 29.0 PPG, 6.4 REB and 7.9 AST. Leads the country in points scored (261) and assists (71). 24 pts, 5 reb, 11 ast vs BGSU.
Molly Davis	Guard	5-7/ 5th Sr.	Averaging 6.0 PPG, 3.1 REB and 3.4 AST. Gulf Coast Showcase All-Tournament team. Shooting 51.3% from the floor.
Gabbie Marshall	Guard	5-9/ 5th Sr.	Averaging 5.1 PPG and shooting 34.1% from three-point range. Has made a three-pointer in four straight games.
Kate Martin	Guard	6-0/ Grad Sr	Averaging 14.6 PPG, 5.8 REB and 3.2 AST over the last five games. Shooting 61.2% from the floor. 17 pts, 5 reb, 3 ast vs BGSU.
Sharon Goodman	Center	6-3/RS Jr.	Averaging 10.4 PPG and 5.2 REB. Scored in double figures in four games and is shooting 72.2% from the floor. 12 pts, 11 reb vs BGSU.

IOWA STATE CYCLONES PROJECTED LINEUP

Hannah Belanger	Guard	5-8/ Sr.	Truman State transfer. Averaging 7.7 pts and 3.9 AST. Team-high 15 made three-pointers. Scored in double figures twice.
Kelsey Joens	Guard	5-10/ True Fr.	Averaging 8.6 PPG, 5.7 REB and 3.1 AST. Leads the team with 13 steals. Just 12 pts in their three losses. Iowa City native and sister of Ashley Joens.
Addy Brown	Forward	6-2/ True Fr.	Averaging 14.3 PPG, 6.9 REB and 5.4 AST. Leads the team in minutes per game (32.7). 24 pts, 5 reb, 10 ast vs UNCW.
Nyamer Diew	Forward	6-2/ Sr.	Averaging 10.7 PPG and 5.1 REB. Only player in the rotation with experience against Iowa. Scored in double figures three times this year.
Audi Crooks	Center	6-3/ True Fr.	Chose ISU over Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Oklahoma. Averaging 16.0 PPG and 5.1 REB. Shooting 66.7% from the floor. Double figures in six games.

IOWA STATE PLAYERS TO WATCH: C Audi Crooks and F Addy Brown

The Hawkeyes are very familiar with the four-star Audi Crooks out of Algona, IA. Iowa was in her top 5, but she chose the Cyclones and is off to a good start in her true freshman season. She is averaging 16.0 points and 5.1 rebounds per game, while shooting 66.7% from the floor. Crooks scored a combined 46 points on 17/21 shooting against Drake and Syracuse. ISU is getting her the ball frequently, as she is averaging 9.86 shot attempts per game, which is second on the team. At the free throw line, she has struggled, making just 20 of her 36 attempts (55.6%).

“I think she’s better afoot than people give her credit for. I’m not saying she can play 20 minutes or ten minutes in a row (at a fast pace), but I think she gets up and down the court,” said Lisa Bluder. “I’ve always been impressed with her ability to get up and down the court.”

Another four-star true freshman, forward Addy Brown was rated as the #31 player in the country by ESPN for 2023. She has started all seven games for ISU and is averaging 14.3 points. 6.9 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game. Brown is shooting a team-high 41.4% from three-point range, including four three-pointers last time out against UNC-Wilmington. She is averaging a team-high 10.4 shot attempts per game and is second on the team with a 56.2% shooting percentage. Most notably, Brown gives Iowa State some length in the starting lineup at 6’2 playing the small forward position.

KEY MATCHUP TO WATCH: C Audi Crooks vs C Sharon Goodman and Addi O’Grady

Post play will be a big key in tonight’s matchup. The Cyclones are already heavy underdogs and are tasked with keeping up with the one of the top scoring teams in the country. That means they have to get spirited efforts out of their top scorers and that means Audi Crooks has to have a big night. She is currently ranked ninth in the country in field goal percentage and has put up big games against a pair of quality teams (Drake & Syracuse). Crooks is a big post player with good hands and she can score around the basket. The challenge for Iowa will be keeping her from setting up on the block and getting good looks all game.

That’s where Sharon Goodman and Addi O’Grady come in. How they play defensively against Crooks will be just as important as what they can do on the offensive end. Speaking of offense, Lisa Bluder said that she reminded Sharon this week that she shoots over 70% from the floor herself. If the Hawkeyes get the same Sharon Goodman that is averaging in double figures, then they will be just fine in this matchup of post players.

THE BREAKDOWN

This is a brand new look Iowa State Cyclones team. No more Ashley Joens. No more Lexi Donarski. No more Stephanie Soares. Through seven games, HC Bill Fennelly has played true freshman for 57.2% of the available minutes. Iowa State is 4-3 with wins over Butler, Southern, St Thomas and UNC-Wilmington. Their losses were to Drake, Vanderbilt and Syracuse.

Taking a look at the rest of the projected starting lineup for the Cyclones, Kelsey Joens (5 starts) and Truman State transfer Hannah Belanger (6 starts) are the most likely guards to make a start. Iowa State isn’t quite the same live and die by the three team, but these two like to take the bulk of their looks from three-point range.

Sister of Ashley and Aubrey, Kelsey was rated as the #5 player in Iowa by Prep Girls Hoops for the class of ’23. She is averaging 8.6 points and 5.7 rebounds per game, while 39 of her 54 (72.2%) shot attempts have come from behind the arc. Joens has knocked down multiple threes in five of seven games this seeason. Hannah Belanger comes to Ames, after winning GLVC Player of the Year last season at Truman State. She is averaging 7.7 points and 3.9 assists per game, while 43 of her 56 (76.8%) shot attempts have come from three-point range. Her 3.0 assist-to-turnover ratio is the best of the starters.

Rounding out the starting lineup, is the only player in the rotation that has ever played against Iowa. 6’2 forward Nyamer Diew is third on the team in scoring, averaging 10.7 points and 5.1 rebounds per game. She is average from three-point range (30.0%), but is shooting 51.4% from two-point range. In terms of minutes on the floor, Diew (31.9 mins) and Addy Brown (32.7) will place most of the game for the Clones.

Off the bench, there are a couple of names to be aware of, starting with 6’5 Sacremento State transfer Isnelle Natabou. A First Team All-Big Sky selection last season, Natabou is averaging 6.7 points, 5.9 rebounds and 16.7 minutes per game. She is shooting 58.8% from the floor, but since scoring 14 points in the season opener, she is averaging just 4.5 shots per game. In terms of facing that type of height, the Hawkeyes have already faced Elizabeth Kitley (6’6) and Ayoka Lee (6’6) this season, so it will not be a new experience.

Freshman 5’9 guard Arianna Jackson (20.7 mins) and freshman 6’2 forward Jalynn Bristow (18.4 mins) will also be in the rotation for ISU. The third four-star in the 2023 class, Bristow is averaging 6.7 points and 5.3 rebounds per game, including scoring in double figures each of the last two games. Jackson is averaging 3.5 points and 2.9 assists per game, while she has turned it over just four times in 124 minutes.

The one area that has caused issues for Iowa this season is extra length in an opponents starting lineup. Kansas State has tall guards and a tall center, which can make it a bit tougher to operate an offense. The ‘Cats forced 16 turnovers in the first matchup, but Iowa made adjustments and turned it over just six times in the rematch. The Cyclones will be the same height or taller than Iowa at four spots in the starting lineup, while they can bring 6’2 and 6’5 off the bench. The Hawkeyes will have to take what they learned from the first matchup against K-State and apply it the same way they did in the Gulf Coast Showcase rematch.

“The biggest thing with a longer guard is they can contest shots a little better and they can get in passing angles a little bit better,” said Caitlin Clark. “Whether it’s a small guard, I can be able to shoot over them or pass over them. If it’s a longer guard, hopefully, I can use my speed to get around them.”

A deeper look at the stats behind the matchup between the Hawkeyes and Cyclones…

THE PICK

This series has been really closely contested over the last decade. Eight of the last ten meetings have been decided by single digits, with the average margin of victory being just 7.4 points per game. For the first time in a while, this matchup, on paper, appears to favor the Hawkeyes by a solid margin. In Iowa State’s four wins, the average score is 82.5-54.3, but those four teams have combined for an 8-18 record. In their three losses, the average score is 78.0-65.0 in favor of their opponents, who are a combined 19-5 overall. That does not bode well for the Cyclones going up against an Iowa team that is 8-1.

Bill Fennelly brought in his best ever freshman class, so the future appears to be bright, but taking down the #4 team in the country is going to be a tall task tonight. WarrenNolan.com has the Hawkeyes winning a tight one 76-71, but that feels off. The Cyclones will feed off the sold out crowd and keep it close early, but the Iowa offense will settle in when the excitement surrounding tipoff wears off. A big second quarter run puts the Hawkeyes in control and they get the first 20+ point win in the rivalry since 2010. IOWA 91 IOWA STATE 70