Iowa Women's Basketball Tip Time Preview: Kansas State

KANSAS STATE WILDCATS (2-0) AT #2 IOWA HAWKEYES (3-0)

TIME: 7:30pm CT

TV: FS1 – Sloane Martin and Stephanie White

SERIES: 7th Meeting – Kansas State leads the series 5-1

THE NUMBERS

OFFENSE: IOWA: 92.0 PPG, 49.3% FG, 28.4% 3PT, 12.0 TO KSU: 73.0 PPG, 45.0% FG, 25.0% 3PT, 10.5 TO

DEFENSE: IOWA: 58.3 PPG, 31.3% FG, 27.2% 3PT, 13.3 TO, +13.3 REB MARGIN KSU: 37.0 PPG, 27.6% FG, 28.0% 3PT, 21.0 TO, +12.0 REB MARGIN

PROJECTED LINEUPS

IOWA HAWKEYES

5’7 PG Molly Davis – 2.3 PPG, 3.7 REB, 3.6 AST

6’0 G Caitlin Clark – 32.0 PPG, 8.3 REB, 9.0 AST, 36.7 3PT

5’9 G Gabbie Marshall – 5.7 PPG, 1.6 STL, 26.3% 3PT

6’0 G Kate Martin – 9.0 PPG, 4.3 REB, 47.8% FG

6’2 F Hannah Stuelke – 16.7 PPG, 6.7 REB, 77.8% FG

KANSAS STATE WILDCATS

6’0 PG Gabby Gregory – 4.5 PPG, 4.5 REB, 2.5 AST, 21.4% FG

5’11 G Brylee Glenn – 5.5 PPG, 50.0% FG

6’1 G Jaelyn Glenn – 7.5 PPG, 4.0 REB, 45.5% FG

6’1 G Serena Sundell – 4.5 PPG, 3.5 REB, 5.0 AST

6’6 C Ayoka Lee – 23.0 PPG, 8.5 REB, 66.7% FG

IOWA PLAYER TO WATCH: F Hannah Stuelke

There is no arguing the impact that Hannah Stuelke makes when she is on the floor. Through three games, she is averaging 16.7 points and 6.7 rebounds per game, while playing just 15.9 minutes per game. It’s pretty remarkable what she has been able to do in limited minutes. Unfortunately, she fouled out in just 17:20 against Virginia Tech and had three fouls in 11:55 against Northern Iowa. Tonight, the Hawkeyes need her to stay out of foul trouble, so she can play extended minutes.

KANSAS STATE PLAYER TO WATCH: C Ayoka Lee

The Wildcats return five of the seven players that scored a point in the win over Iowa last season, but for this matchup, center Ayoka Lee is back. She missed last season with an ACL tear, but was a Second Team All-American, as well as Big 12 All-Defensive Team selection during the 2021-22 season. Lee is a 6’6 powerful post player that can out muscle opponents and get position deep in the paint. She ranked 20th in the country with a 56.3% field goal percentage. On top of that, she also uses a short fadeaway shot when she is unable to turn straight to the basket. The Hawkeyes got some experience against Elizabeth Kitley in game two, but Lee is a different type of challenge.

KEY MATCHUP TO WATCH: KSU Three-Point Shooting vs Iowa Three-Point Defense

Last season, the Wildcats ranked 27th in the country in three-point attempt rate (42.9%), which ranked second in the Big 12 behind Iowa State. It is a little head scratching that they ranked all the way down in 234th for three-point percentage (29.5%). This year they’ve shot 40 three-pointers through two games, but have made just 25.0%. What they do have is players that can, on occasion, fill it up from behind the arc. Gabby Gregory made 4+ three-pointers in seven games last season, Jaelyn Glenn made 3+ three-pointers in 15 games last season and Serena Sundell has made 4+ three-pointers in six games during her career. They may not shoot at the highest percentage, but they can get hot and the Hawkeyes will be looking to avoid another Sarah Shematsi performance from last season (6/10 3pt).

THE BREAKDOWN

Kansas State finished last season with a 19-17 record, including a 5-13 mark in Big 12 play and an appearance in the WNIT. The Wildcats return four starters, as well as All-American Ayoka Lee, after she missed last season with an ACL tear. KSU is off to a 2-0 start, with wins over Presbyterian and Little Rock, but those two opponents have combined for an 0-5 start to the season.

These two teams met in the Little Apple last year at Bramlage Coliseum and Iowa held a 74-67 lead with 7:17 to play, but the ‘Cats rallied to cut into the deficit. Gabby Gregory got to the free throw line four times in the last 2:13 and KSU pulled out an 84-83 win, with their last six points coming from the line. The Hawkeyes are anxious to get another shot at the Wildcats and it will come in front of a sold out crowd at Carver-Hawkeye Arena.

“I will bring (the loss) up. I don’t dwell on it though,” said head coach Lisa Bluder. “Don’t hammer it, hammer, hammer because I don’t want them to reemember negative things about Kansas State. I want to use it as motivation, but not to hurt their confidence.”

Lisa Bluder said that watching film on center Ayoka Lee, she feels like she is not quite back to 100% mobility wise, but through two games, she has 46 points and 17 rebounds, while shooting 66.7% from the floor. Those stats came against inferior competition, but during the 2021-22 season, Lee was nothing short of dominate. She scored 20+ points in 16 games, including an NCAA record 61 points in a win over Oklahoma. On top of her scoring, she pulled down double digit rebounds in 20 games, including five games with 5+ offensive rebounds. The Hawkeyes will have their work cut out guarding Lee in the post.

“Lee was out with an injury. She’s back and that makes a big difference for this team. She’s almost 6’7. Probably one of the tallest posts that we will go against all year, so we have to be ready for her,” said Bluder. “She’s a tremendous player and she has an NCAA record for most points scored in a game. We can’t let her have 61 in Carver.”

With Ayoka Lee out last season, it was Gabby Gregory that took the lead as the top scorer. She’s a tough player that finds a way to rebound and score. She can drive to the hoop and finish or get to the line, where she makes 84% of her free throws. Gregory made a team-high 84 three-pointers last year and also averaged 5.3 rebounds per game. Gabby scored 24 points against the Hawkeyes last year, but got 12 of them at the free throw line. She scored 20+ points in 19 games last season, but is just 3/14 from the floor through the first two games of the season.

Serena Sundell was another top scorer for the Wildcats last season, averaging 13.0 points, 4.8 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game. Sundell is on the Nancy Lieberman PG of the Year watch list after ranking 16th in the country with 184 assists last season. She scored in double figures 25 times, but dropped from 53 made 3pt FG to just 19 last year. Somewhat surprisingly, Gregory and Sundell have combined for just 18 points through two games. Their scoring will be a key if they want to upset Iowa again.

Rounding out the starting lineup for Kansas State are the Glenn sisters, Jaelyn and Brylee. Jaelyn averaged 11.3 points, 5.4 rebounds and 2.5 steals per game, including scoring in double figures 24 times. She led the team with a 36.4% three-point percentage. Through two games this year, Jaelyn has 15 points, eight rebounds and six steals. As for Brylee, she averaged 8.3 points, 2.8 rebounds and 1.7 steals per game. She isn’t quite the night in night out scorer that her sister is, but Brylee still scored in double figures 17 times, including a career-high 24 points in a win over Texas Tech.

Despite having Ayoka Lee back in her role as the premier scorer for the Wildcats, the four guards in the starting lineup around her are all capable and dangerous scorers. They managed to stay in the NCAA Tournament conversation for much of the year last season and nearly won 20 games.

“Their point guard (Sundell) is a really quick driver. She can shoot as well. She’s really athletic, but they play a lot of people,” said Kylie Feuerbach. “That just shows their depth in their guard area specifically. I think they all do a little bit of everything. Gregory is a great player. She’s going to do a lot for them, but they have a lot of weapons.”

Off the bench, the ‘Cats have a few names to keep an eye on, starting with Louisville transfer 5’8 guard Zyanna Walker. The four-star, #38 recruit in the class of 2022 spent her freshman year with the Cardinals, where she appeared in just five games. In two games with KSU, Walker has 23 points, 7 rebounds and went 3/3 from 3pt range against Presbyterian.

Arizona transfer 6’3 forward Gisela Sanchez averaged 2.9 ppg as a true freshman in 2021-22 and did not play with the ‘Cats last season. She has 13 points and five rebounds off the bench in two games. Lastly, 6’2 forward Heavenly Greer and 5’6 gurad Taryn Sides have seen considerable minutes off the bench. Greer averaged 2.2 points and 7.5 minutes per game last season, while Sides is a true freshman out of Phillipsburg, KS.

THE PICK

A revenge opportunity for the Hawkeyes in front of a sold out crowd. Iowa was ranked third in the country coming off of an overtime win at Drake and Kansas State shocked the Hawkeyes. Yes, this is a new season, but don’t think for a second that the returning players haven’t had this date circled. It’s not going to be easy. The Wildcats were the first team out of the preseason AP Poll and continue to receive votes after the first week. WarrenNolan.com is pretty confident in Lisa Bluder’s squad, as they have Iowa winning 79-64. If Kansas State continues to struggle from long distance (25.0% so far) and no one steps up like Sarah Shematsi did last year with six three-pointers, there is going to be a lot of pressure on Ayoka Lee to show she is back to full health. As long as Iowa does not commit eight fourth quarter fouls like last year, they should be able to get the win. IOWA 84 KANSAS STATE 74