Iowa Women's Basketball Tip Time Preview: Kansas State

GULF COAST SHOWCASE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME – HERTZ ARENA – ESTERO, FLORIDA

#16 KANSAS STATE WILDCATS (6-0) VS #5 IOWA HAWKEYES (6-1)

TIME: 6:30pm CT

TV: FloHoops ($)

SERIES: 8th Meeting – Kansas State leads the series 6-1

THE NUMBERS

OFFENSE: IOWA: 92.1 PPG, 52.2% FG, 37.1% 3PT, 15.0 TO KANSAS STATE: 69.8 PPG, 44.9% FG, 33.3% 3PT, 13.8 TO

DEFENSE: IOWA: 64.4 PPG, 35.8% FG, 26.7% 3PT, 15.3 TO, +10.9 REB MARGIN KANSAS STATE: 53.4 PPG, 35.2% FG, 15.1% 3PT, 16.6 TO, +8.0 REB MARGIN

PROJECTED STARTING LINEUPS

IOWA HAWKEYES

6’0 G Caitlin Clark – 29.3 PPG, 6.6 REB, 7.7 AST, 37.8% 3PT

5’7 G Molly Davis – 5.1 PPG, 3.3 AST, 48.1% FG

5’9 G Gabbie Marshall – 5.3 PPG, 1.4 STL, 34.4% 3PT

6’0 G Kate Martin – 10.3 PPG, 5.0 REB, 2.4 AST, 57.7% FG

6’3 C Sharon Goodman – 10.6 PPG, 4.3 REB, 75.0% FG

KANSAS STATE WILDCATS

6’0 PG Gabby Gregory – 7.2 PPG, 3.3 AST, 33.3% FG

5’11 G Brylee Glenn – 6.0 PPG, 50.0% FG

6’1 G Jaelyn Glenn – 6.0 PPG, 4.4 REB, 34.5% FG

6’1 G Serena Sundell – 10.4 PPG, 5.4 REB, 38.5% 3PT

6’6 C Ayoka Lee – 17.2 PPG, 7.8 REB, 58.6% FG

IOWA PLAYERS TO WATCH: G Caitlin Clark and G Gabbie Marshall

Caitlin Clark put up 24 points in the loss, but attempted a career-high 32 shots and was just 2/16 from three-point range. To go along with that, she had four turnovers to a season-low three assists. Simply put, she has to be better than she was that night. Over the last three games, Clark has been better, averaging 29.3 points, 5.0 rebounds and 8.0 assists, while shooting 15/28 (53.6%) from three-point range.

In the loss to K-State, players not named Caitlin Clark took just eight shots in the second half. When the Hawkeyes are one-dimensional, they are much easier to guard because Caitlin is forced to do everything on her own. Gabbie Marshall finished with 2 points on 1/4 shooting in the first matchup. Coming off of a good three-point shooting night against FGCU, Marshall needs to get shots up early in the game to try to spread the floor and make the Wildcats guard the perimeter tighter to open up the middle of the defense. The same could be said for the other three-point shooters on the roster (Martin, Feuerbach, McCabe, etc).

KANSAS STATE PLAYER TO WATCH: C Ayoka Lee

Shocking that the All-American on Kansas State’s roster is a player to watch. Ayoka Lee has scored 15+ points in four games, including 22 points on 9/14 shooting in the win over Iowa. She pulled down a game-high 12 rebounds, as well as four offensive rebounds. Lee can score in the paint at a high-level, rebound on both ends of the floor, affect shots with her length and shoots free throws well. She’s a challenge to guard and will be once again tonight.

The offense isn’t really the reason why the ‘Cats are off to a 6-0 start. They rank outside the top 100 in points per game, three-point percentage, and free throw percentage. However, they do have offensive weapons. Serena Sundell is averaging in double figures, while Louisville transfer Zyanna Walker has been a good bench piece early in the year. Add in last years leading scorer Gabby Gregory and the Glenn sisters and KSU has options to score.

KEY MATCHUP #1 TO WATCH: How do the Hawkeyes handle the length of KSU?

In two matchups over the last two years, the Hawkeyes have struggled when it comes to scoring in the normal run of play against K-State. Last season in Manhattan, Iowa scored just 60 points in the normal run of play, while 23 made free throws helped them score 83 points. Earlier this month, the Hawkeyes scored just 46 points in the normal run of play and finished with nine assists to 16 turnovers. They shot just 36.1% from the floor and 9.5% from three-point range.

They have some extra length in the starting lineup that can clog passing lanes, contest shots and overall create some issues for an Iowa offense that loves to go quick. The shortest player in the K-State starting lineup is 5’11, while Ayoka Lee stands at 6’6. They also bring 6’3 forward Gisela Sanchez off the bench. It’s a type of lineup that a lot of teams don’t see very often. When running their half court offense, the Hawkeyes have to be able to take their time, make good decisions and make pinpoint passes. They also have to be able to make shots from three-point range to stretch the defense.

KEY MATCHUP #2 TO WATCH: How does the rebounding battle shake out?

In the first matchup, the Hawkeyes won the rebounding battle on the both ends of the floor. They outrebounded KSU 47-38 overall, 32-27 on the defensive end and 15-11 on the offensive end. Two things. First off, the Wildcats averaged 1.64 points per offensive board to Iowa’s 0.60 points per rebound. The Hawkeyes have to take advantage of the second chance opportunities they get. Secondly, Hannah Stuelke pulled down a team-leading 11 rebounds, including three on the offensive end in that game. She did not play against FGCU and is at best a question mark going into tonight’s game. That likely means Iowa has to find a way to rebound with other players. Sydney Affolter and Kate Martin as small forwards need to be reliable on the glass, while Addi O’Grady may get some more minutes off the bench. If K-State starts pulling down offensive rebounds, Ayoka Lee is really good at converting second chance opportunities.

THE PICK

This is such an interesting game. The two teams just played ten days ago, with K-State winning on the Hawkeyes home floor. Today, the Wildcats are trying to join Northwestern (3), Michigan (3) and Maryland (5) as the only teams to have three wins against Iowa since the 2019-20 season. They would do it in just 373 days. KSU just held the Hawkeyes to their lowest point total (58 pts) since 2019 less than two weeks ago. How much can Iowa change? A lot. Over the last three games, the Hawkeyes are averaging 103.6 points per game, shooting 52.4% from three-point range and 66.6% from two-point range. Grinding out a win in the 70’s is not necessarily the Iowa way, but that’s how the game is going to be won tonight. Lisa Bluder and Co. won’t let K-State get the best of them for a third time in just over a year. IOWA 78 KANSAS STATE 74