Iowa Women's Basketball Tip Time Preview - Louisville

NCAA TOURNAMENT ELITE EIGHT

#5 LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (26-11) vs #2 IOWA HAWKEYES (29-6)

TIME: 8:00pm

TV: ESPN – Andraya Carter, Rebecca Lobo, Ryan Ruocco and Holly Rowe

SERIES: Third Meeting – Louisville leads the series 2-0

THE NUMBERS

OFFENSE: IOWA: 87.3 PPG, 51.1% FG, 37.5% 3PT, 14.3 TO LOUISVILLE: 73.0 PPG, 45.1% FG, 34.4% 3PT, 14.9 TO

DEFENSE: IOWA: 70.5 PPG, 39.7% FG, 29.7% 3PT, 14.3 TO, +5.6 REB MARGIN LOUISVILLE: 63.4 PPG, 39.9% FG, 33.0% 3PT, 17.2 TO, +4.7 REB MARGIN

PROJECTED LINEUPS

IOWA HAWKEYES

6’0 PG Caitlin Clark – 26.9 PPG, 7.2 REB, 8.5 AST, 38.4% 3PT

5’9 G Gabbie Marshall – 6.0 PPG, 37.9% 3PT

6’0 G Kate Martin – 7.6 PPG, 4.2 REB, 3.5 AST, 46.2% FG

6’1 F McKenna Warnock – 10.9 PPG, 6.0 REB, 39.0% 3PT

6’3 C Monika Czinano – 17.4 PPG, 6.6 REB, 67.7% FG

LOUISVILLE CARDINALS

5’7 PG Hailey Van Lith – 19.5 PPG, 4.6 REB, 3.1 AST, 41.1% FG

5’7 G Mykasa Robinson – 6.3 PPG, 5.0 REB, 3.7 AST, 44.9% FG

5’5 G Chrislyn Carr – 11.0 PPG, 2.6 AST, 42.3% 3PT

6’2 F Nyla Harris – 4.3 PPG, 3.6 REB, 51.5% FG

6’3 F Olivia Cochran – 8.1 PPG, 6.3 REB, 49.4% FG

IOWA PLAYER TO WATCH: PG Caitlin Clark

As the saying goes, “big time players make big time plays in big time games”. If the Hawkeyes are going to end the night with a spot in the Final Four, Caitlin Clark will have to have a big night. She had 31 points and eight assists in their win over Colorado on Friday. In games against the NET Top 26, Clark is averaging 29.6 points, 7.1 rebounds and 8.4 assists per game, including two 40+ point games. If Iowa wins tonight, it will be because she filled up that statsheet for points, rebounds and assists.

LOUISVILLE PLAYER TO WATCH: PG Hailey Van Lith

First Team All-ACC selection Hailey Van Lith is up there with Caitlin Clark for top point guards in the country. She has scored 20+ points in 19 games, including a season-high 29 points against Virginia Tech. In the NCAA Tournament she is averaging 22.3 points, 3 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game. Van Lith has seen a large decline in three-point percentage this season, but is still capable of hitting the shot. She has knocked down 3+ three-pointers in seven games this season.

KEY MATCHUP: C Monika Czinano vs F Olivia Cochran

Monika Czinano has been tested in the post the last two rounds against Georgia and Colorado. She has combined for 35 points on 16/25 (64.0%) shooting, while pulling down 16 rebounds. The Bulldogs and Buffaloes were able to get on the offensive glass and that could be an issue in this matchup. Olivia Cochran has pulled down 3+ offensive rebounds in 11 games and averages 2.16 per game. If Monika can have her normal offensive output and also put up a good effort on the glass, the Hawkeyes will be in a good spot.

THE BREAKDOWN

The preseason top ten Louisville Cardinals got off to a 5-4 start this season and lost 10 games in the regular season. However, they have showed their potential in the NCAA Tournament defeating 12 seed Drake, 4 seed Texas and 8 seed Ole Miss. Jeff Walz once again has his team one win away from the Final Four. They have a 9-11 record against Quad 1 opponents and a 5-7 record against the NET Top 25. Louisville went 5-10 against NCAA Tournament participants during the regular season.

Honorable mention All-American Hailey Van Lith was already mentioned as the top player to watch on the Cardinals, but she has a couple of talented guards that join her in the starting lineup. Rock Island native Chrislyn Carr is the teams biggest threat to shoot it from outside. She leads the team with 85 three-pointers and has knocked down 3+ threes in 15 games. Carr has scored in double figures 22 times, including a season-high 27 points against Virginia Tech. She has struggled in the tournament a bit shooting 7/26 (26.9%). G Mykasa Robinson averages 6.3 points per game, but is known for her defense. She was named to the ACC All-Defensive Team and is 8th in the conference with 64 steals. Robinson will have the tough draw of guarding Caitlin Clark. She also leads the team in assists and pulls down 5.0 rebounds per game.

True freshman forward Nyla Harris has been in the starting lineup for 14 straight games. She is a bigger threat on the boards that on offense. Since she entered the lineup, Harris is averaging 4.5 rebounds and has grabbed multiple offensive rebounds in nine games. Rounding out the starting lineup is forward Olivia Cochran. She is averaging 8.1 points and 6.3 rebounds, while shooting 49.4% from the floor. Cochran has scored in double figures 14 times and has shot 50.0%+ from the floor in 21 of 37 games.

Off the bench, head coach Jeff Walz uses several players. 6’2 G Morgan Jones is averaging 9.0 points per game and has scored in double figures in 15 games. She has stepped up over the last two games with 21 points on 9/13 shooting, as well as 13 rebounds. 6’0 G Merissah Russell averages 4.7 points and 15.1 minutes per game. She has scored 8+ points in eight games, including eight points and four rebounds against Ole Miss.

They do bring a couple of extra height options off the bench. 6’5 C Josie Williams and 6’5 F Liz Dixon are combining to average 8.1 points and 5.6 rebounds per game. Dixon is averaging 16.6 minutes per game and has scored in double figures five times. Williams averages 8.6 minutes per game. The two are shooting a combined 51.9% from the floor.

Here are some important stats to know for tonight’s matchup…

2pt FG: Iowa 1st (59.6%) Louisville 58th (48.8%)

3pt FG: Iowa 9th (37.5%) Louisville 49th (34.4%)

3pt Rate: Iowa 65th (38.6%) Louisville 317th (25.6%)

TO: Iowa 82nd (14.3) Louisville 118th (14.9)

FORCED TO: Louisville 97th (17.2) Iowa 267th (14.3)

Off pts/100 possessions: Iowa 2nd (113.7) Louisville 42nd (102.1)

Def pts/100 possessions: Louisville 94th (88.5) Iowa 179th (92.0)

Possessions Per Gm: Iowa 11th (76.3) Louisville 147th (71.0)

Off Rebounding: Louisville 55th (35.4%) Iowa 278th (27.1%)

Def Rebounding: Iowa 12th (75.0%) Louisville 121st (70.8%)

THE PICK

It all comes down to this. The Hawkeyes are 40 minutes from their first Final Four since 1993, but it won’t be a walk in the park. Louisville is playing their best basketball rigth now and has experience in these big moments. The biggest keys for Iowa, include taking care of the basketball and not giving the Cardinals extra chances on the offensive glass. Colorado pulled down 21 offensive rebounds in the Sweet Sixteen and another performance like that may have the Hawkeyes headed home.

This team feels like they are destined for a spot in the Final Four. They got knocked out of the tournament early last year and have avenged that early exit to this point. WarrenNolan.com projects Iowa to win 79-70. Caitlin Clark and the Hawkeyes will take the program to their second ever Final Four. IOWA 83 LOUISVILLE 77