Iowa Women's Basketball Tip Time Preview - LSU

NCAA TOURNAMENT NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

#3 LSU TIGERS (33-2) vs #2 IOWA HAWKEYES (31-6)

TIME: 2:30pm CT

TV: ABC – Ryan Ruocco, Rebecca Lobo, Andraya Carter and Holly Rowe

THE NUMBERS

OFFENSE: IOWA: 87.3 PPG, 51.1% FG, 37.7% 3PT, 14.3 TO LSU: 81.7 PPG, 46.1% FG, 33.7% 3PT, 13.7 TO

DEFENSE: IOWA: 70.9 PPG, 39.7% FG, 29.6% 3PT, 14.3 TO, +4.6 REB MARGIN LSU: 57.2 PPG, 35.6% FG, 26.6% 3PT, 17.7 TO, +15.5 REB MARGIN

PROJECTED LINEUPS

IOWA HAWKEYES

6’0 PG Caitlin Clark – 27.7 PPG, 7.2 REB, 8.6 AST, 38.7% 3PT, 47.5% FG

5’9 G Gabbie Marshall – 6.1 PPG, 37.3% 3PT, 61 STLS

6’0 G Kate Martin – 7.5 PPG, 4.2 REB, 3.5 AST, 45.9% FG

6’1 F McKenna Warnock – 10.9 PPG, 5.9 REB, 38.8% 3PT

6’3 C Monika Czinano – 17.2 PPG, 6.5 REB, 68.0% FG

LSU TIGERS

5’6 G Alexis Morris – 15.2 PPG, 4.0 AST, 42.9% FG, 32.9% 3PT

5’10 G Flau’jae Johnson – 11.0 PPG, 5.9 REB, 42.6% FG

5’10 G Jasmine Carson – 8.4 PPG, 40.4% FG, 33.1% 3PT

6’3 F Angel Reese – 23.3 PPG, 15.6 REB, 52.7% FG

6’4 F LaDazhia Williams – 9.6 PPG, 6.0 REB, 55.4% FG

IOWA PLAYER TO WATCH: PG Caitlin Clark

Caitlin Clark has quite simply been unstoppable in the NCAA Tournament for the Hawkeyes. She has scored 41 points in back-to-back games, including a triple-double against Louisville in the Elite Eight. Clark is averaging 32.2 points, 5.8 rebounds and 10.4 assists, while shooting 50.5% from the floor.

Not much analysis on this one. Caitlin Clark is the best player in the country and has been a major reason why the Hawkeyes are where they are. Maybe she has one more impressive performance in her back pocket for today’s game.

LSU PLAYER TO WATCH: F Angel Reese

Angel Reese has put together a special season for the Tigers. She has tied the NCAA record with 33 double-doubles this season and was an All-American selection. She averaged 17.8 points for Maryland, but has kicked her game up a notch this season. Reese is averaging 23.3 points and 15.6 rebounds per game, but her biggest threat comes on the offensive glass.

She is averaging 6.45 offensive rebounds per game and has recorded 5+ offensive boards in an incredible 25 games. Reese has scored 20+ points in 26 games and has recorded 15+ rebounds in 21 games.

“It’s so hard to guard that because, like you saw last night, you give up three-point plays then too a lot of times. You give up the offensive rebound. They score. You’re out of position. You try to contest, you get a foul, three-point play,” said head coach Lisa Bluder. “Angel does that. She’s able to do that. She’s so agile down there. Different type of then Aliyah Boston, who I thought was more physical. I think Angel is a better ball handler, will bring the ball down the floor, but she’s more just more agile. Very hard to guard.”

KEY MATCHUP: LSU perimeter shooting vs the Iowa defense

It will be interesting to see what type of defense Lisa Bluder and her staff employ against the Tigers. The Hawkeyes gameplan was to let South Carolina shoot the ball from outside and limit what they could do in the paint. That plan worked, as the Gamecocks missed numerous midrange jumpers and were 4/20 from three-point range.

“I watched the game. I’m watching them guard South Carolina and I don’t think they can guard us that way,” said LSU guard Alexis Morris. “I don’t think you can just leave me open on the perimeter or leave us open on the perimeter. Me personally, I find it very disrespectful, so I’m going to take that personally going into that game.”

“I think LSU can shoot the ball a lot better. We’re not going to guard LSU the same way we guarded South Carolina,” said Caitlin Clark.

However, the Tigers do not shoot a ton better than the Gamecocks do. They are 344th in three-point attempt rate, but shoot 2.7% better from long distance. The Hawkeyes may try to force LSU to hit a few of those shots before they fully come out and contest, but if the Tigers miss those shots early, then Iowa can collapse down on the paint like they did against South Carolina.

THE BREAKDOWN

The LSU Tigers have made a remarkable return in just two seasons with Kim Mulkey at the helm. She has guided her team to a 33-2 record and to the program’s first ever national title game appearance. The Tigers went 10-2 against Quad 1 teams this season and also went 7-2 in the regular season against teams that appeared in the NCAA Tournament.

LSU is led on offense by the previously outlined Angel Reese, but guard Alexis Morris can also fill up the stat sheet and had a game-high 27 points against Virginia Tech. Morris is the teams second best scorer and was a Second Team All-SEC selection. She has really picked up her play since over the last five weeks, as Morris has recorded six of her ten 20+ point games over her last nine games. She has also registered 5+ assists in 14 games. As much of a game changer that Angel Reese is, Alexis Morris can be the same for LSU.

True freshman guard Flau’jae Johnson and grad senior Jasmine Carson round out the starting guard group for the Tigers. Johnson was impressive in the early portion of the season, but has scored in double figures just four times in the last 16 games. She is averaging 6.0 rebounds over the last eight games, but is shooting just 18/72 (25.0%) from the floor over that same span.

Jasmine Carson is the top three-point shooter for the Tigers and has knocked down 3+ three-pointers in 12 games this season, including a season-high seven against Florida. Carson has scored in double figures 15 times this season, but she has been held scoreless in five of her last seven games. Since the SEC Tournament began, Carson is shooting just 4/25 (16.0%) from the floor.

6’4 F LaDazhia Williams joins Angel Reese in the post to make up what is arguably the second best post duo behind South Carolina. Williams has scored in double figures 15 times and is shooting 55.4% from the floor this season. That ranks 29th in the country. She averages 7.9 shots per game and has shot over 50.0% in 22 of her 33 games played.

Mulkey keeps her rotation pretty tight and only uses a couple of players off the bench. Ohio State transfer 5’8 G Kateri Poole has played in 34 games this season and averages 22.3 minutes per game. She averages just 4.5 points and 1.8 three-point attempts per game, but makes them at a 43.3% clip.

6’2 F Sa’Myah Smith and 5’11 G Last-Tear Poa round out the Tigers bench rotation. Smith averages 4.7 points and 4.1 rebounds per game. She plays just 14.8 minutes on average, but is fourth on the team in offensive rebounds and pulls down 4.86 per 40 minutes. Poa plays just 12.7 minutes per game and averages just 3.3 points per game.

Here are some important stats to know for today’s game…

2pt FG: Iowa 1st (59.8%) LSU 39th (49.8%)

3pt FG: Iowa 8th (37.7%) LSU 71st (33.7%)

3pt Rate: Iowa 59th (39.3%) LSU 344th (22.9%)

TO: LSU 62nd (13.8) Iowa 82nd (14.3)

FORCED TO: LSU 71st (17.6) Iowa 267th (14.3)

Off Pts/100 Possessions: Iowa 2nd (113.9) LSU 4th (111.7)

Def Pts/100 Possessions: LSU 6th (78.3) Iowa 192nd (92.5)

Possessions Per Game: Iowa 12th (76.2) LSU 63rd (72.9)

Off Rebounding: LSU 2nd (45.3%) Iowa 286th (26.8%)

Def Rebounding: Iowa 23rd (74.1%) LSU 26th (74.0%)

THE PICK

It feels like a couple of stories are being written and today will be the final chapter of each story. Caitlin Clark already completed the dream that Lisa Bluder and her mapped out when she committed to Iowa, but now she has the chance to help finish the job with a national title. For the team, they won the Big Ten last year, but then were knocked out of the tournament by Creighton on their home floor. Virginia MBB experienced incredible pain in 2018 when they lost to UMBC. They turned around in 2019 and won the whole thing. It just has a feel that the Hawkeyes are on a similar type path.

Still, Iowa and LSU will take the floor and play 40 minutes of basketball to decide the champion. If the Hawkeyes are locked in like the have been over the past month and can get contributions around the lineup, then they will be in good shape. WarrenNolan.com projects Iowa to win 76-72. Lisa Bluder calls her team, “a team of destiny”. They will get the job done and will be celebrating as the confetti falls this afternoon. IOWA 82 LSU 76