Iowa Women's Basketball Tip Time Preview: Northwestern

#3 IOWA HAWKEYES (19-2) (8-1) AT NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS (7-13) (2-7)

TIME: 7:00pm CT

TV: Peacock – Meghan McKeown and Zora Stephenson

SERIES: 79th Meeting – Iowa leads the series 60-18 – Iowa has won three in a row

THE NUMBERS

OFFENSE: IOWA: 91.0 PPG, 50.6% FG, 37.1% 3PT, 14.0 TO NORTHWESTERN: 67.1 PPG, 41.7% FG, 36.0% 3PT, 17.4 TO

DEFENSE: IOWA: 67.5 PPG, 38.9% FG, 29.1% 3PT, 15.6 TO, +9.0 REB MARGIN NORTHWESTERN: 82.0 PPG, 45.0% FG, 36.8% 3PT, 12.2 TO, -2.4 REB MARGIN

IOWA HAWKEYES PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP

Caitlin Clark	Point Guard	6-0/ Sr.	Averaging team-high 32.0 PPG, 7.1 REB and 7.6 AST. Leads the country in points (672), assists (160) and three-pointers (112). 38 pts, 10 reb, 6 ast vs Nebraska.
Gabbie Marshall	Guard	5-9/ 5th Sr.	Averaging 5.2 PPG and second on the team in made threes (29). Has made 4+ three-pointers in five games this season.
Kate Martin	Guard	6-0/ Grad Sr	Averaging 12.2 PPG, 6.0 REB and 2.5 AST. Shooting a career-high 53.4% from the floor. Second on the team in made field goals (95). 16 pts, 5 reb, 4 ast vs Nebraska.
Molly Davis	Guard	5-7/ 5th Sr.	Averaging 6.0 PPG, 2.8 REB and 3.5 AST. Recorded 3+ assists in 15 of 21 games. 3 reb, 6 ast, 0 TO vs Nebraska.
Hannah Stuelke	Forward	6-2/ Soph.	Averaging 12.6 PPG and 6.8 REB. Missed four games due to injury. Shooting 61.5% from the floor. 7 pts, 4 reb vs Nebraska.

NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP

Melannie Daley	Guard	5-11/ Jr.	Averaging 12.9 PPG and 2.6 REB. Shooting a team-high 49.8% from the floor. Scored in double figures in 15 games. 16 pts, 3 reb vs Indiana.
Caroline Lau	Guard	5-9/ Soph.	Averaging 7.5 PPG, 3.8 REB and 5.8 AST. Top 20 in the country in assists (115). Leads the team in minutes per game (28.7). 12 pts, 3 ast vs Indiana.
Casey Harter	Guard	5-11/ Fr.	Averaging 6.3 PPG, 3.6 REB and 2.5 AST. Started the last 12 games. Double figures scoring in five games. Second on the team in assists (50).
Paige Mott	Guard	6-1/ Sr.	Averaging 7.7 PPG and 5.2 REB. First on the team in offensive rebounds (37). Double figures scoring in nine games. Career-high 20 rebounds vs UIC.
Caileigh Walsh	Forward	6-3/ Jr.	Averaging 12.8 PPG and 6.0 REB. Leads the team in rebounds (120). Double figures scoring in 13 games, 8+ rebounds in six games. 7 pts, 4 reb vs Indiana.

NORTHWESTERN PLAYER TO WATCH: G Melannie Daley and F Caileigh Walsh

These two players are the only ones averaging in double figures for a Northwestern team that ranks near the bottom of the power conferences in points per game (67.1). Daley and Walsh are averaging a combined 25.7 points per game, which amounts to 38.3% of the teams scoring.

Melannie Daley has scored in double figures in 14 games and although she is a guard, Daley does all of her work inside the arc. She is just 1/2 from three-point range on the season and is shooting 49.5% from two-point range. As a freshman back in 2022, Daley put up 22 points and six rebounds in an upset win over Iowa.

As for Caileigh Walsh, she is second on the team in scoring and leads the team in rebounding. She has scored in double figures in 12 games and is shooting 50.0% from two points range, while she has also knocked down 19 three-pointers. As a rebounder, she has pulled down 8+ boards in six games, including 12 in a recent game against Penn State.

IOWA PLAYER TO WATCH: PG Caitlin Clark

I am issuing a triple-double watch for this game. In her last four games against Northwestern, Clark is averaging 24.3 points, 8.8 rebounds and 7.5 assists per game. Look for her to get her share of the points early in the game, but then turn into a pass first player in the second half. This could be a 26-12-12 type game for Caitlin. If she gets it done, it will be the 16th triple-double of her career.

MATCHUP TO WATCH: Northwestern 3pt Defense vs Iowa 3pt Shooting

Simply put, the Wildcats three-point defense has been really bad this season. They have allowed their opponents to knock down 10+ threes in seven games, while their 36.8% three-point percentage allowed ranks 348th in the country. Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes have the nation’s leading three-point shooter in Caitlin Clark and a number of other shooters around her. Iowa ranks first in the Big Ten in made threes per game (10.4) and third in three-point percentage (37.1%). That’s a mismatch that the Hawkeyes should be able to take advantage of.

THE BREAKDOWN

Northwestern comes into the contest with a 7-13 overall record and a 2-7 mark in Big Ten play. The ‘Cats have earned wins over Wisconsin and Rutgers in conference play, while their best non-conference win came against Temple. They are 0-8 against Quad 1 opponents with a 31.3-point average margin of defeat.

Looking at the rest of the Wildcats starting lineup, guard Caroline Lau has been quite the facilitator and a big reason behind why they rank 21st in the country in assists. Lau is averaging 7.5 points and 5.8 assists per game, while her 115 assists ranks top 20 in the country. She put up an impressive 16 points and 15 assists against UIC earlier in the year. Freshman guard Casey Harter has made 12 straight starts and has scored in double figures in five games. She is second on the team with 50 assists, including a season-high 7 against Rutgers.

Rounding out the starting lineup is forward Paige Mott. She leads the team in offensive rebounds with 37 and is second on the team in rebounds with 104 total boards. Mott has scored in double figures in ten games, but has just eight total points over the last three games.

Off the bench, Northwestern uses a couple of players and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see one of them in the starting lineup tonight. 5’11 junior guard Hailey Weaver has made ten starts this season and is fourth on the team in scoring, averaging 9.1 points per game. She scored in double figures in the first seven games of the season, but has just once in her last 11 games. Weaver did put up 15 points, including 3/5 from behind the arc against Michigan State.

Boston University grad transfer guard Maggie Pina is the teams leading three-point shooter, with 24 made threes and a team-high 42.9% three-point percentage. Over the last five games, Pina is 9/18 from behind the arc. Senior guard Jasmine McWilliams has also appeared in all 20 games, but is avearging just 2.5 points and 2.6 rebounds per game.

A deeper look at the stats behind the matchup between the Hawkeyes and Wildcats…

THE PICK

There’s not a ton to dissect when it comes to this matchup. Iowa has been really good offensively this season, ranking 2nd in the country in points per 100 possessions (118.1). Meanwhile, Northwestern has been really bad defensively, ranking 358th out of 360 in points allowed per 100 possessions (111.9). That number actually jumps even higher to 115.3 in nine Big Ten games. Offensively, the Wildcats are 13th in the Big Ten in points per game. Warren Nolan projects Iowa to win 87-60. That could be putting it nicely, as Indiana just put up 100 on them on Sunday. IOWA 98 NORTHWESTERN 62