Iowa Women's Basketball Tip Time Preview: Northwestern

NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS (7-11, 0-7) AT IOWA HAWKEYES (13-7, 3-6)

TIME: 7:00pm CT

TV: Big Ten Network – Kylen Mills and Shimmy Miller

SERIES: 80th Meeting – Iowa leads the series 61-18 – Hawkeyes are 27-7 in Iowa City

LINK: Four numbers to know ahead of Iowa-Northwestern WBB

BY THE NUMBERS

OFFENSE: IOWA: 74.8 PPG, 46.8% FG, 33.1% 3PT, 16.9 TO NORTHWESTERN: 66.9 PPG, 43.3% FG, 27.9% 3PT, 15.1 TO

DEFENSE: IOWA: 65.3 PPG, 39.2% FG, 34.0% 3PT, 16.0 TO, +8.5 REB MARGIN NORTHWESTERN: 73.2 PPG, 40.6% FG, 33.4% 3PT, 12.4 TO, -1.3 REB MARGIN

IOWA HAWKEYES PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP

Lucy Olsen	Point Guard	5-10/ Sr.	Averaging team-high 15.8 PPG, 3.4 REB and 4.9 AST. Leads the team in assists (89), second in made field goals (109). 20 pts, 6 ast vs Washington
Taylor McCabe	Guard	5-9/ Jr.	Averaging 7.3 PPG and 2.4 REB. Leads the team in made threes (43). Registered seven games with 3+ made threes. 11 pts, 2 reb, 2 ast vs Washington
Kylie Feuerbach	Guard	6-0/ rSr.	Averaging 6.2 PPG and 2.4 REB. Second on the team in made threes (21). Recorded six steals against NIU. Leads the team in steals (23). 12 pts, 2 ast vs Washington
Syd Affolter	Forward	5-11/ Sr.	Averaging 6.7 PPG and 7.5 REB. Big Ten All-Tournament Team last season. Grabbed 5+ rebounds in 18 of 19 games. 3 pts, 4 reb vs Washington
Hannah Stuelke	Forward	6-2/ Jr.	Averaging 12.9 PPG and 8.2 REB. Leads the team in rebounds (147) and offensive rebounds (43), third in made field goals (75). Missed last two games with a concussion.

NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP

Kyla Jones	Guard	5-9/ Grad Sr.	Brown transfer. Averaging 10.6 PPG, 2.7 REB and 2.0 AST. Leads the team in field goal percentage (53.0%), third in made field goals (79). 14 pts, 3 stls vs Illinois
Caroline Lau	Guard	5-9/ Jr.	Averaging 4.2 PPG, 4.6 REB and 6.1 AST. Top 20 in the country in total assists (109). Leads the team in steals (25). 3 reb, 5 ast vs Illinois
Casey Harter	Guard	5-11/ Soph.	Averaging 6.7 PPG, 2.5 REB and 2.0 AST. Leads the team in made three-pointers (21). 2 pts, 2 reb, 2 ast vs Illinois
Taylor Williams	Forward	6-2/ Grad Sr.	Michigan transfer. Averaging 10.8 PPG and 9.4 REB. Leads the team in total rebounds (159) and offensive rebounds (46). Recorded seven double-doubles. 11 pts, 9 reb vs Illinois
Grace Sullivan	Forward	6-4/ Jr.	Bucknell transfer. Averaging 10.8 PPG and 4.3 REB. Leads the team in made field goals (84), second in field goal percentage (52.8%). Scored in double figures in 12 games. 11 pts, 2 reb vs Illinois

NORTHWESTERN PLAYER TO WATCH: Forward Taylor Williams

Former Western Michigan and Michigan transfer forward Taylor Williams has been a consistent contributor, as a scorer and as a rebounder. The sixth-year senior has recorded seven double-doubles this season, while she has scored in double figures in ten games and totaled double digit rebounds in ten games. Her best game in Big Ten play came against Indiana, finishing with 15 points and 13 rebounds. Williams is a paint scorer, but is a below average finisher, shooting 50.4% (54/106) from within 4.5 feet, which is well below the DI average (57.4%). On non-rim paint attempts, she is shooting 46.7% (14/30).

IOWA PLAYER TO WATCH: Forward Hannah Stuelke

After missing out on the west coast swing due to a concussion she suffered against Nebraska, Hannah Stuelke will make her return to the lineup tonight. It’s a small sample size, but in two starts at center (Illinois & Nebraska), she has totaled 34 points and 29 rebounds. The coaching staff has decided that playing Stuelke in the post is where she can finally get rolling and the early returns have been good. Tonight, will be a good chance to get her back in a groove after some time off, before important games against USC, Minnesota and Nebraska.

BREAKING DOWN THE WILDCATS

The Wildcats have had some good times under 16th-year head coach Joe McKeown, including a WNIT runner-up finish in 2019 and a 26-4 season in 2020. However, McKeown and Co. have fallen on tough times recently, posting a 6-39 record against Big Ten teams over the past three seasons, including an 0-7 start this season. It’s set to be the worst three-year stretch for the ‘Cats since 2007-09 when they won just six Big Ten games over three seasons.

Looking at the rest of the Northwestern projected starting lineup, Brown transfer guard Kyla Jones is going to try to get downhill and finish around the basket for the majority of her points. Averaging a team-best 12.3 points per game in Big Ten play, 28 of her 35 made field goals have come at the rim. She has scored in double figures in nine games, including putting up 17 points in the ‘Cats near upset of Minnesota. It is likely that Kylie Feuerbach will draw the assignment on Jones to try to limit her ability to get into the paint for shot attempts.

Junior guard Caroline Lau is the floor general, accumulating 109 assists, which ranks 18th in the country. She has totaled 5+ assists in 13 games, including three games with 10+ assists. As good as she has been in the role of distributor, Lau has struggled to contribute as a scorer, averaging just 4.2 points per game and shooting 23.2% from the floor. On a team that does not shoot many threes, Lau is second on the team with 17 made triples, but is shooting just 22.7% from long distance.

Sophomore shooting guard Casey Harter fills out the Northwestern backcourt and is the top three-point shooter on a team that ranks 330th in made threes per game. Harter has knocked down 21 of her 54 (38.9%) attempts from long distance and has made a three in 14 of 18 games, including a season-high three made triples against Howard. She has struggled on midrange looks, shooting just 24.0% (6/25) on long range two’s.

Rounding out the ‘Cats projected starting lineup is 6’4 Bucknell transfer forward Grace Sullivan. Nearly 50% of Northwestern’s scoring comes from their frontcourt, and Sullivan is a part of that trio of scorers, averaging 10.8 points and 4.3 rebounds per game. She has scored in double figures in 12 games and is second on the team in field goal percentage, shooting 52.8% from the floor. Although not a threat to shoot it from outside, Sullivan can score almost anywhere inside the arc, shooting 72.0% (36/50) from within 4.5 feet, 47.3% (26/55) on non-rim paint attempts and 41.5% (22/53) on midrange jumpers. With her ability to play away from the basket more than most centers, Hannah Stuelke will be the right player to have guarding her.

Head coach Joe McKeown relies on two of his veterans to produce off the bench and has turned to seven players for 90.2% of the minutes this season. Senior guard Melannie Daley is averaging 24.8 minutes per game and has stepped up lately, scoring in double figures in seven of her last nine games. She’s an underrated midrange scorer, shooting 45.5% (51/112) on midrange shots. Over her last nine games, Daley is averaging 13.0 points and 3.8 assists per game, while shooting 48.1% (52/108) from the floor.

The other name to know is an important one. 6’3 senior forward Caileigh Walsh was a full-time starter for each of the past two seasons but has come off the bench in 11 of her 16 games played this season, averaging a team-high 11.2 points and 4.3 rebounds per game. Walsh can step out and shoot the three-ball but is shooting just 23.9% from behind the arc this season, so most of her scoring will come in the paint, where she shoots 50.0% (45/90).

Shooting Heat Maps (CBB Analytics): Iowa and Northwestern

A deeper look at the advanced stats behind the matchup between the Hawkeyes and Wildcats…

THE PICK

Warren Nolan Projection: IOWA 85 NORTHWESTERN 60

Bart Torvik Projection: IOWA 81 NORTHWESTERN 60

The Hawkeyes got a huge win over Washington last time out and were finally able to end their losing skid, but the next step is to stack a good performance on top of a good performance. They’ll have the opportunity to do that tonight, facing a Northwestern team that has struggled mightily this season.

There are a few statistics that the ‘Cats would have to completely flip on their head to have a shot to pull off the major upset in Iowa City. Defensively, Northwestern is allowing 81.0 points per game in Big Ten play, while they are scoring just 65.4 per game themselves. On the glass, they are 206th in total rebounding and are going up against an Iowa team that has won the rebounding battle in 18 of 20 games. Finally, three-point shooting can be the great equalizer, but the ‘Cats are a bottom 100 three-point shooting team in the country, averaging just 3.9 made threes per game.

Northwestern does have a win over Utah this season and were able to scare both Michigan and Indiana, but I don’t expect this one to be very close. IOWA 83 NORTHWESTERN 62