Iowa Women's Basketball Tip Time Preview: Penn State

#23 IOWA HAWKEYES (11-2) (1-1) AT PENN STATE LADY LIONS (9-4) (0-2)

DATE: Wednesday, January 1st

TIME: 12:00PM CT

TV: BTN+ – Announcers TBA

SERIES: 59th Meeting – Series is tied 29-29 – Iowa has won each of the last ten meetings

BY THE NUMBERS

OFFENSE: IOWA: 77.5 PPG, 48.1% FG, 32.6% 3PT, 16.8 TO PENN STATE: 77.9 PPG, 48.2% FG, 33.9% 3PT, 21.0 TO

DEFENSE: IOWA: 63.8 PPG, 38.4% FG, 32.2% 3PT, 17.2 TO, +8.9 REB MARGIN PENN STATE: 65.2 PPG, 40.1% FG, 31.9% 3PT, 20.0 TO, +8.9 REB MARGIN

IOWA HAWKEYES PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP

Lucy Olsen	Point Guard	5-10/ Sr.	Averaging team-high 17.5 PPG, 3.7 REB and 5.2 AST. Second on the team in made field goals (73). Recorded 15 pts, 5 ast in seven of 11 games. Season-low six points against Purdue.
Kylie Feuerbach	Guard	6-0/ rSr.	Averaging 6.5 PPG and 2.9 REB. Second on the team in made threes (18). Recorded six steals against NIU. Second on the team in steals (18).
Syd Affolter	Guard	5-11/ Sr.	Averaging 6.4 PPG and 7.1 REB. Big Ten All-Tournament Team last season. Grabbed 8+ rebounds in the five of last eight games. 9 pts, 7 reb, 6 ast vs Purdue
Hannah Stuelke	Forward	6-2/ Jr.	Averaging 13.6 PPG and 7.4 REB. Second Team All-Big Ten last season. Third on the team in made field goals (55). 9 pts, 6 reb vs Purdue
Addi O’Grady	Center	6-4/ Sr.	Averaging 13.3 PPG and 5.2 REB. Shooting 67.3% from the floor, leads the team in made field goals (76). 12 pts, 3 reb vs Purdue

PENN STATE LADY LIONS PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP

Jayla Oden	Guard	5-8/ Sr.	Averaging 9.4 PPG and 3.1 AST. Scored in double figures in five games. Third on the team in assists (34). 8 pts, 2 ast vs Minnesota
Moriah Murray	Guard	5-8/ rSoph.	Averaging 14.0 PPG, 2.6 REB and 2.6 AST. Eighth in the country in made threes (44), second on the team in made field goals (60). Made 5+ threes in five games. 8 ast vs Minnesota
Gabby Elliott	Guard	5-10/ Grad Sr.	Michigan State transfer. Averaging 9.0 PPG and 4.8 REB. Scored in double figures in six games. Third on the team in made field goals (49). 19 pts vs Minnesota
Alli Campbell	Guard	6-0/ Grad Sr.	Averaging 8.5 PPG, 4.5 REB and 4.6 AST. Scored in double figures in four games. Leads the team in assists (60) and steals (23). 6 pts, 3 reb vs Minnesota
Gracie Merkle	Center	6-6/ rSoph	Bellarmine transfer. Averaging 18.8 PPG and 9.2 REB. Sixth in the country in field goal percentage (66.4%), leads the team in made field goals (101) and blocked shots (26). Did not score against Minnesota.

PENN STATE PLAYER TO WATCH: Guard Gabby Elliott

Usually, I go with the top player for the team that the Hawkeyes are going up against, but guard Gabby Elliott is an underrated player to watch in this matchup. The former Clemson and Michigan State transfer has had a rough go the last two seasons, playing just 15 total games, with injuries ending both of her seasons in East Lansing. Going back to her time at Clemson, Elliott was an ACC All-Freshman selection during the 2020-21 season, averaging 13.6 points and 5.0 rebounds per game, including 19 games in double figures scoring. She’s had a lot of health issues during her collegiate career, but has scored in double figures in four of her last six games, including putting up 19 points against Minnesota last time out.

LINK: Four numbers to know ahead of Iowa-Penn State WBB

IOWA PLAYER TO WATCH: Forward Hannah Stuelke

When these two teams met in Iowa City last season, Hannah Stuelke had a historic night putting up a then Carver-Hawkeye Arena record 47 points and nine rebounds. She attempted 20 shots in that game, and while that’s likely not in the game plan for this meeting, the Hawkeyes do need to find a way to get her more looks. Stuelke ranks 36th in the Big Ten in usage rate (22.7%) and has attempted five shots or less in three of the last five games. This is an opponent that Hannah has had previous success scoring against.

KEY MATCHUP TO WATCH: Center Gracie Merkle vs Center Addi O’Grady

This matchup is not only going to be a good measuring stick for both players going into the heart of Big Ten play, but it could end up having a big impact on the outcome of the game. A transfer from Bellarmine, 6-foot-6 center Gracie Merkle is averaging just 23.2 minutes per game, but has made a huge impact. Merkle is averaging 20.1 shot attempts and 32.32 points per 40 minutes, while she ranks sixth in the country in field goal percentage (66.4%), As for Addi O’Grady, she has played above expectations, averaging 13.3 points and 5.2 rebounds per game, but was limited to was limited to just six combined points facing Audi Crooks (ISU) and Grace VanSlooten (MSU). It’s also worth noting that Gracie Merkle was limited to zero points in 18 minutes against Minnesota.

BREAKING DOWN THE LADY LIONS

The Lady Lions program is under the direction of sixth-year head coach Carolyn Kieger, who helped lead PSU to a 22-13 record last season, including a trip to the WBIT Semifinals, where they fell to Lucy Olsen and Villanova. This season, Penn State is off to a 9-4 start, but are 0-2 in Big Ten play with losses to Indiana and Minnesota.

Along with Bellarmine transfer Grace Merkle (18.8 ppg), redshirt sophomore guard Moriah Murray has been the other play to pace the Lady Lions from a scoring perspective, averaging 14.0 points per contest. A bench contributor last season, Murray has burst onto the scene this season, as one of the top three-point shooters in the country. Murray is sixth in the country in made threes per game (3.38) and eighth in made triples (44), while her 41.1% three-point percentage ranks third amongst Big Ten players with at least 25 made triples. She has scored in double figures in seven games, including a career-high 28 points and eight made threes against Bucknell.

The Penn State starting lineup is comprised of four guards and a center, with 6-foot-0 grad senior guard Alli Campbell the closest they have to a forward height wise. Campbell is averaging a career-high 8.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game. On a team that has struggled to take care of the ball, Campbell has a team-best 1.71 assist-to-turnover ratio. She has scored in double figures in four games, including putting up 15 points against Kansas.

Rounding out the starting five for the Lady Lions is former Illinois guard Jayla Oden. Like Alli Campbell, Oden is averaging a career-best 9.4 points per game, including scoring in double digits in three of the last five games, headlined by a 24-point night against St John’s. She has really struggled with turnovers, averaging 5.73 turnovers per 40 minutes.

Head coach Carolyn Kieger is likely going to play just eight players in the rotation, meaning there’s only a couple of players coming off the bench. Former four-star, LSU and DIII Wabash transfer Grace Hall has started two games, averaging 5.6 points, 2.5 rebounds and 15.7 minutes per game over 13 games. The 6-foot-2 forward has scored in double figures in two games and is shooting 52.5% (32/61) from the floor.

Louisiana grad transfer forward Tamera Johnson was a double-digit scorer for the Ragin Cajuns in each of the past two seasons. She is averaging 4.4 points, 3.6 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 19.2 minutes per game. The other name to know is true freshman guard Talayah Walker, who is averaging 3.8 points and 11.5 minutes per game.

Shooting Heat Maps (CBB Analytics): Iowa and Penn State

A deeper look at the advanced stats behind the matchup between the Hawkeyes and Lady Lions…

THE PICK

Warren Nolan Projection: IOWA 79 PENN STATE 70

Bart Torvik Projection: IOWA 78 PENN STATE 70

The Hawkeyes have absolutely dominated this series over the past seven seasons, winning each of the last ten meetings. This is a much different Iowa team than the one that scored 90+ points in seven straight games against the Lady Lions, but that doesn’t change the fact that this is a must-win road game for the Hawkeyes. After this game, the schedule gets much more difficult, as Iowa will not face another team outside the NET top 50 until January 22nd at Washington.

Both Warren Nolan and Torvik like this to be a tight game, but I do think the stats are a little inflated for PSU due to playing nine games against Q4 opponents. That being said, Gracie Merkle and Moriah Murray can carry the load, while Alli Campbell and Gabby Elliott are decent secondary contributors. The biggest challenge for Iowa will be limiting turnovers, as PSU is 58th in turnovers forced per game (20.00), but the Lady Lions are one of the worst in the country in limiting turnovers themselves (335th).

This game will have a weird feel for the Hawkeyes, as it’s an early tip (1:00pm ET) and they will have completed their game against Purdue just 68 hours prior, so it’s a quick turnaround. PSU also averages just 1,900 fans per game at the Bryce Jordan Center, so Iowa will have to create their own energy. I think it will take some time for both sides to get it rolling, but the Hawkeyes are the better team and will get the win. IOWA 78 PENN STATE 66