Iowa Women's Basketball Tip Time Preview: Purdue

#3 IOWA HAWKEYES (15-1) AT PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (9-5)

TIME: 7:00pm CT

TV: Peacock ($) – Kim Adams and Zora Stephenson

SERIES: 79th Meeting – Iowa leads the series 45-33 – Iowa has won 7 in a row in the series

THE NUMBERS

OFFENSE: IOWA: 90.6 PPG, 50.9% FG, 35.6% 3PT, 14.1 TO PURDUE: 68.9 PPG, 42.6% FG, 34.5% 3PT, 15.6 TO

DEFENSE: IOWA: 66.6 PPG, 38.4% FG, 28.5% 3PT, 15.0 TO, +10.9 REB MARGIN PURDUE: 62.2 PPG, 38.6% FG, 30.7% 3PT, 16.2 TO, +1.8 REB MARGIN

IOWA HAWKEYES PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP

Caitlin Clark	Point Guard	6-0/ Sr.	Averaging 31.3 PPG, 7.1 REB and 7.6 AST. Leads the country in points (501), assists (121) and three-pointers (79). Triple-double 29 pts, 10 reb, 10 ast vs Rutgers.
Gabbie Marshall	Guard	5-9/ 5th Sr.	Averaging 4.6 PPG and shooting 28.6% from three-point range. Second on the team in made threes (20). 12 pts, 4/7 3pt vs Rutgers.
Kate Martin	Guard	6-0/ Grad Sr	Averaging 12.0 PPG, 5.6 REB and 2.6 AST. Shooting a career-high 55.3% from the floor. 17 pts, 7 reb, 5 ast vs Rutgers.
Molly Davis	Guard	5-7/ 5th Sr.	Averaging 5.3 PPG, 3.0 REB and 3.3 AST. Registered 3+ assists in 12 of 16 games. 8 pts, 5 ast vs Rutgers.
Hannah Stuelke	Forward	6-2/ Soph.	Averaging 14.1 PPG and 7.2 REB. Shooting 65.5% from the floor and second on the team in made field goals (78). 10 pts, 7 reb, 4 ast vs Rutgers.

PURDUE BOILERMAKERS PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP

Jeanae Terry	Guard	5-11/ 5th Sr.	Averaging 5.0 PPG, 7.5 REB and 5.9 AST. Five games with 10+ rebounds and six games with 7+ assists. 8 pts, 10 reb, 5 ast vs Rutgers.
Abbey Ellis	Guard	5-6/ 5th Sr.	Averaging 14.6 PPG and 3.4 REB. Leads the team in made FG (70), steals (23) and minutes (29.3). 13 pts, 3 reb vs Rutgers.
Madison Layden	Guard	6-1/ Sr.	Averaging 11.5 PPG and 3.0 REB. Leads the team in made 3pt (35) and 3pt% (49.3%). 19 pts, 3 ast vs Rutgers.
Mary Ashley Stevenson	Forward	6-2/ Fr.	Averaging 9.2 PPG and 5.9 REB. Leads the team in offensive rebounds (30) and second in shot attempts (121). 7 pts, 6 reb vs Rutgers.
Caitlyn Harper	Forward	6-3/ 6th Sr.	Averaging 10.2 PPG and 4.1 REB. Shooting a team-high 55.7% from the floor. Second on the team in made FG (59). 9 pts, 5 reb vs Rutgers.

PURDUE PLAYERS TO WATCH: G Madison Layden and G Jeanae Terry

The Boilermakers rank ninth in the Big Ten and 138th in the country in made three-pointers. Guard Madison Layden is their top threat from behind the arc, as she leads the team with 35 made threes. She is shooting 49.3% from long distance, but has been especially good at Mackey Arena. In eight games in West Lafayette, Layden is 24/45 (53.3%) from behind the arc. The Hawkeyes will have to find her in transition and in the half court.

Fifth-year senior point guard Jeanae Terry isn’t going to light up the scoreboard, in fact she is averaging just 6.5 points per game over the course of her three years with Purdue. Still, Lisa Bluder called her a smart, aggressive and strong player. She rebounds, runs the offense and can post up on the offensive end. Terry is sixth in the Big Ten in rebounding (105) and third in assists (83). She takes just 4.1 shot attempts per game, but affects the game in many other ways.

KEY MATCHUP TO WATCH: Purdue pace vs Iowa pace

Similar to the Hawkeyes recent matchup against Rutgers, there is a pretty stark difference in pace of play preferences between the two teams. Iowa ranks 24th in the country in possessions per 40 (77.2) and 12 of their 16 games have gone over the 75.0 mark. As for Purdue, they rank 190th in pace (70.7) and have played just three games over the 75.0 mark. They’ve also played six games that have gone under 70.0, while the Hawkeyes lowest paced game was 70.5 against Kansas State. Against Rutgers, Iowa was able to speed up the game and forced the Scarlet Knights to go away from their preferred pace. Lisa Bluder teams love to go fast and they will try to get the Boilermakers out of their comfort zone.

THE BREAKDOWN

Coming off of a trip to the NCAA Tournament, Katie Geralds’ squad is off to a 9-5 start this season. They played a tough non-conference slate and their losses have come against good teams, including #2 UCLA, #18 Notre Dame, Minnesota, Florida and Georgia. They do have a notable win over 13-2 Texas A&M, but no others wins over teams inside the NET Top 100.

Looking at the rest of the projected starting lineup, guard Abbey Ellis is the leading scorer for the Boilermakers, averaging nearly 15 points per game. She is averaging 11.6 shot attempts per game and has scored in double figures in 13 of 14 games, including a season-high 28 points against Indiana State. Ellis is second on the team in made threes (19) and is shooting 49.5% from two-point range. In two games against Iowa last year, Ellis combined for just 11 points on 4/14 shooting.

In the interior, Purdue has 6’2 true freshman Mary Ashley Stevenson and 6’3 sixth-year center Caitlyn Harper. Stevenson came in as a four-star, #97 player in the country and has started 13 of 14 games this season. She has scored in double figures in seven games and over the last eight games she is averaging 7.9 rebounds. They have gone to her a lot recently, with 10+ shot attempts in four of the last six games, but she’s still only shooting 39.7% from the floor.

Rounding out the starting lineup is the veteran Caitlyn Harper. She is third on the team in scoring, averaging 10.2 points per game and shooting a team-high 63.5% from two-point range. Harper has scored in double figures in eight games, including a season-high 22 points against SEMO. In the post, Stevenson and Harper are combining for 16.2 shot attempts per game, which is 28% of the teams shot attempts.

Off the bench, there are a couple of names to know, starting with 5’8 freshman guard Rashunda Jones. The four-star, #79 player in the country has missed four games with an injury, but is back and contributing. Jones is averaging 10.1 points per game and is shooting 46.0% from two-point range. She has scored in double figures in five games, including a 20-point outburst in their big win over Texas A&M. Jones did have an Iowa offer during the recruiting process.

The other name to know is 6’0 junior guard Jayla Smith. She is averaging 4.2 points and 15.7 minutes per game, with one start. Smith is shooting just 31.0% from the floor and is averaging just 1.7 made field goals per game. She did put up 13 points and five rebounds against Florida back in November.

A deeper look at the stats behind the matchup between the Hawkeyes and Boilermakers…

THE PICK

Lisa Bluder said it best during Tuesday’s media availability, “when you’re a slower pace team, it’s a defenisve strategy as well. If we don’t have the ball in our hands, we can’t score.” The Boilermakers have paired their slower pace with a solid defense. If you take out their disaster in the season opener against UCLA (92 pts), they are allowing just 83.0 points/100 poss, which would rank 55th in the country. It is worth noting, they held Minnesota’s 37th ranked offense to just 60 points.

If Purdue can control the tempo of the game, they could have a shot. Still, Iowa is the best offensive team that they have seen, so it will be a tall task. WarrenNolan.com seems to think the pace will be a big slower, but has the Hawkeyes winning 79-63. I believe Iowa picks up a 13th straight win and becomes just the second team to put up 80+ against the Boilermakers. IOWA 82 PURDUE 65