Iowa Women's Basketball Tip Time Preview - South Carolina

NCAA TOURNAMENT NATIONAL SEMIFINAL GAME – FINAL FOUR

#1 SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS (36-0) vs #2 IOWA HAWKEYES (30-6)

TIME: 8:30pm CT

TV: ESPN – Ryan Ruocco, Rebecca Lobo, Andraya Carter and Holly Rowe

SERIES: Second Meeting – South Carolina leads the series 1-0

THE NUMBERS

OFFENSE: IOWA: 87.6 PPG, 51.1% FG, 37.9% 3PT, 14.4 TO SC: 80.5 PPG, 46.4% FG, 31.5% 3PT, 12.6 TO

DEFENSE: IOWA: 70.9 PPG, 39.8% FG, 29.9% 3PT, 14.3 TO, +5.4 REB MARGIN SC: 51.1 PPG, 31.7% FG, 26.4% 3PT, 14.0 TO, +20.3 REB MARGIN

PROJECTED LINEUPS

IOWA HAWKEYES

6’0 PG Caitlin Clark – 27.3 PPG, 7.3 REB, 8.6 AST, 39.2% 3PT

5’9 G Gabbie Marshall – 6.2 PPG, 37.6% 3PT, 58 STLS

6’0 G Kate Martin – 7.5 PPG, 4.1 REB, 3.5 AST, 46.0% FG

6’1 F McKenna Warnock – 11.1 PPG, 6.0 REB, 39.2% 3PT

6’3 C Monika Czinano – 17.2 PPG, 6.6 REB, 67.9% FG

SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS

5’9 G Zia Cooke – 15.1 PPG, 40.0% FG, 35.2% 3PT

6’1 G Brea Beal – 6.5 PPG, 4.4 REB, 2.8 AST, 39.6% 3PT

5’9 G Kierra Fletcher – 4.6 PPG, 3.3 REB, 42.3% FG

6’2 F Victaria Saxton – 5.1 PPG, 3.2 REB, 46.3% FG

6’5 C Aliyah Boston – 13.2 PPG, 9.8 REB, 56.8% FG

6’1 G Brea Beal – 6.5 PPG, 4.4 REB, 2.8 AST, 39.6% 3PT

IOWA PLAYER TO WATCH: G Caitlin Clark

The Naismith Player of the Year winner is the player to watch for the Hawkeyes. She has stepped up her game in the NCAA Tournament, which is hard to do. Over four games, she is averaging 30.0 points, 11.0 assists and 5.8 rebounds per game, while shooting nearly 50% from three-point range.

It will be interesting to see how the Gamecocks attack Clark on the defensive end of the floor and if they are able to slow her. So far, no one in the tournament has been able to do it.

SCAROLINA PLAYER TO WATCH: G Zia Cooke

All the talk is on the post players for the Gamecocks and they are very good, but guard Zia Cooke is the leading scoring threat. Cooke is not only the primary scorer, but also the top three-point shooter. She has scored in double figures in 29 of 36 games, including a season-high 31 points against Georgia.

Cooke is not going to torch the nets with 5-6-7 three-pointers in a game, but she is consistent, as she has made 2+ three-pointers in 20 games this season. She takes 4.9 three-point shots and 12.9 total shots per game.

KEYS TO THE GAME FOR IOWA

1. Limit second chances for the Gamecocks. South Carolina is the top offensive rebounding team in the country and they do it with two 6’5+ players in the post. Aliyah Boston and Kamilla Cardoso have combined for 245 (6.8 per gm) offensive rebounds this season. Somewhat surprising, is the fact that the Gamecocks are pretty inefficient when they do get second chance opportunities. They have turned 653 offensive rebounds into 533 points (.81 ppr). The Hawkeyes absolutely cannot let Boston/Cardoso extend possessions with lots of boards. All five players have to rebound because this is their most important rebounding assignment of the season.

2. Take and make three-pointers. The only way to open up the the inside is to stretch the defense with some perimeter shooting. Also, the Gamecocks get 83.5% of their points from inside the arc and only average 4.4 three-point makes per game. For the Hawkeyes, three points is more than the Gamecocks two’s. They made 16 from long range against Louisville. Duplicate that performance and they will have something serious cooking. That means Marshall, Warnock, Martin and Clark all need to step up and hit shots.

“Not forcing anything, just waiting for your moment and whenever you’re open, shoot it with confidence,” said Kate Martin. “We have so much confidence in each other, so when you’re open, shoot it and that’s what the coaches want. That’s what your teammates want as well.”

3. Take advantage of the SC’s “light” quarters. While the Gamecocks are the best team in the country, they have the propensity to have some light scoring quarters. They have scored 15 points or less in 27 quarters this season and under 20 points in a quarter 50 times. Against UCLA in the Sweet Sixteen, they scored 14 in Q1 and 11 in Q2. The Bruins were not able to take advantage and scored just 15 points on their own. SC outscored them 25-15 in the third and put the game away. In the Elite Eight against Maryland, the Terps outscored the Gamecocks 21-15 in the opening quarter, but were outscored 23-9 in the second.

In those 27 quarters that SC scored 15 points or less, they still won or tied in 14 of those quarters. If the Hawkeyes can hold SC to a low scoring quarter or two, they must capitalize on it, by grabbing rebounds and getting out in transition.

4. Keep the game within striking distance. The Gamecocks have won 42 straight games, which means they are good at building and holding leads. This is not going to be the type of game where Iowa can afford to fall behind by ten points and come back to win. If the Hawkeyes can keep the game within two possessions or so (6-8 pts), they will have a chance.

THE BREAKDOWN

The Gamecocks opened the season as the preseason #1 and have had a stranglehold on the spot all season. They have won 42 games in a row dating back to last season and are 6-0 at neutral sites this year. Dawn Staley’s squad is 17-0 against Quad 1 opponents, 11-0 against the NET Top 25 and were 13-0 against NCAA tournament participants in the regular season. They are the #1 team for a reason.

Zia Cooke was already outlined in the player to watch category, but she is not the only guard that takes the floor in the starting lineup for South Carolina. Rock Island native Brea Beal averages 6.5 points and 4.4 boards per game. She is second on the team in three-point shooting and has made a three-pointer in 23 games and has multiple makes in 14 games.

Kierra Fletcher rounds out the starting guards, but averages the least minutes of the starters (16.2). She averages 4.6 points and 3.3 boards per game. The grad transfer from Georgia Tech averages just 4.26 shots per game, but shoots 45.3% from inside the arc. Fletcher has pulled down 5+ rebounds in 11 games.

Senior forward Victaria Saxton also only averages 16.3 minutes per game as a starter. Saxton, like Fletcher does not shoot many shots, but shoots pretty well when she does. She averages just 4.08 attempts, but shoots 45.8% from the floor. Saxton has scored in double figures six times and has grabbed 5+ rebounds in eight games.

Rounding out the starting lineup is C Aliyah Boston. She is nearly averages a double-double per game and was a finalist for the Naismith Player of the Year award. She has scored in double figures 30 times, including five games with 20+ points. Boston is shooting 56.8% from the floor, which ranks 24th in the country. She is also strong on the defensive end, as her SEC leading 72 blocks (2.0 bpg) helped her to win Naismith Defensive Player of the Year.

Off the bench, Coach Dawn Staley mainly uses five subs, but none are more important than 6’7 C Kamilla Cardoso. She is third on the team in scoring (9.7 ppg) and averages 18.5 minutes per game. Cardoso is a menace on the offensive glass, as she averages 7.5 offensive rebounds per 40 minutes on the floor.

6’4 F Laeticia Amihere is the fourth leading scorer for the Gamecocks, averaging 7.1 points per game. Amihere averages 15.9 minutes per game and has scored in double figures nine times this season. Over the last eight games, she is averaging 9.0 points on 27/51 (52.9%) shooting. 6’3 F Ashlyn Watkins is the last in the rotation of interior players for South Carolina. She averages 4.9 points and 3.1 rebounds over 10.7 minutes per game.

As for guards off the bench, 6’0 Bree Hall (5.0 ppg) is third on the team in three-point makes (22), while 5’8 true freshman Raven Johnson (3.9 ppg) leads the team in assists with 121. Hall averages 14.1 minutes per game, while Johnson averages 18.4 minutes.

Here are some important stats to know going into the game…

2pt FG: Iowa 1st (59.7%) South Carolina 31st (50.5%)

3pt FG: Iowa 7th (37.9%) South Carolina 148th (31.5%)

3pt Rate: Iowa 58th (39.3%) South Carolina 353rd (21.5%)

TO: South Carolina 19th (12.6) Iowa 88th (14.4)

FORCED TO: Iowa 268th (14.3) South Carolina 287th (14.0)

Off pts/100 possessions: South Carolina 1st (114.4) Iowa 2nd (113.9)

Def pts/100 possessions: South Carolina 2nd (73.3) Iowa 184th (92.2)

Possessions Per Game: Iowa 10th (76.4) South Carolina 194th (69.9)

Off Rebounding: South Carolina 1st (48.7%) Iowa 280th (27.0%)

Def Rebounding: South Carolina 8th (75.7%) Iowa 12th (75.0%)

THE PICK

This is the matchup that everyone in the country wanted to see. The Hawkeyes and their high-flying offense against South Carolina and their elite defense. For Iowa, it has been quite the journey to their first Final Four since 1993, but they feel that they are confident they can prove even more this weekend.

The Hawkeyes will need to be at their best if they want to snap the Gamecocks 42 game winning streak and derail their undefeated season. Lisa Bluder’s squad has to put together a valiant effort on the defensive glass to limit South Carolina’s chances. On the offensive end they need to be clean with the ball and hit outside shots.

WarrenNolan.com projects South Carolina to win 81-70 and the sportsbooks have the Gamecocks favored by 11.5-12 points. It will be close in the fourth, as Caitlin Clark and the Hawkeyes will have something to say about the Gamecocks 36-0 record. I’ll take the boring pick and say South Carolina has just a little too much rebounding and a little too much defense. SOUTH CAROLINA 79 IOWA 72