Iowa Women's Basketball Tip Time Preview: Wisconsin

WISCONSIN BADGERS (13-15, 4-13) AT IOWA HAWKEYES (19-9, 9-8)

TIME: 3:00pm CT

TV: Peacock – Ann Schatz and Autumn Johnson

SERIES: 80th Meeting – Iowa leads the series 59-20 – Iowa has won 29 consecutive meetings

BY THE NUMBERS

OFFENSE: IOWA: 74.4 PPG, 46.0% FG, 34.6% 3PT, 16.1 TO WISCONSIN: 65.9 PPG, 43.0% FG, 33.5% 3PT, 15.3 TO

DEFENSE: IOWA: 65.8 PPG, 39.6% FG, 34.0% 3PT, 15.6 TO, +6.6 REB MARGIN WISCONSIN: 71.0 PPG, 44.4% FG, 34.3% 3PT, 12.1 TO, +1.1 REB MARGIN

IOWA HAWKEYES PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP

Lucy Olsen	Point Guard	5-10/ Sr.	Averaging team-high 17.9 PPG, 3.7 REB and 4.9 AST. Leads the team in assists (127) and made field goals (174). Scored 20+ points in six of last nine games. 20 pts, 5 reb, 3 ast vs Michigan
Taylor McCabe	Guard	5-9/ Jr.	Averaging 7.0 PPG and 2.4 REB. Leads the team in made threes (57). Registered nine games with 3+ made threes. 6 pts, 2 ast vs Michigan
Kylie Feuerbach	Guard	6-0/ rSr.	Averaging 6.1 PPG and 2.1 REB. Third on the team in made threes (27). Recorded six steals against NIU. Second on the team in steals (33). 6 pts, 4 ast, 4 stl vs Michigan
Syd Affolter	Forward	5-11/ Sr.	Averaging 8.5 PPG and 8.3 REB. Big Ten All-Tournament Team last season. Grabbed 5+ rebounds in 25 of 27 games. 24 pts, 11 reb, 3 ast vs Michigan
Hannah Stuelke	Center	6-2/ Jr.	Averaging 12.7 PPG and 7.6 REB. Leads the team in offensive rebounds (61), second in total rebounds (197), third in made field goals (115). 13 pts, 5 reb, 2 ast vs Michigan

WISCONSIN BADGERS PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP

Ronnie Porter	Guard	5-4/ Jr.	Averaging 8.7 PPG, 3.9 REB and 5.2 AST. Leads in the team in assists (140) and steals (44), third in made field goals (92). 13 pts, 3 reb, 3 ast vs UCLA
Natalie Leuzinger	Guard	5-8/ Grad Sr.	Averaging 7.1 PPG and 2.3 REB. Third on the team in made threes (33), fourth in assists (42). 5 pts, 2 reb vs UCLA
Tess Myers	Guard	5-9/ Grad Sr.	Duquesne transfer. Averaging 7.1 PPG and 1.8 REB. Leads the team in made threes (61), fourth in made field goals (67). Made 3+ threes in 12 games.
Carter McCray	Forward	6-1/ Soph.	Northern Kentucky transfer. Averaging 10.5 PPG and 7.2 REB. Leads the team in offensive rebounds (89), second in made field goals (122) and total rebounds (202). 8 pts, 9 reb, 3 ast vs UCLA
Serah Williams	Center	6-4/ Jr.	Averaging 19.2 PPG, 10.0 REB and 2.5 AST. Leads the team in made field goals (209), total rebounds (280) and blocks (63). 22 pts, 5 reb vs UCLA

WISCONSIN PLAYER TO WATCH: Guard Tess Myers

The Badgers are likely going to enter this game as 20-point underdogs. How do you keep a game close when the odds are that stacked against you? Three-point shooting. A bunch of made threes can close the gap in a game like this and Duquesne transfer Tess Myers can fill it up from behind the arc. Myers is shooting 37.0% from three-point range and leads the team with 61 made triples. A career 38.0% three-point shooter, she has totaled 340 career triples, including 20 games with 5+ made threes. Last season while playing for the Dukes, Myers knocked down a career-high 11 of 16 (68.8%) threes against Longwood. If you’re Wisconsin, it’s going to take more than Tess Myers to pull an upset, but if she knocks down 6-8 threes, it could change the game significantly.

IOWA PLAYER TO WATCH: Guard Taylor McCabe

Sticking with the three-point shooting theme, Taylor McCabe is the player to watch for the Hawkeyes. The Wisconsin defense ranks 317th in the country in three-point percentage defense, allowing opponents to shoot 34.3% from behind the arc. As for McCabe, she has been getting more shots up in Iowa’s recent games. Over her first 21 games, Taylor averaged 4.6 three-point attempts per game, but that number has jumped to 5.43 per game over the last seven games. Although her attempts are up, she is just 14 of 38 (36.8%) during that stretch, which is still a very solid shooting percentage, but below what she normally shoots. Add up the factors: poor three-point defense from Wisconsin, more looks for McCabe lately, and she’s been shooting a little below her normal average. All the signs point to a solid day from Taylor. I’ll take the over 2.5 made threes for McCabe.

KEY MATCHUP TO WATCH: Center Hannah Stuelke/Addi O’Grady vs Center Serah Williams

This is going to be a matchup to watch on both ends of the floor. It’s pretty well-known what Serah Williams can do, with her ability to go for a double-double on any night, so it will be interesting to see how the Hawkeyes’ defense attempts to limit her. However, my focus is more on what will happen on the offensive end for Iowa. With the postseason just days away, Jan Jensen and Co. are desperately looking for some positive momentum for Hannah Stuelke. Over her last five games, Stuelke is averaging 8.8 points and is just 19 of 50 (38.0%) from the floor. Although Williams ranks second in the Big Ten in shots blocked (63), the Badgers interior defense is not great. They rank last in the conference in field goal percentage given up within 4.5 feet of the basket (65.0%). In last year’s meeting in Madison, Hannah Stuelke finished with 21 points on 8/16 shooting. Iowa is playing their best basketball of the season, but they need a bit more out of their post players.

BREAKING DOWN THE BADGERS

The Wisconsin women’s basketball program is still searching for their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2010, but fourth-year head coach Marisa Moseley has made program during her time in Madison. She has amassed a 47-62 record with the Badgers, including a trip to the WNIT Elite Eight last season. This season, Wisconsin is 13-15 overall and 4-13 in Big Ten play, but have locked up a spot in the Big Ten Tournament. Last time out, on Wednesday, the Badgers fell to #2 UCLA 91-61 in Madison.

Breaking down the rest of Wisconsin’s projected starting lineup, the offense has some highly capable three-point shooters, but still heavily relies on their frontcourt duo to take the scoring load. 6’4 junior center Serah Williams is tasked with carrying the load on most nights, which can sometimes impact her field goal percentage, but she’s one of the most underrated players in the conference. Williams averages a double-double 19.2 points and 10.0 rebounds per game, while she has also totaled 69 assists, 63 blocks and 30 steals. She has scored 20+ points in 14 games and totaled 10+ rebounds in 14 games.

Don’t let her 49.3% field goal percentage fool you, Williams can convert at a high-level in the paint. She is 114 of 167 (68.3%) on shots within 4.5 feet of the basket, while she shoots 58.8% (170/289) on shots in the paint. Williams is a capable midrange jump shooter, knocking down 38 of 124 (30.6%) from that range, but won’t extend beyond the three-point line where she is just 1 of 11 (9.1%) on the season.

The other half of the Badgers frontcourt duo is 6’1 Northern Kentucky transfer Carter McCray. Horizon League Freshman of the Year a year ago for the Norse, McCray is averaging 10.5 points and 7.2 rebounds per game. Her biggest impact, aside from scoring in double figures, is her offensive rebounding. She averages 4.97 offensive rebounds per 40 minutes and has totaled 21 offensive boards over her last four games (5.3 per gm). As a scorer, McCray is elite around the basket, shooting 70.9% (90/127) on attempts within 4.5 feet of the basket. Her range is pretty limited compared to Williams, with just 26 of her 212 (12.3%) field goal attempts coming outside of the paint.

At point guard, 5’4 junior Ronnie Porter is undersized, but is a scrappy player that still finds ways to score. She is averaging 8.7 points, 3.9 rebounds and a team-best 5.2 assists per game. Porter has struggled from three-point range, making just 16 of her 73 (21.9%) attempts, but is shooting 44.9% (76/169) inside the arc. She has recently found some scoring, putting up 41 points over her last three games (13.7 ppg), while she has recorded 5+ assists in 16 games. Porter will also make some plays on the defensive end, leading the Badgers with 44 steals.

Rounding out the Wisconsin projected starting five is 5’8 grad senior guard Natalie Leuzinger. In the midst of the best shooting season of her career, Leuzinger is averaging 7.1 points and 2.3 rebounds per game, while she has tied a career-high with 33 made threes. With Tess Myers giving the Badgers another weapon from three-point range, Leuzinger has taken less attempts and her three-point percentage has jumped from 30.8% to 42.3%. She has made multiple three-pointers in 11 games, with her season-high three triples coming against Michigan.

Head coach Marisa Moseley relies on her starters more than most, with her starting five averaging 29.2 minutes per game. That means there’s not a lot to break down when it comes to the Badgers bench. It will likely be a seven-player main rotation.

5’10 junior guard Lily Krahn provides some perimeter shooting depth, knocking down 35 of her 94 (37.2%) three-point attempts this season. Overall, she’s averaging just 4.8 points per game, but has made 3+ threes in six games, including a season-high five made threes against Maryland. Krahn is only averaging 17.1 minutes per game in Big Ten play, but is going to get her shots up, totaling 3.7 made threes per 40 minutes.

The other name to know is 6’2 grad senior guard Halle Douglass. She averages 4.7 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 21.4 minutes per game. Douglass isn’t generally going to score a ton, but she has put up 8+ points in five Big Ten games, including a season-high 17 points and three made threes against Penn State. She is a solid distributor, totaling 64 assists to just 34 turnovers, including 11 games with 3+ assists.

Shooting Heat Maps (CBB Analytics): Iowa and Wisconsin

A deeper look at the advanced stats behind the matchup between the Hawkeyes and Badgers…

THE PICK

Warren Nolan Projection: IOWA 83 WISCONSIN 61

Bart Torvik Projection: IOWA 79 WISCONSIN 58

With the way these programs have performed over the past couple of decades and where they are right now, it seems pretty fair to say that whenever Wisconsin ends the losing streak in this rivalry, it’s going to be an upset win. It would be quite the shocker if it happened today.

The Badgers aren’t bad on offense from a talent standpoint. They have an above average interior duo (Williams-McCray), an elite three-point shooter (Myers), a couple secondary shooters (Leuzinger-Krahn) and have an undersized, but scrappy point guard (Porter). It all came together against Michigan, and they pulled off the 82-75 upset. Their issue is their defense is one of the worst in the country. They rank 150th in rebounding, 317th in three-point defense, 347th in points per possession allowed and 358th in forced turnover rate. That’s just way too many weaknesses to overcome when visiting Carver-Hawkeye Arena. IOWA 81 WISCONSIN 63