Iowa Women's Basketball Tip Time Preview: Wisconsin

WISCONSIN BADGERS (13-16, 4-14) VS IOWA HAWKEYES (20-9, 10-8)

Big Ten Tournament First Round

TIME: ~7:30pm CT

TV: Peacock -Sloane Martin and Kim Adams

SERIES: 81st Meeting – Iowa leads the series 60-20 – Iowa has won 30 consecutive meetings

BY THE NUMBERS

OFFENSE: IOWA: 74.6 PPG, 46.2% FG, 34.6% 3PT, 16.0 TO WISCONSIN: 65.9 PPG, 43.1% FG, 33.5% 3PT, 15.2 TO

DEFENSE: IOWA: 65.8 PPG, 39.7% FG, 33.9% 3PT, 15.5 TO, +6.7 REB MARGIN WISCONSIN: 71.3 PPG, 44.7% FG, 34.3% 3PT, 12.0 TO, +0.8 REB MARGIN

IOWA HAWKEYES PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP

Lucy Olsen	Point Guard	5-10/ Sr.	Averaging team-high 18.0 PPG, 3.7 REB and 4.8 AST. Leads the team in assists (129) and made field goals (183). Scored 20+ points in seven of last ten games. 22 pts, 3 reb, 2 ast vs Wisconsin
Taylor McCabe	Guard	5-9/ Jr.	Averaging 6.7 PPG and 2.4 REB. Leads the team in made threes (57). Registered nine games with 3+ made threes.
Kylie Feuerbach	Guard	6-0/ rSr.	Averaging 6.2 PPG and 2.1 REB. Third on the team in made threes (29). Recorded six steals against NIU. Second on the team in steals (34). 8 pts, 3 ast vs Wisconsin
Syd Affolter	Forward	5-11/ Sr.	Averaging 8.5 PPG and 8.1 REB. Big Ten All-Tournament Team last season. Grabbed 5+ rebounds in 25 of 28 games. 10 pts, 3 reb, 4 ast vs Wisconsin
Hannah Stuelke	Center	6-2/ Jr.	Averaging 13.0 PPG and 7.9 REB. Leads the team in offensive rebounds (70), second in total rebounds (212), third in made field goals (122). 21 pts, 15 reb, 3 ast, 4 stl vs Wisconsin

WISCONSIN BADGERS PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP

Ronnie Porter	Guard	5-4/ Jr.	Averaging 8.7 PPG, 3.8 REB and 51 AST. Leads in the team in assists (143) and steals (45), third in made field goals (95). 8 pts, 3 ast vs Iowa
Natalie Leuzinger	Guard	5-8/ Grad Sr.	Averaging 6.9 PPG and 2.2 REB. Third on the team in made threes (33), fourth in assists (43).
Tess Myers	Guard	5-9/ Grad Sr.	Duquesne transfer. Averaging 7.3 PPG and 1.8 REB. Leads the team in made threes (65), fourth in made field goals (71). Made 3+ threes in 13 games. 12 pts, 2 stl vs Iowa
Carter McCray	Forward	6-1/ Soph.	Northern Kentucky transfer. Averaging 10.7 PPG and 7.3 REB. Leads the team in offensive rebounds (93), second in made field goals (128) and total rebounds (212). 17 pts, 10 reb vs Iowa
Serah Williams	Center	6-4/ Jr.	Averaging 19.1 PPG, 10.0 REB and 2.5 AST. Leads the team in made field goals (215), total rebounds (290) and blocks (64). 18 pts, 10 reb, 3 ast vs Iowa

MARCH 2ND: IOWA 81 WISCONSIN 66

Just days ago, the Hawkeyes and Badgers met at Carver-Hawkeye Arena for the regular season finale for both sides. Iowa entered the game as 21.5-point favorite, but Wisconsin hung around in the first half thanks in large part to the contributions of Serah Williams and Carter McCray. Meanwhile Tess Myers knocked down three triples to send the game to halftime tied at 36.

The Hawkeyes took control early in the second half, hitting a trio of three-pointers in the first two minutes to build a 45-36 lead. Wisconsin kept the game within striking distance for much of the third and fourth quarter, but never truly threatened. A chaotic possession with four Hannah Stuelke offensive boards and, finally, a putback served as the exclamation point, putting Iowa up 70-57 with five minutes to play.

For the game, Iowa shot 30 of 58 (51.7%) from the floor and 7 of 20 (35.0%) from three-point range. Lucy Olsen led the way with 22 points, while Hannah Stuelke recorded a double-double, 21 points and 15 rebounds. Syd Affolter and Addi O’Grady each chipped in 10 points apiece.

WISCONSIN PLAYER TO WATCH: Guards Tess Myers and Lily Krahn

If the Badgers want to have a chance to flip Sunday’s result or at least have a chance going into the fourth quarter, three-point shooting is what can turn the tides. Coach Marisa Moseley got great production out of her frontcourt duo, but that alone is not enough to beat the Hawkeyes. Tess Myers hit four three-pointers, including three in the first half, while Lily Krahn added another. If Wisconsin is going to make a run at an upset, they will need Myers-Krahn to combine for 7-9 made threes, which is something they are capable of doing. Tess Myers has made 3+ threes in 13 games this season, while Lily Krahn has made 3+ triples in six games.

KEY MATCHUP TO WATCH: Iowa frontcourt vs Wisconsin frontcourt

The battle between the two frontcourts will be the matchup to watch in the rematch. Serah Williams and Carter McCray spearheaded Wisconsin’s attack, combining for 35 points on 12/27 (44.4%) shooting, along with 20 rebounds. On the other hand, the Hawkeyes’ post trio of Stuelke, O’Grady, and Heiden matched that output with 35 points and 18 rebounds, led by Hannah Stuelke’s double-double.

Although Iowa won the points in the paint battle 44-36, we could see them make a tweak to how they defend the Badgers. The Hawkeyes had some trouble matching up and defending Williams-McCray with Stuelke-Affolter, especially in the first half, but were still able to match their production. I expect the coaching staff to make some adjustments in how the defend the paint in attempt to limit the production they give up. While the Badgers will get their points inside, the key for Iowa is to match that output. On Sunday, both frontcourts scored evenly, with Wisconsin only having a +2 edge on the glass. A similar stat line would favor Iowa in the rematch.

BREAKING DOWN THE MATCHUP

Wisconsin enters the Big Ten Tournament with a 13-16 overall record, including a 4-14 mark in Big Ten play. The Badgers finished the regular season with a 1-14 record against Q1/2 opponents, but did upset Michigan in late January. In her fourth year as head coach at Wisconsin, Marisa Moseley is 0-3 at the Big Ten Tournament.

In Big Ten play, the Badgers averaged 63.3 points (16th in the Big Ten), while their defense allowed 77.6 points per game (16th). Meanwhile, Iowa is scoring 72.6 (9th) and allowing 67.2 points per game (6th) in Big Ten play. The Hawkeyes have made 136 threes in Big Ten play (4th), while Wisconsin has knocked down 111 triples (10th). From a rebounding standpoint, the Badgers are averaging 22.2 defensive rebounds (16th) and 9.7 offensive rebounds (13th) per game in Big Ten play. As for the Hawkeyes, they are one of the best rebounding teams in the conference, and in the country, averaging 27.2 defensive rebounds (3rd) and 10.7 offensive rebounds (9th) per game against Big Ten opponents. Looking at turnovers, Wisconsin is averaging 16.2 (15th), while the Hawkeyes are giving it away 15.0 times per game (13th).

Looking at some of the critical statistics from the first meeting, Iowa outrebounded Wisconsin 34-25, pulling down 23 of 31 (74.2%) defensive rebounds and 11 of 28 (39.3%) offensive rebounds, led by Hannah Stuelke’s 15 rebounds. The turnover battle went in favor of the Hawkeyes as well, limiting themselves to just 11 turnovers, while forcing 13 Badgers turnovers. Iowa won the points off turnovers/second chance points battle 30-17. At the free throw line, both teams were very solid, with Iowa shooting 14/15 (93.3%) and Wisconsin shooting 13/15 (86.7%).

Shooting Heat Maps (CBB Analytics): Iowa and Wisconsin

A deeper look at the advanced stats behind the matchup between the Hawkeyes and Badgers…

THE PICK

Warren Nolan Projection:

Bart Torvik Projection: IOWA 77 WISCONSIN 61

This is a pretty unique matchup, as the two sides just faced each other three days ago on Sunday afternoon in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes won their 30th consecutive game against the Badgers then and will look to add to the tally tonight. In the short term, a win would move Iowa along to the second round, but it would move them a step closer to locking up a 6 seed at the NCAA Tournament.

Although it’s a tough spot for the Hawkeyes to have a rematch against a team with nothing to lose and desperate to end a near two-decade-long losing streak, today’s matchup could go more smoothly for Jan Jensen and Co. In the second half of Sunday’s win, the coaching staff made some defensive adjustments, and Iowa outscored the Badgers 45-30, holding them to 33.3% shooting from the floor. As for Wisconsin, they played a pretty good game, but defense has been their downfall all season and they gave up 81 points. It’s hard to imagine a defense that’s allowing 77.6 points per game against Big Ten opponents will suddenly hold Iowa in the 60’s, so that means Wisconsin either needs to make more threes or ask for even more out of their frontcourt duo. I just don’t think the Badgers have enough in the tank. IOWA 80 WISCONSIN 61