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Iowa wrestling NCAA preview: the lower weights/team race

by:Tanner Lafever•about 13 hours•

TannerLafever

Drake Ayala 2
#2 Drake Ayala (133 pounds) looks to make his return to the NCAA finals this weekend. (Photo Credit: University of Iowa Athletics)

Welcome back, one and all, to Part Two of our Iowa men’s wrestling 2025 NCAA Championships preview.

In Part One – published last night – I dove into the back half of the Hawkeye lineup. Today, we’re rounding things out with the lower weights, as well as a looking at where Iowa figures to stack up in the team trophy race.

(Spoiler: Barring a meteor strike at the Penn State hotel, the Hawkeyes – and everyone else – will be fighting for second behind the powerhouse Nittany Lions.)

Without an NCAA qualifier at 141 pounds, a quarter of wrestlers will represent the Black & Gold from 125-157. Among them, a pair of returning national finalists, a four-time All-American, and an NCAA debutant.

Overall success will be measured differently for each of them, but the match-to-match goal assuredly remains the same:

Get your hand raised – then get ready to do it again.

So, without further ado, let’s dive in. With just two days left before action gets underway in Philadelphia (March 20-22) there’s no time to waste.

133 pounds – Drake’s title dream

Not 365 days ago, Drake Ayala came up achingly short of a lifelong wrestling dream, losing in the NCAA final.

Now the junior returns to the championship stage looking to take the final step beyond that runner-up finish.

He’ll also be motivated to right the wrong of (another) more recent runner-up performance in which he shockingly lost by fall at Big Tens.

Fortunately for Ayala, his only two losses against this field at 133 pounds are both on the opposite side of the bracket.

The Fort Dodge native should have little trouble in Round 1, but things will quickly escalate thereafter.

Either #15 Anthony Noto (Lock Haven) or #18 Julian Farber (UNI) await in Round 2.

Noto finished one spot below Ayala at 125 pounds a year ago – though he’s wrestled well below that form at his new weight this season. Farber is a typical scrapper from UNI who just took third at Big 12’s.

Advance, and it could be either of two Big 10 foes next.

#7 Nic Bouzakis (Ohio State) and Ayala have just missed facing off twice this season, but the Buckeye is perhaps the most unpredictable wrestler in the field.

Or maybe it’s #10 Dylan Shawver (Rutgers) instead. The 2024 Big Ten champion finished seventh at NCAAs a year ago. He and Ayala also just met in the Big Ten semis, with the Hawkeye winning a controlled 8-2 decision.

As for a possible semifinal opponent, I’m not sure who emerges. Ayala has a 5-0 career record against a quartet of wrestlers from the upper half of the bottom half of the bracket, but has never faced either #3 Nasir Bailey (Little Rock) or #6 Connor McGonagle (Virginia Tech).

If it’s Bailey who progresses, the talented sophomore did take fourth at 133 a year ago. However, he’s been a bit inconsistent this season.

I think Ayala gets it done in the semis, setting up a rubber match against top-seeded Lucas Byrd (Illinois).

It was just nine days ago that Byrd stunned Ayala in that Big Ten final – this after the Hawkeye had prevailed 4-2 in the regular season.

I think Drake uses both that lesson as well as what he learned from last year’s NCAA final to reverse both runner-up results this go around.

Finals Prediction: #2 Drake Ayala (Iowa) over #1 Lucas Byrd (Illinois)

149 pounds – Parco’s last ride

One of three Iowa seniors heading to Philadelphia, Kyle Parco has had plenty of success on the sport’s biggest stage. However, he hasn’t yet attained its greatest prize.

A four-time All-American (6th/8th/4th/5th from 2021-24), the Arizona State graduate transfer is the #5 seed at 149 pounds this week.

And with a 26-7 career record against the field, Parco has the good fortune of not seeing any wrestler who’s previously defeated him until the semifinal.

I’m interested to see both (potential) Second Round and Quarterfinal matchups against two recent conference champions.

#12 Ethan Stiles (Oregon State) really finished the year strong for the Beavers, capping things off with a Pac-12 title. So too did #4 Paniro Johnson (Iowa State), winning Big 12’s for the Cyclones.

Interestingly, Iowa dualed both programs this season, but Parco faced neither wrestler – each of whom were then competing at 157.

*Parco does own a prior win over Johnson (7-5 in SV) from the 2022-23 season.

I think the Hawkeye navigates both matchups to reach the semifinals – clinching his fifth-consecutive All-American honor in the process.

That’s where his run ends, however, as returning NCAA champ Caleb Henson (Virginia Tech) is my pick until proven otherwise. The Hokie defeated Parco (5-0) in their lone previous meeting back in 2023, and he’s only gotten better.

From there, Parco responds with a win in the consolation semis before ultimately taking fourth to #3 Shayne Van Ness (Penn State).

As always, I’ll happily be proven wrong. But even without a storybook ending, Parco would’ve had one heck of a career as a five-time All-American.

Finals Prediction: #1 Caleb Henson over #2 Ridge Lovett (Nebraska)

Hawkeye Finish: #5 Kyle Parco (Iowa) – 4th place

157 pounds – A total mystery

I believe two things to be true about Jacori Teemer:

  1. He can beat any wrestler in this field at 157 pounds.
  2. I wouldn’t feel comfortable predicting him to defeat anywhere from 10-15 of them.

What’s also true is that as of Friday, November 22, that second notion would’ve seemed unfathomable.

Teemer – a three-time All-American at Arizona State – was just getting his Iowa career rolling with a 2-0 record (both via bonus). He was fast, flashy and explosive – a style of Hawkeye wrestler fans weren’t used to watching.

And then he was gone – sidelined for two months by a serious leg injury suffered in the Cy-Hawk dual.

Since his return, Teemer’s leg has largely appeared in solid working order. But a subsequent shoulder injury – necessitating a hefty brace – has complicated matters once again.

Now, the 2024 NCAA runner-up has lost three of his last eight matches, all either one-takedown or sudden victory affairs. This, even though amidst it all he still shows flashes of brilliance that make you believe in his championship ceiling.

So, what exactly will he look like over the next few days?

I have no idea.

A seventh-place finish at Big Tens has saddled Teemer with a #18 seed in Philadelphia. And with that draw comes a (potential) Second Round clash with talented (albeit oft-injured) Cornell sophomore, #2 Meyer Shapiro.

I can’t in good conscience pick Teemer in that matchup, much less to advance even further in the championship bracket.

But given the perseverance through injury we’ve already seen from him this season – plus his abundant talent – I think Teemer still grits his way to an All-American conclusion to his college career.

Finals Prediction: #2 Meyer Shapiro (Cornell) over #1 Tyler Kasak (Penn State)

Hawkeye Finish: #18 Jacori Teemer (Iowa) – 7th place

125 pounds – No easy debut

Joey Cruz’s best odds at advancing at NCAAs probably hinged on how well he did two weeks ago at Big Tens.

Unfortunately for the sophomore, that didn’t go so well – finishing tenth after entering seeded fifth.

That left Cruz in need of a wildcard berth to NCAAs – which he got – along with a subsequent #29 seed.

While he does have several nice wins this season over wrestlers seeded #11, #19 and #20 respectively, I can’t envision Cruz stringing enough great performances together to push for a podium finish.

And it’ll get even harder assuming he falls to the consolations right away after facing #4 Vincent Robinson (NC State).

Any points Iowa gets from Cruz this weekend should probably be considered a bonus. That said, he’s got plenty to gain from this experience moving forward regardless of how long his stay in Philly may wind up being.

Finals Prediction: #2 Matt Ramos (Purdue) over #1 Luke Lilledahl (Penn State)

Hawkeye Prediction: #29 Joey Cruz (Iowa) – DNP

141 pounds

With no Hawkeye qualifier in the field at 141, I’m picking the highest seed out of all 10 weight clases to take home this individual title.

Then again, it’s not exactly going out on a limb to select a guy who has just one loss all season – and oh yeah, was the undefeated NCAA champ two years ago to boot.

Finals Prediction: #8 Andrew Alirez (Northern Colorado) over #2 Beau Bartlett (Penn State)

The team ‘race’

There’s no way to sugarcoat it – Penn State will be your 2025 NCAA champion barring a meltdown of biblical proportions.

Furthermore, after breaking the all-time team scoring record a year ago there’s a very real chance the Nittany Lions do it again.

And so, the real race is for the three remaining team trophies – particularly second place.

Entering the tournament, based strictly upon seeds Iowa is favored to claim runner-up status.

*Courtesy of FloWrestling.

But what had (roughly) been a projected 20-point gap between the Hawkeyes and #3 Oklahoma State for the entirety of the post-Christmas schedule is now down to just two.

The Cowboys haven’t exactly made huge gains, either. In fact, they’ve fallen back toward the pack just as Iowa has following its disappointing Big Tens performance.

At present, the (projected) margins are clearly tight enough that Iowa could in theory miss out on a team trophy altogether – just as it narrowly did in last season’s fifth-place finish.

Conversely, if the Hawkeyes simply wrestle like they have for most of the past 4.5 months they should be considerable favorites for the number two position.

Based on my individual projections for the nine Iowa qualifiers I’ve got the Hawkeyes at 96 points (give or take).

That’s obviously a significant difference from the 70 they’re currently projected to score. It also doesn’t include bonus points (which are omitted from every projected team total on the list).

Even if my 96-point projection proves to be slightly optimistic, I think a ‘B-plus’ showing from the Hawkeyes will still probably be enough to finish second.

Then again, what we just saw at Big Tens was far from ‘B-plus’ territory. So, Iowa certainly has something to prove this weekend.

How to watch

The ESPN family of networks will be your home to the 2025 NCAA Wrestling Championships – just as its been for as long as I can remember.

Here’s the official press release from the company as to its coverage layout for all three days.

And here’s a summary of the TV schedule (all times central):

Thursday, March 20

Session I: First Round

  • 11:00 a.m. – 2:30 p.m. (ESPNU)

Session II: Second Round, Consolations (1st round)

  • 6:00 p.m. – 9:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Friday, March 21

Session III: Quarterfinals, Consolations (2nd/3rd rounds)

  • 11:00 a.m. – 2:00 p.m. (ESPNU)

Session IV: Semifinals, Consolations (4th round/quarterfinals)

  • 7:00 p.m. – 10:00 p.m. (ESPN2)

Saturday, March 22

Session V: Medal Round (Consolation semifinals + 3rd/5th/7th place matches)

  • 10:00 a.m. – 1:00 p.m. (ESPNU)

Session VI: Championship Finals

  • 6:00 p.m. – 9:00 p.m. (ESPN)

Also important to note, ESPN+ will stream each individual mat all the way up until the finals. So, to ensure you don’t miss a single Hawkeye in action I’d have ESPN+ at the ready at all times.

Meanwhile, another ESPN+ feature is the ‘MatCast.’

Per ESPN,

“The MatCast option – with every mat and every match – will be streamed live through the Medal Round via ESPN+. The presentation will show multi-boxes of all the mats, so viewers never miss a single point. ESPN once again has a dedicated announce team to further bolster the MatCast coverage.”

As has also become standard procedure for followers of the Iowa men’s program, the Hawkeye Radio Network will have wall-to-wall coverage throughout the NCAA Championships.

Steven Grace (play-by-play) and two-time NCAA champion Mark Ironside (color) will be on the call.

Broadcasts of every session can be found on AM 800 KXIC and streaming on the official Iowa Hawkeyes YouTube channel – Session I is linked below.

Short time

There you have it – the conclusion of this year’s NCAA Championships preview.

Based on cumulative word count, it sure seems like we ‘wrestled the full seven minutes’ (and probably a bit extra).

The characters have been introduced. The stage has been set.

Now all that’s left is to watch nine Hawkeyes scrap for every inch/point against a field of 321 equally motivated opponents.

As far as ‘goals’ go for Iowa – I think it’s pretty simple:

  • A second-place team finish.
  • Crown at least one individual national champion.

Look, 34-consecutive tournaments with an Iowa wrestler reaching the finals is a laudable achievement. So too is 53-consecutive tournaments with an All-American.

But at this point, neither of those streaks move the needle as it pertains to where the Hawkeyes want to go and who they’re chasing to get there.

Other than Spencer Lee (2018-19, 2021) no Iowa wrestler has won an individual NCAA title since Cory Clark in 2017. Before Clark it was Tony Ramos (2014).

Spencer Lee obviously continues to carry massive cachet, but Iowa needs another champion for future generations to aspire to.

(Iowa also hasn’t crowned multiple NCAA champs since 2010.)

Now’s the time, even if this year’s team race is well out of reach.

I’ll wrap up by just saying thanks again to everyone for following along with my coverage all season long. It’s been my privilege to serve this passionate fan base, and I aim to make these next few days my best work yet.

Be sure to check Hawkeye Report for my daily recaps of the action in Philly. And if you’re so inclined, you can follow me on social media for up-to-the-minute coverage all weekend long.

This is it – we made it!

Enjoy the wrestling and I’ll catch you guys again real soon.

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