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Iowa wrestling NCAA preview: the upper weights

by:Tanner Lafever•about 17 hours•

TannerLafever

Stephen Buchanan
#2 seed Stephen Buchanan (197 pounds) could avenge his lone defeat this season in a potential NCAA final rematch. (Photo Credit: Ethan McLaughlin/Daily Iowan)

Iowa fans are a blessed bunch when compared to much of the country at this time each year.

Because while many other fanbases derive their jubilation/anxiety solely from the early-spring NCAA Championship event(s) on the hardwood – a little thing you’ve probably heard of called March Madness – the Hawkeye faithful have another equally if not more compelling tournament to pour their emotions into.

And with that, it’s time for the 2025 NCAA Wrestling Championships.

We’ll be doing something a little different with this pre-tournament breakdown – splitting the preview between upper/lower weights.

Perhaps it’ll make things more digestible for readers. Perhaps it’ll help to maintain my own sanity as things inevitably stretch into the thousands of words. Or perhaps it’ll all come out in the wash pretty much the same as a year ago.

(Regardless, we’re all about to find out together!)

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania is the site of this season’s championship event. And from March 20-22 (Thursday–Saturday) there’ll be no better place in the world for a wrestling fan to be.

That said, a close second will be on one’s couch at home – where I’ll be hooked up to multiple screens/devices like The Matrix to give folks comprehensive coverage of the Hawkeyes all weekend long.

Iowa enters NCAAs fresh off a disappointing third-place Big Ten Championships finish.

Even so, it currently sits second in projected NCAA team score based off the tournament seeds announced last week.

(I’ll break down the team race more extensively during my preview of the lower weights.)

But for all the talk of ‘team’ wrestling is still a sport predicated upon individual accomplishment. And thus, success for Iowa this weekend will depend upon how its nine individual qualifiers perform.

Let’s look at five of them now – starting with the upper weights (in descending order of seed).

197 pounds – A Buchanan bounce back?

One of my biggest surprises watching the Hawkeyes this season was the last match from the guy who’d been their best performer since November.

Stephen Buchanan entered the Big Ten final undefeated (21-0) and had not given up a takedown since late-December. For whatever reason, both streaks came to an end against Michigan’s Jacob Cardenas in the same untimely match.

With the loss, Buchanan enters NCAAs as the #2 seed at 197 pounds, but with a very favorable path to the semifinals.

After a (likely) first round walkover, he’d face either #15 Joseph Novak (Wyoming) or #18 Dillon Bechtold (Bucknell) next.

Less-than-threatening seeds aside, Buchanan is also 2-0 in his career against Novak – wins by 11-4 and 6-4 margins last season.

From there, a quarterfinal with one of 2025 Big 12 champ Wyatt Voelker (UNI) or Minnesota’s Isaiah Salazar likely awaits.

I like the Hawkeye in either scenario – a rematch of a February win (5-1) against #10 Salazar or a first-ever meeting against #7 Voelker.

And then things could get really interesting.

Buchanan is 25-4 in his college career against the field at 197. But he wouldn’t see any of those previously victorious opponents until the semis/finals.

One of them – the #3 seed and the only undefeated wrestler at 197 this season – is none other than AJ Ferrari.

Where to begin with the storylines:

  1. He’s the older brother of star Iowa freshman Angelo.
  2. He was a 2021 national champion as a true freshman for Oklahoma State.
  3. Before this season, he’d barely competed since that individual title due to various off-the-mat incidents.
  4. Before arriving at Cal State Bakersfield (where he’s competed in relative obscurity this season), it appeared AJ might be Iowa’s next 197-pounder – and we all know how that saga ended.

Bottom line, (AJ) Ferrari is a massive talent, but one whose true level we don’t know right now compared to the top of the field at 197. That said, he does also hold a 2-0 career record over Buchanan – winning 13-8 and 4-2 back in 2021.

Because of the unknowns about Ferrari’s (current) level of performance, and because I firmly believed up until the Big Ten final that Buchanan was the best 197-pounder in the country I’m going to go with the Hawkeye.

And I’ll keep that logic going right on through the NCAA final in another (more recent) rematch.

I’m trusting a season’s worth of eye-test rather than just the latest snapshot. Give me Buchanan to flip the script against #1 Cardenas. He’s beaten the Wolverine before (9-4 at NCAAs a year ago) and I think he does it again – capping an incredible one-year Hawkeye career in absolute style.

Finals Prediction: #2 Stephen Buchanan (Iowa) over #1 Jacob Cardenas (Michigan)

165 pounds – Can Mikey make it happen?

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: there are no guarantees in the sport of wrestling.

And so, I’m merely penciling (not penning) the names Mitchell Mesenbrink and Michael Caliendo into the final at 165 pounds.

Caliendo is 24-5 against the field with all five losses coming against Mesenbrink. He’s 13-0 against the rest of the top 10 seeds and 16-0 if you extend it to the top 12.

(I think you’re starting to see my point here.)

Therefore, much like any path to the final that excludes Mesenbrink, I love this draw for Caliendo.

He should breeze to the quarters through a pod chock full of Iowa ties:

  • Round 1 foe Aiden Riggins (Iowa State) was a Hawkeye as of last season.
  • So too was #14 Drake Rhodes (South Dakota State), who’s had a nice year since transferring in the offseason.
  • UNI’s #19 Jack Thomsen is the other potential Round of 16 foe.

You like Caliendo’s quarterfinal odds against #6 Beau Mantanona (Michigan) or #11 Braeden Scoles (Illinois), too.

Mantanona – third at Big Tens – lost to Caliendo 9-4 last season. Scoles was teched by him twice this season.

Give me Caliendo in a semifinal against wildly miss-seeded #2 Adam Hall (West Virginia), or anyone else from the bottom half of the bracket for that matter.

And that leaves yet another meeting between Caliendo and his Penn State nemesis.

Never has the Hawkeye wrestled the Nittany Lion closer, but more importantly, better than he did in a 4-1 loss in their Big Ten final.

But as they say, “Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.”

Mikey is awesome, full stop.

I just can’t pick him over Mesenbrink until I see it.

Finals Prediction: #1 Mitchell Mesenbrink (Penn State) over #3 Michael Caliendo (Iowa)

285 pounds – Big Ben takes the big stage

Arguably none of Iowa’s nine qualifiers earned a more fortuitous seed/path than Ben Kueter.

The redshirt freshman did so via a dogged consolation performance at Big Tens – which, not to humble brag, was exactly the opportunity I highlighted before the tournament.

By earning the fifth seed Kueter avoided each of the three heavyweight titans (Steveson/Hendrickson/Kerkvliet) up until the semifinals – against whom he’s 0-5 in his young career (all via bonus).

His route to that point is beneficial as well.

A Round 1 Cy-Hawk matchup kicks things off, but against ISU backup Daniel Herrera – who took over midseason for Yonger Bastida.

Next up? Either of two Big Ten foes – #12 Nick Feldman (Ohio State) or #21 Jacob Bullock (Indiana).

Kueter is 3-0 against the pair, winning 5-1 (Bullock) and 2-0 (Feldman) at Big Tens, plus another 5-4 win over Feldman (5th at NCAAs a year ago) at the Iowa/Ohio State dual.

Meanwhile, #4 Owen Trephan (Lehigh) is the favored quarterfinal opponent.

Iowa fans may remember that a year ago, Hawkeye heavyweight Bradley Hill defeated Trephan (then at North Carolina State) in Round 1.

Well, Hill is now wrestling at 197 for Oklahoma and Trephan (a two-time ACC champ) is at Lehigh.

Is Kueter’s semifinal path easy? Of course not. But fortuitous is a word that keeps coming to mind.

Sadly, albeit expectedly, his championship run figures to be halted against Gable Steveson in the semis. But simply reaching that point would have already secured All-American status for the homegrown Hawkeye.

He’d then have two opportunities in the consolations to finish between third and sixth.

I think it’ll be somewhere in the middle, with Kueter taking fifth place in his NCAA debut.

Finals Prediction: #1 Gable Steveson (Minnesota) over #3 Greg Kerkvliet (Penn State)

Hawkeye Finish: #5 Ben Kueter (Iowa) – 5th place

174 pounds – Is a podium finish finally in play for PK?

In two previous NCAA appearances, Patrick Kennedy has come up just short of All-American honors.

On both occasions, he was wrestling well enough to reach the podium – it just didn’t come together.

Unfortunately, I think a rough draw could lead to an eerily similar outcome this weekend.

#11 Kennedy opens with Penn’s #22 Nick Incontrera.

That’s noteworthy because he lost their previous matchup via 10-2 major decision in December 2023.

Now for context, PK was still just coming back from a preseason injury at that point. There should be no such rust/conditioning issues this go around, but still, the result is what it is.

Win that, and he figures to see Binghamton #6 seed Brevin Cassella – whom I truthfully know nothing about.

Cassella (25-4) could be an under-the-radar dynamo, or just as easily a benefactor of some seeding shenanigans. His latest result was 4-1 in sudden victory over #7 Danny Wask (Navy) – a foe whom Kennedy thoroughly controlled via 6-2 decision back at the Soldier Salute.

Give me PK to punch his ticket to the quarters before finally running into trouble against #3 Dean Hamiti.

The Oklahoma State Cowboy (formerly of Wisconsin) has history with Kennedy – a pair of competitive matches in 2023 both won by Hamiti (4-3 and 9-6). But I don’t love the stylistic matchup and Hamiti looks like a national title contender this season.

Lose that, and PK is just one more win from assuring All-American status.

The problem is, he may very well have to beat #8 Lenny Pinto (Nebraska) or #9 Carson Kharchla (Ohio State) to get there. And the Husker/Buckeye are 3-0 against the Hawkeye this season.

Here’s hoping PK proves this writer wrong.

Finals Prediction: #1 Keegan O’Toole (Missouri) over #3 Dean Hamiti (Oklahoma State)

Hawkeye Finish: #11 Patrick Kennedy (Iowa) – Round of 12

184 pounds – Gabe gets his moment

Another Hawkeye #11 seed with a tricky, though navigable path to All-American status is the much talked about Gabe Arnold.

Iowa fans want him to be more offensive. Opposing fans (read: Penn State) want to see him lose because he had the ‘audacity’ to say something brash as an 18/19 year old kid about Carter Starocci.

Fun fact, Arnold’s Round 1 opponent – #22 Donnell Washington (Indiana) – was Starocci’s only other contested collegiate loss besides Iowa’s Michael Kememer in the 2021 Big Ten final.

(Arnold and Washington were scheduled to meet in the consolations at Big Tens this year, but the Hoosier injury defaulted just seconds into their match.)

Assuming Gabe gets the job done, he’d presumably face Cornell’s Chris Foca (the #6 seed) next.

The 2023 All-American (3rd at 174) did not reach the podium a year ago in his debut at 184 pounds. That said, given the Cornell program’s pedigree and Foca’s own past success – including a 19-1 record this season – he’ll present a stern test for the Iowa redshirt freshman.

That feels like the general sentiment when it comes to 184 and Arnold – especially once you exclude the top two of Starocci and Parker Keckeisen (UNI).

Gabe is capable of going to-toe-to with everyone ranked third and below. We know this because he’s done it:

  • Lost 4-1 in SV to #3 Max McEnelly (Minnesota)
  • Lost 5-1 to #4 Dustin Plott (Oklahoma State) *2024
  • 1-1 record vs #8 Jaxon Smith (Maryland), both matches went to tiebreakers
  • 1-1 record vs #10 Edmond Ruth (Illinois), both one takedown/tiebreaker matches
  • 1-1 record vs #12 Silas Allred (Nebraska), both one takedown matches

It wouldn’t shock me to see Arnold – who’s never allowed more than one takedown in a match during his college career – go as far as the semifinals. It also wouldn’t shock me to see a relatively early exit in razor-thin fashion.

Ultimately, I think Gabe does more winning than losing in the close ones this weekend. And after falling in the quarters against Minnesota’s #3 McEnelly he wrestles his way back to All-American honors in his NCAA debut.

Finals Prediction: #2 Parker Keckeisen (UNI) over #1 Carter Starocci (Penn State)

Hawkeye Finish: #11 Gabe Arnold (Iowa) – 6th place

More still to come

As I mentioned in the intro, we’ll finish the rest of Iowa’s NCAA preview with a follow-up article tomorrow on the lower weights, the team race and all relevant TV/streaming/schedule information.

I will place a link to that article in this story once both are published.

Until then, keep poring over every bracket/path/permutation. That’s the whole fun of this brief interlude between Big Tens and NCAAs.

Because once Thursday gets here, you’ll be living and breathing with every single movement on the mat.

Thanks as always for reading and I’ll catch you guys tomorrow!

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