2024 USA Olympic Wrestling Trials Preview
When it comes to the sport of wrestling, there is no grander stage than the Olympic Games.
As one of the event’s most ancient competitions – dating back in its origin to 708 B.C.E. – wrestling and the Olympics will always be synonymous with one another (even if the delusional International Olympic Committee actually tried to drop the sport from the Games a little more than a decade ago).
With that said, if you’re an athlete in the United States who aspires to reach and compete on that stage in hopes of returning home with a medal around your neck than Step 1 is relatively simple:
Earn your opportunity to do so by winning the Olympic Trials.
You can’t be the best in the world this summer in Paris without first being the best in America this weekend in State College, Pennsylvania.
That’s where a total of 13 current/former Iowa Hawkeye wrestlers will compete this Friday/Saturday (April 19-20), each of them vying for a coveted berth on Team USA.
**All viewing information for the 2024 Trials, which will be broadcast and/or streamed across both USA Network and Peacock, can be found HERE.**
A quick breakdown for Iowa’s attendees is as follows:
- Nine women, four men
- Seven different weight classes
- Seven NCAA/NCWWC national champions (11 total titles between them)
- Nine national finalists
- TWO Cassioppi’s
(I could go on further, but those felt like the most notable bits of information on the group to mention – especially that ‘Two Cassioppi’s’ part.)
Anyway, here’s how we’re going to proceed:
I’ll give a rundown of each of the weight classes with one or more Hawkeye(s) in the field, doing so in descending order of which I view as the most to least likely bracket to conclude with an Iowa wrestler atop the podium come Saturday night.
When I’m finished, you’ll be able to carry the undeniable wisdom I’ve generously relinquished into your viewing of a phenomenal two days of wrestling ahead us – and by ‘undeniable wisdom’ I most certainly do not encourage any of you to wager any sort of emotional/financial capital this weekend on the musings of yours truly.
Because if we’re being honest with each other, what the heck do I really know?
TO THE BRACKETS.
57 kilograms – Men’s Freestyle
The first and foremost spot to look for a 2024 Hawkeye Olympian is unquestionably 57 kilograms in men’s freestyle.
Why? Well, because Iowa will be represented by arguably both top favorites to win the bracket.
The first, #4 seed Spencer Lee, requires little introduction to Hawkeye fans. His unrelenting dominance (including three NCAA titles) over his career in the Black & Gold singlet is one thing, but for folks less familiar with the freestyle wrestling scene it’s actually Lee’s credentials beyond NCAA competition that have many folks, me included, believing he’s the man to beat in State College.
A three-time age-level World champion (2014-16), his dynamic offense and proficient top game are probably even more dangerous in freestyle – where a smaller mat and a step-out point make it even more difficult for opponents to evade Lee in hopes of stealing a win late.
Most would agree that the Pennsylvania native’s well-chronicled injury history is the only reason fans haven’t seen him make his mark on the domestic/international stages already.
Even still, in three limited appearances at/near full strength on the senior level – including 2019 Senior Nationals, 2023 Bill Farrell and 2023 Senior Nationals – Lee has won all three tournaments, going 12-0 with nine tech. fall victories and outscoring his opponents by a ridiculous 119-13 margin in the process.
He also has the added benefit of drawing what I’d consider the easiest path of any Hawkeye at the Trials. Twice in the last five months Lee has beaten his soon-to-be quarterfinal opponent, Nico Megaludis. Meanwhile, a potential semi could come against what would almost unanimously be considered the ‘weakest’ #1 seed in the men’s freestyle division – 2023 World teamer Zane Richards.
Richards earned that distinction via a surprising run at the 2023 World team trials, but both his results since and his larger body of work on the freestyle scene would seem to paint the University of Illinois grad as a formidable, albeit less-than-intimidating foe to beat with a best-of-three finals berth on the line.
Conversely, the opposite side of the bracket includes names like Nick Suriano, Daton Fix and Thomas Gilman – each of whom are either NCAA champions or previous World medalists.
Gilman, the ‘other’ Hawkeye in this bracket, would seem to be the best bet of the bunch to make the finals based on a seven-year international track record that includes a quartet of World/Olympic medals.
There are, however, questions as to whether the weight cut may be too steep in order for the one-time NCAA finalist to compete at the level required to win a two-day, two weigh-in tournament of this caliber down at 57kg.
A potential finals matchup between the two Hawkeyes is definitely on the table, as would be plenty of drama surrounding it thanks to, among other factors, Gilman having since moved to train in State College with the Nittany Lion Wrestling Club.
Simply put, I think this is Spencer Lee’s time. Quite honestly, that could’ve been the case as far back as six or seven years ago if not for his terrible injury luck, but he’s here now (presumably healthy) and I believe he gets the job done.
It must be noted, however, that a win this weekend will not automatically punch Lee’s ticket to Paris this summer as the United States has yet to qualify 57kg for the upcoming Olympics.
I’ll spare you the long explanation as to why not, but whomever wins this bracket will then be charged with going to Turkey in three weeks’ time (May 9-12) for the World Olympic Games Qualifier. Once there, a top-three finish will be required for an American – be it Lee or someone else – to make the 16-man field in Paris.
Top Hawkeye Finisher – Spencer Lee, 1st place
76 kilograms – Women’s Freestyle
A trio of Hawkeyes – #2 Kylie Welker, #7 Marlynne Deede and #9 Rose Cassioppi – help to make up the loaded 12-woman field at 76 kilograms this weekend.
The 19-year-old Cassioppi, who redshirted this past season – her first as a Hawkeye – is both young and likely a bit undersized for a field such as this. In my estimation, her qualifying for the Trials has already been a massive achievement, and the experience alone from this event will be invaluable as her career moves forward.
An opening round match with #8 Skylar Grote will be a major challenge, and a win there would set up a quarterfinal against young phenom Kennedy Blades. Not the easiest draw by any means.
Shifting to the bottom half of the bracket, #7 Marlynne Deede – the recently crowned two-time NCWWC champion at 155 pounds – has the misfortune (as do many this weekend) of her optimal weight class (72kg, ~158.7 pounds) being absent from the Olympic Games.
Instead, she’ll be forced to make the jump up to roughly 167.5 pounds (76kg), successfully qualifying for the Trials with a runner-up finish at Senior Nationals back in December.
Given that factor, as well as her placement in the bracket, it’s difficult to envision Deede advancing beyond the quarterfinals – thanks most of all to the presence of the Iowa teammate who’ll be waiting for her there.
Kylie Welker probably represents the best opportunity for any non-Lee/Gilman Hawkeye to make Team USA in 2024.
Not only has she been on this stage before, finishing runner up at the 2021 Trials as a 17-year-old to the legendary Adeline Gray, but this weekend’s #2 seed just feels like she has what it takes to be the very best in America right here, right now.
Doing so will likely require a fourth-consecutive win over #3 Yelena Makoyed in the semifinals, an opponent whom Welker has throttled by a 34-5 combined margin in their three most recent meetings – including the final match of the 2024 National Collegiate Women’s Wrestling Championships back in early March that would also decide the team title race between the Hawkeyes and North Central.
From there, another rematch of sorts would probably be in order – this one against the aforementioned Kennedy Blades.
Much like Welker, Blades also made the finals at the 2021 Trials as a teenager, doing so down at 68 kilograms.
And while Welker has beaten her in the past, Blades has won their three most recent meetings dating back to last April – including twice by fall.
Even so, I think Welker has what it takes to get her hand raised this go around, quite possibly thanks to her experience training with Deede, whose length and speed could serve as a decent facsimile to someone like Blades.
Were that to happen, it’d be déjà vu all over again, as Adeline Gray awaits the winner of the Challenge Tournament in the best-of-three finals.
Gray, a 10-time World/Olympic medalist, and arguably the greatest women’s wrestler in U.S. history, represents both a massive physical and mental hurdle for whomever emerges to face her for the 76kg spot.
That said, now 33-years-old and having given birth to twins since the Tokyo Games in 2021, Gray has shown some signs of slowing down, taking losses on both the domestic and international scenes in recent years that would’ve been unheard of for much of her career prior.
I don’t feel good about making this prediction due to Gray’s unparalleled credentials, not to mention what remains her capacity to beat the very best wrestlers in the world, but I’m going to go out on a limb a do it anyway:
Kylie Welker not only navigates a treacherous Challenge Tournament path but takes out Gray in a three-match slugfest in the finals to make both her own first-ever Olympic team, as well as the first for any Hawkeye in the nascent history of the women’s program.
Top Hawkeye Finisher – Kylie Welker, 1st place
68 kilograms – Women’s Freestyle
The next highest seeded Hawkeye in the women’s field – and thus, perhaps not a surprise as the next one on this rundown – is last weekend’s Under-20 World team trials champion at 65 kilograms, Reese Larramendy.
Another weight (65kg) that isn’t contested at the Olympics, Larramendy will move up to 68kg instead, joining a bracket that may not necessarily be the deepest at the Trials thanks to the looming favorite who awaits in the best-of-three finals (more on that in a bit).
Combine that with the fact that the Iowa redshirt freshman has been on an absolute heater since the New Year, and I like her odds as much, if not more than any of the Hawkeyes yet to be mentioned of making a deep run this weekend.
So far in 2024, Larramendy has wins over the newest NAIA national champion at 143 pounds (12-4), as well as three wins over back-to-back U20 World team trials runner up (and teammate) Ella Schmit by a combined score of 35-7 – including a pair of tech. fall victories last Sunday in Spokane, Washington.
She also pinned Trials’ #4 seed Aine Drury in the NCWWC 143-pound finals, and prior to that bested 2023 US Senior World team member (and fifth-place finisher at the World Championships) Emma Bruntil by decision back at the NCWWC regionals.
I’ll say it again, skill-for-skill I believe Larramendy can compete with just about anyone in America at her weight. The test in State College will be doing it multiple times over 1-2 days against senior-level opponents, not to mention at a weight class 6.5 pounds above where she typically competes.
Her quarterfinal, and likely semifinal foes – #6 Brooklyn Hays and #2 Alexandria Glaude – both current U.S. national teamers, each represent (I think) winnable matches for the 19-year-old. Beyond that, 2021 World bronze medalist and #1 seed Forrest Molinari might be a bridge too far in the Challenge Tournament final.
Somehow get a win there, and you’d better build a few more ‘bridges’ if Reese wants to contend in a best-of-three with 20-year-old Amit Elor – winner of each of the last eight World Championship brackets she has competed in, including back-to-back titles at the senior level.
I think Larramendy wrestles to her seed this weekend, capping off what has been a remarkable start to her 2024.
Top Hawkeye Finisher – Reese Larramendy, 3rd place
53 kilograms – Women’s Freestyle
I couldn’t cover both 68 and 53 kilograms simultaneously, so just know that these two weights are tied in terms of my belief in their likelihood for highest Hawkeye placer.
In fact, I might be having some buyer’s remorse for not putting 53kg first – which is saying a lot, because if you couldn’t tell I really, really like Reese Larramendy.
(Tanner, you did this to yourself you dummy.)
Anyway…
2024 NCWWC finalists (and Iowa teammates) Felicity Taylor and Brianna Gonzalez find themselves seeded sixth and seventh in this fascinating bracket.
The two split their head-to-head matches at NCWWC regionals and the national tournament (with Taylor winning the latter for the 116-pound title).
Taylor, a Spillville, Iowa native, also has prior experience on the senior-level stage, making the 2022 best-of-three World team trials final at the weight.
Top 10
- 1Breaking
DJ Lagway
Florida QB to return vs. LSU
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Dylan Raiola injury
Nebraska QB will play vs. USC
- 3
Elko pokes at Kiffin
A&M coach jokes over kick times
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SEC changes course
Alcohol sales at SEC Championship Game
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Bryce Underwood
Michigan prepared to offer No. 1 recruit $10.5M over 4 years
Meanwhile, Gonzalez has stormed through impressive fields on back-to-back weekends at both the Last Chance Qualifier and U20 trials, earning tech. falls or pins in seven of her eight victories (the lone exception being a 9-0 decision).
I like her to win her opening match against #10 seed Juliana Diaz, which would leave the two Hawkeyes with quarterfinal bouts versus #2 Katie Gomez (Gonzalez) and #3 Haley Augello (Taylor) respectively.
Augello, a 2016 Olympian at 48kg, recently returned to competition after an extended layoff, while Gomez, a four-time age-level World teamer (and 2023 World team trials finalist), poses a serious challenge of her own.
If one of Taylor/Gonzalez can get through that mini four-person bracket – possibly facing off against one another in the semi – they would likely see last year’s 55-kilogram World silver medalist (and 2019 World champion) Jacarra Winchester in the ‘second semifinal.’
Winchester gets a bye until that point thanks to her 2023 medal at a non-Olympic weight, but major questions exist as to her viability at 53kg, where she hasn’t competed since the 2021 Olympics, and especially given her most recent domestic competition came all the way up at 62 kilograms.
In my estimation, that top side of this bracket is far weaker than the bottom, so if either Taylor/Gonzalez should manage to navigate their side of things the subsequent Challenge Tournament ‘final’ would in all honesty figure to be a step down in competition (relatively speaking).
Through it all, 2022 World champion Dominique Parrish awaits in the best-of-three finals. Parrish swept Taylor in a similar spot two years ago prior to winning the World title, but after winning the spot again in 2023 (over Katie Gomez) her performance at Worlds was a disappointing 0-1.
Just some food for thought if either Hawkeye were to make it that far; but given the wealth of talent (and credentials) at the bottom of this bracket I can’t in good conscience predict one of them to get out unscathed.
Top Hawkeye Finisher – Felicity Taylor, 4th place
50 kilograms – Women’s Freestyle
We’re now at the point where I’d consider a deep run from any of the remaining Hawkeyes I’m about to discuss to be fairly implausible.
That being the case, let’s make it a numbers game and go with 50 kilograms on the women’s side next – where a trio of entrants give Iowa more bites at the proverbial ‘apple.’
Unfortunately for #8 Ava Bayless, #9 Nyla Valencia and #10 Emilie Gonzalez some ‘curious’ reseeding by USA Wrestling after the initial reveal of the bracket has made things all the more difficult.
Had it shaken out differently, particularly on the bottom half of the bracket, I could’ve foreseen one of them making a run to the Challenge Tournament final.
But as it stands Bayless and Valencia will hit right away on the topside, while Gonzalez – a 101-pound NCWWC champion who just finished seventh last weekend at 50kg at the U20 trials – is going to be at a size disadvantage against every opponent she faces, starting with 2024 NAIA national champion Palumbo in round one.
Given that context, it’s hard to see Gonzalez navigating multiple rounds against a slew of bigger collegiate stalwarts who also happened to finish first (#2 Mortimer), second (#3 Chavez), third (#6 Ryan) and fifth (#7 Palumbo) at Senior Nationals back in December.
Meanwhile, the winner of Bayless/Valencia will get #1 seed Audrey Jimenez in the quarters.
Jimenez, a high school phenom, made the best-of-three finals a year ago for the Senior World team and swept Valencia in the 2023 U20 finals as well.
Bayless is your 2024 NCWWC champion at 109 pounds, and Valencia has looked much like her old self over the past two weekends upon making her long-awaited return from a torn ACL.
I’d give them a real shot – particularly Valencia – against pretty much everyone in this bracket sans Jimenez and five-time Senior World medalist Sarah Hildebrandt, who awaits in the best-of-three final.
Bayless/Valencia aside, hopefully the Iowa women at 50kg don’t meet too often throughout the weekend, so we can get a better gauge on where they stand against competition they don’t go against in the practice room every single day.
Top Hawkeye Finisher – Nyla Valencia, 5th place
97 kilograms – Men’s Freestyle
Unless I’m missing something former Iowa heavyweight Tony Cassioppi (competing at 97kg) and his sister Rose (76kg) make up the lone brother-sister qualifying duo at this year’s Olympic Trials, and quite possibly the first one ever in the history of the event.
(Don’t quote me on that.)
The siblings also punched their tickets to this weekend in identical fashion – with fifth place finishes back at Senior Nationals in mid-December. Not only that, but they nearly earned the exact same seed this weekend as well, finding themselves on opposite sides of the 8/9 match-up.
Of course, either of those seeds means a first-round victory – which I think Tony will get against Last Chance Qualifier Christian Carroll – earns you a quarterfinal bout against somebody really good.
In this case, that would be six-time World/Olympic medalist J’den Cox.
Oh yeah, there’s also the matter of nine-timer Kyle Snyder awaiting Cox, or whomever else, in the best-of-three finals.
(Oof.)
A presumed loss in the quarters would drop Cassioppi to the consolations, where there are simply no easy outs in a tournament of this caliber.
I will be curious to see how the four-time All-American looks in his second ever senior event down at 97kg, which the increasingly svelte Illinois native now occupies.
Top Hawkeye Finisher – Tony Cassioppi, 7th place
74 kilograms – Men’s Freestyle
The thirteenth and final Hawkeye we’ll cover is one of the rare four-time Big Ten champions in conference history and has been a major fan favorite ever since stepping onto campus in Iowa City.
It’s ‘The Bull.’
Alex Marinelli, currently the #8 seed at 74kg, faces perhaps the most daunting field that exists at this weekend’s Trials.
At present, I count six different World and/or NCAA champions in the bracket. Throw in another three age-level World champions and there’s firepower of all ages everywhere you look – including two of the very best wrestlers in U.S. history, Jordan Burroughs and Kyle Dake.
Now, USA Wrestling has yet to post an updated bracket following the announcement that #3 seed Keegan O’Toole will miss the Trials due to injury, so take the following with a grain of salt:
Regardless of how things ultimately shake out, a victory in round one probably sets Marinelli up with either #1 Burroughs or #2 Nolf – the latter of whom may very well have a couple of World/Olympic medals to his name if not for the likes of Burroughs/Dake dominating this weight for the past decade-and-a-half.
Lose there and it’ll be a consolation route littered with young, dangerous foes for The Bull to navigate.
Have I mentioned what a brutal tournament this is?
Top Hawkeye Finisher – Alex Marinelli, 8th place
Short time
Well, there you have it – your exhaustive look-ahead at the 2024 U.S. Olympic Team Trials.
(I feel pretty good actually, so maybe ‘exhaustive’ isn’t the best word to describe it. Unless of course you’re beat from all the scrolling just to get through the damn thing, in which case, ‘exhaustive’ might work after all.)
13 Hawkeyes. 13 dreams. That’s probably the best way to sell this thing to Iowa wrestling fans (if I even have to).
This weekend represents the opportunity of a lifetime for each of these athletes who are currently, and/or have previously donned the iconic Black & Gold singlet.
And whether their pursuit ultimately ends in success come Saturday evening or not, these are still your Hawkeyes.
So, if these loaded fields of elite competitors, this once-every-four-years pressure-packed stage and the essence of the ‘Olympic Dream’ itself somehow doesn’t do it for you, then let it be enough that these are still your Hawkeyes.
Cheer on the victories. Anguish in the defeats. But tune in regardless for the test of physical/emotional mettle that I’m not sure most of us on the outside of it all can quite truly fathom.
These are remarkable individuals, one and all.
How spoiled are we to get this opportunity to watch them compete?
