Kennedy Blades and the potential path to Olympic Gold
On Wednesday morning I published an article of this very sort about Spencer Lee.
48 hours later it’s time for another – this one an interesting dichotomy to the first.
On the one hand, Lee is an athlete who has already completed what turned out to be a stellar six-year career in the iconic Black & Gold singlet. He walked into Iowa City with sterling prep credentials to his name and immediately transitioned from that foundation into incredible dominance on the collegiate scene.
On the other hand, Kennedy Blades is an athlete who has yet to go through a single practice, much less official competition as a wrestler at the University of Iowa. In fact, it took two years post-high school for the 20-year-old to ultimately find her way to Iowa City.
And yet, she’ll arrive in a few weeks with a similarly impressive list of past accomplishments to her name – not to mention future expectations – as Lee did roughly seven years ago.
Two different Hawkeyes, five years apart in age, both stepping onto campus shouldering not only their own immense hopes and dreams, but those of an entire Iowa fanbase as well.
Oh yeah, both also happen to be 2024 Olympians on Team USA.
And much like Lee, there’s a very real chance that Blades leaves Paris with not only a medal, but quite possibly a gold one at that.
The significance of this Hawkeye ‘debut’
As I’ve mentioned already, Blades’ association with Iowa wrestling has yet to take on much of its eventual form due largely to the incredibly recent nature of the relationship.
Heck, the virtual ‘ink’ may not even be dry on her barely two-week-old commitment:
All of this is to say that the Chicago native’s (significant) on-the-mat impact as a Hawkeye won’t truly be felt until the months and years down the road – starting with the upcoming 2024-25 season.
However, what can’t be overstated is the effect that her mere presence on the Olympic stage figures to immediately have on the ever-surging prominence of the women’s program.
I would be stunned if at some point on the broadcast of one of Blades’ matches and/or highlights it wasn’t mentioned that she’s a member of the Hawkeyes.
Just how much that could further multiply the program’s ability to attract not only talented athletes, but audience eyeballs is anyone’s guess. Regardless, it wouldn’t shock me in the least to learn sometime down the road that the exposure wound up paying serious dividends for Coach Chun & Company in some form or another.
It feels a bit odd to suggest that a college athlete’s biggest contribution to a program might occur before they ever compete for that program – especially when that athlete is likely to achieve incredible things on the collegiate scene.
But in the case of Kennedy Blades, it might actually be true.
Why she can win
Blades can win a gold medal because she’s one of the most dynamic, physically gifted wrestlers in the world and she has the technical skillset to back it up.
In part, because of that – as well as her status/popularity as an American athlete – she is the current betting favorite (+150) according to DraftKings.
That doesn’t mean everything, of course. But as I detailed in my preview of the field at 76 kilograms this is a weight class deep with both young and veteran talent, as well as competitors who’ve won titles and/or medals on the World and Olympic stage.
Blades fits right in among them, which is hardly a surprise given the anticipation that has surrounded her career ever since she reached the US Olympic Trials final as a 17-year-old back in 2021 – losing in somewhat shockingly respectable fashion to eventual Olympic gold medalist Tamyra Mensah-Stock.
Now a whopping 20 years of age, Blades enters these Olympics having earned her spot on Team USA via a best-of-three sweep at April’s Trials over the single-most credentialed woman in US wrestling history.
Adeline Gray is both the reigning Olympic silver medalist and a six-time World champion, with double-digit World/Olympic medals (10) hanging in her trophy case.
Performances like that, among others, have demonstrated that when Blades wrestles at her very best she’s as good or better than any woman in the world at 76 kilograms.
Schedule/TV information (August 10-11) *all times Central Daylight Time*
If you weren’t already aware, competition for Blades will begin early Saturday morning (August 10th).
As of now, ‘Session I’ is set for a 4:00 a.m. (CDT) start, with the 76-kilogram weight class for Women’s Freestyle – including Blades – getting underway 30 minutes later (4:30 a.m.).
An opening victory would advance her to the quarterfinals, which would commence roughly 80 minutes after that at 5:50 a.m.
Win again and the Hawkeye would have a break until the semifinals – set for 11:55 a.m.
In the event that Blades should start her Olympic run 3-0 she would then have a little more than 18 hours to gear up for the gold medal match early Sunday morning (August 11th) at 6:45 a.m.
However, in the unenviable scenario that she takes a loss on Saturday, Blades would need the opponent who defeated her to reach the Olympic final in order to have a shot to wrestle back for bronze.
This system – known as ‘repechage’ – is the international wrestling version of consolations.
You can read a more in-depth explainer on repechage right here, but the bare bones of it is that all of the losers to one particular finalist (three in the case of the Olympics) wrestle a single-elimination ‘mini-bracket’ amongst themselves in order to determine a bronze medalist – while an identical situation plays out on the other half of the bracket.
(Two bronze medals are awarded in international wrestling.)
All repechage matches for Women’s Freestyle at 76 kilograms will take place in the early hours of Sunday morning – the first, at 4:20 a.m. between losers from Round 1 and the quarterfinals – and the second (for bronze), between the winner of that match and the semifinal loser from the day before.
(Bronze medal matches will be held back-to-back at 6:20 and 6:30 a.m. – immediately preceding the gold medal match at 6:45.)
As for watching the action, the only place you can assuredly catch everything live is on Peacock.
There will likely be replays shown later each day on television (USA Network), but your best bet to see it all is Peacock – a pain in the rear to some, I realize, but still far better than the alternatives of the past (if any even existed for Olympic wrestling).
The entire schedule can also be found here for your browsing pleasure.
The Draw
About an hour ago the draw for 76 kilograms was finally released for this weekend’s competition:
One of eight ‘unseeded’ wrestlers in the field – more about that process here – Blades wound up drawing the equivalent of a #13 seed.
At first glance, I think it sets up better than not for the young American.
All three past World champions wound up on the opposite half of the bracket, as well as a pair of other 2023 World medalists.
Meanwhile, Blades’ first round foe – #4 Catalina Axente (Romania) – ‘only’ has a career-best finish of fifth at the Senior World Championships (2023), not to mention zero previous Olympic experience herself.
Things could get tricker in the quarterfinals, however, as a potential bout with #5 Milaimys Marin Potrille (Cuba) could await.
The young Cuban – a 2019 U20 and U23 World champion (also 5th at 2023 Senior Worlds) – faced off against Blades just a few weeks ago in Madrid at the Grand Prix of Spain and won in unexpectedly decisive 13-4 fashion.
I don’t think Blades was anywhere near her sharpest form in that meeting and can absolutely flip the script in a potential rematch. That said, it certainly won’t be easy.
The other good/bad news of the draw is that three of the four possible semifinal foes for Blades are wrestlers she already has history with.
Both unseeded Juan Wang (China) and Reetika Reetika (India) have wins over the American in the past 18 months – though Blades has split a pair of matches with the former.
But while that development may be less-than-ideal, she also has a 12-1 tech. fall victory on her ledger from 2023 over the favorite to emerge from that portion of the bracket – #1 seed Aiperi Medet Kyzy (Kyrgyzstan).
Were those two to meet up with a spot in the gold medal match on the line you’d have to feel pretty good about Blades’ chances.
The Pick
It sure feels like 76 kilograms is one of the more wide-open fields at these Olympics in terms of the number of athletes who could conceivably win gold.
As I mentioned earlier, I believe Kennedy Blades is absolutely one of them.
After some serious waffling back forth, I’ll take the soon-to-be Hawkeye to bring a silver medal back to Iowa City – losing in the final to whomever emerges from the loaded bottom half of this bracket (perhaps Japan’s reigning World champion Yuka Kagami).
I’ll happily eat my words (and those waffles I just mentioned) if she’s standing atop the podium on Sunday, but that’s my best guess before the action gets underway tomorrow morning.
And who knows?
Maybe a few days from now we’ll be talking about a pair of Hawkeye Olympic champions.
I’m sure Iowa fans wouldn’t mind that one bit…
