NCAA Bracketology: Can Iowa WBB get a one seed?

Sunday afternoon, the final horn sounded and the confetti rained down at the Target Center, as the Hawkeyes celebrated their second Big Ten Tournament Championship in as many seasons. Their focus now turns to the NCAA Tournament. Selection Sunday is on the horizon and the Hawkeyes are looking forward to hosting another regional at Carver-Hawkeye Arena.

As of the last selection committee top 16 reveal on February 23rd, Iowa fell to #9 and were projected to be a three seed. Since then, the Hawkeyes have defeated #2 Indiana, Purdue, #5 Maryland and #14 Ohio State. They will enter the NCAA Tournament with a 26-6 record, a 15-3 record in Big Ten play and a Big Ten Tournament Title.

With that, lets take a dive into where Lisa Bluder’s squad may be seeded in the NCAA Tournament.

WHAT THE BRACKETOLOGY SITES ARE SAYING ABOUT IOWA

ESPN – 2 Seed – Charlie Creme has the Hawkeyes as a two seed in the Seattle Region, paired with one seed Stanford. He has Iowa facing 15 seed Saint Louis in the first round, with a matchup against seven seed Florida State or ten seed Kansas in the second round. A potential matchup with Duke looms in the Sweet 16.

CBS – 1 Seed – Connor Groel has the Hawkeyes as a one seed in his latest projection. Instead of filling out an entire bracket, he just lists the teams at each seed which means no projected matchups. Baylor and Gonzaga headline his eight seed line, while the nine seed line includes Ole Miss and Miami FL.

Just Women’s Sports – 2 Seed – Eden Laase projects the Hawkeyes as a two seed in her latest projection. She also just listed the teams at each seed line, which means no projected matchups. Gonzaga and Creighton headline her seven seed line, while the ten seed line includes Columbia and Middle Tennessee.

College Sports Madness – 2 Seed – A lesser known site, but still good to get a variety projections. They have the Hawkeyes getting a two seed and facing off against 15 seed Towson in the first round. The seven/ten seed matchup is Arizona and Mississippi State, which is pretty scary. The one seed in the projected region is Indiana.

THE BATTLE FOR A ONE SEED

Locked In one seeds: South Carolina (32-0) and Indiana (27-3)

The Gamecocks and Hoosiers are locked as one seeds and almost certainly will be the top two teams in the field of 68. Although Indiana dropped two games this past week, they are 20-3 against Q1/2 teams, including an impressive 8-2 record against the NET Top 26.

Probably a one seed: Stanford (28-5)

Stanford, much like Indiana, dropped a couple of games this past week against Utah and UCLA. They still should feel really comfortable about being a one seed. The Cardinal have 13 quad one wins, which is good for third most in the country. They have a 9-3 record against the NET Top 25.

In consideration: Iowa (26-6), Virginia Tech (27-4), Maryland (25-6), Utah (25-4) and Connecticut (29-5)

ASSESSING IOWA’S RESUME

A team’s resume is judged based on the NET rankings and the quad wins structure. Quad 1 wins are the best wins to have, while quad 2 wins are not bad to have either. Quad three or four losses are damaging to a team’s resume. Here is the quad breakdown…

• Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
• Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
• Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
• Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

The Hawkeyes have an 11-6 record in Quad 1 games, which ranks as the fifth most in the country. They are also 6-0 in Quad 2 games, while a good week from Belmont in the MVC Tournament could bump them up to the Quad 2 level. Combining those together, Iowa is 17-6, which is good for sixth most wins in the country.

They have played 11 games against the NET Top 26 and have a 7-4 record in those games. While they don’t have any losses outside of quad one, the loss at Kansas State doesn’t look great, as the Wildcats are not going to be a tournament team. Iowa is 6th in the NET Rankings and 3rd in the Warren Nolan ELO Rankings.

You can check out the Hawkeyes full resume and every other team on the Warren Nolan site.

THE OTHERS IN CONSIDERATION

Virginia Tech (27-4)- The Hokies are the biggest threat to the Hawkeyes chances of a one seed. They have won 11 games in a row, including winning the ACC Tournament. Tech has a 12-4 record against Q1 teams and a 9-0 record against Q2 teams. The combined 21 wins is tied for the second most in the country, while they also have a 10-2 record against NET Top 25 teams. Their one drawback is having the 225th best non-conference schedule. They are at #2 in the Warren Nolan ELO Ranking.

Maryland(25-6)- The Terps were in line for a one seed, until their stay in Minneapolis was cut short by Iowa. They are at #13 in the NET, which is the lowest of the teams getting considered. Maryland has an 11-4 record against Q1 teams, but has a pair of Q2 loss against Nebraska and DePaul that hurt. That is probably enough make them a two seed.

Utah (25-4)- The Utes were also on the one seed line, until they fell to Washington State in the Pac 12 Tournament Quarterfinals. They are 10-4 against Q1 teams and 7-0 against Q2 teams. However, they have faced just seven NET Top 25 teams (5-2), which is the lowest of the five teams being considered. While their four losses are all to ranked teams, their 37th ranked SOS and 210th non-conference schedule hurts their chances.

UConn(29-5)- The Huskies have a rock solid resume. 15-4 against Q1 teams, including an 11-3 record against the NET Top 25. Add in a 7-1 record against Q2 teams and they have a combined 22 wins against those two groups. That leads the country. On the down side, UConn has losses to Marquette and a Q2 loss to St Johns. Their biggest drawback? They didn’t impress in February with an average margin of victory 6.2 points and a 5-2 record. That includes close wins against Georgetown (67-59), DePaul (72-69) and Xavier (60-51). Those teams are a combined 36-57.

FINAL THOUGHT

The Hawkeyes have built a case for a one seed that didn’t seem likely a week ago after they were blown out by 28 points at Maryland. They took down three ranked teams and two projected one seeds en route to a Big Ten Tournament Title. It still might just be a hair short. The early loss at Kansas State could be the decider.

Outside of their poor non-conference schedule, Virginia Tech has a better resume and hasn’t lost since January 26th at Duke. They just avenged that loss in the ACC Title Game. I think the committee goes with the Hokies in the final one seed spot and Iowa in the first two seed spot. The difference between those two spots is marginal, as they would be in the same region.

The NCAA Tournament Selection Show is set for Sunday on ESPN at 7:00pm CT. HawkeyeReport will have full coverage of the Hawkeyes regional announcement.