NCAA Tournament Picture: Iowa WBB a three seed in final selection committee reveal

We are just 16 days from Selection Sunday and the Iowa Women’s Basketball team finding out who will travel to Iowa City for the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. Yes, the Hawkeyes are going to host a regional. We do know that much. However, there is still some question as to what seed line Lisa Bluder’s squad will land at. Iowa has one remaining regular season game on Sunday against #2 Indiana and then it is off to Minneapolis for the Big Ten Tournament. How those games play out will determine where they land when the bracket is unveiled.

Yesterday, we got a look into what the selection committee is thinking, as they released their second top 16 rankings. The rankings depict how teams stand in terms of the top four seeds and what teams are in line to host a regional. The Hawkeyes came in at #9, which means they are the first 3 seed. They sit behind #7 Connecticut and #8 Virginia Tech, who are the last two 2 seeds.

Here is a look at the entire top 16…

If the tournament started today, these would be the top 16 teams in the bracket!#NCAAWBB pic.twitter.com/M5OV1eD0nd

— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessWBB) February 24, 2023

The Case for a Two Seed…

The Hawkeyes were a two seed two weeks ago when the first selection committee top 16 was released, however, the recent blowout loss to Maryland is likely what dropped them down to a three seed. The group of two seeds includes LSU, Maryland, Connecticut and Virginia Tech.

Here is a look at the quad 1/2 resume for final two seed Virginia Tech (right) and top three seed Iowa (left). The Hokies have a better record against quad 1 opponents and have an extra win against quad 2 teams. Both teams are undefeated against quad 3/4 competition.

The Hawkeyes have a bit of work to do with just one regular season game remaining and then the Big Ten Tournament. The difference between #8 and #9 is not huge, as both land in the same region as the overall #1 team. However, the schedule has some opportunities that could allow Iowa to jump into the middle of the two seed line.

The Remaining Slate…

The Hawkeyes have the opportunity to get some revenge and knock off #2 Indiana at Carver-Hawkeye Arena to wrap up the regular season. That would be a huge resume booster. Win or lose, Iowa will have a chance to rack up quad one wins in Minneapolis, as long as there are no huge upsets. If the Hawkeyes get the 2 seed, they will likely get Purdue in the quarterfinals. If they get the 3 seed, they will likely get #25 Illinois. From there, Maryland is the likely semifinal opponent, with a potential round three against Indiana in the Big Ten Tournament Title game. All of those teams mentioned would currently be quad one opportunities.

What does all that mean for Iowa’s NCAA Tournament seeding? A loss to Indiana and a first round exit in Minneapolis would put the Hawkeyes in danger of dropping to a four seed, which means meeting a one seed in the Sweet 16, rather than the Elite Eight. A win Sunday or in the first round of the BTT allows them to almost certainly avoid that fate. On the other hand, a win against the Hoosiers and a couple of wins at the Big Ten Tournament could move Iowa back onto the two seed line.

Dangerous teams that could land in Iowa City…

Last year, we learned that there are some dangerous teams that lurk as second round matchups for two and three seeds. 2 seed Iowa lost to 10 seed Creighton, 2 seed Baylor lost to 10 seed South Dakota and 3 seed LSU lost to 6 seed Ohio State.

This year, there are, once again, plenty of teams that would be very dangerous matchups for the Hawkeyes in the second round. Here is an early look at a couple of the scariest possibilities for a two or three seeded Iowa team.

Louisville (6)– The preseason #7 team in the country is projected six seed right now in the Iowa City regional. The Cardinals have won six of their last seven games and would be an incredibly dangerous matchup if Iowa was a three seed paired with the Hailey Van Lith led squad.

Florida Gulf Coast (11)- The Eagles were a 12 seed last year and took down 5 seed Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. Once again, FGCU is having a good season and will big right in the same area. If they got through a six seed, they would be a tough second round matchup. They were in the Iowa City regional in the last ESPN bracketology update.

Creighton (7)- Nightmare fuel. The once top ten ranked Jays sit at 20-7 overall are a seven seed in the last ESPN projection. Their proximity to Iowa City makes them a candidate to make the trip if they stay on this projected line.

Miami FL (10)- Kind of similar to Crieghton last year. A talented team flying under the radar with a 17-11 record. The Canes have taken down #22 UNC, #9 Virginia Tech and #23 FSU this year.