Previewing the Big Ten in the NCAA Tournament

It has been a wild season across the country for women’s basketball and the NCAA Tournament is expected to be one the best in recent memory. In the Big Ten, Ohio State secured the regular season title, but was upended by Maryland in the Big Ten Tournament. Meanwhile, the Iowa Hawkeyes won a third consecutive tournament championship.

Notably, seven Big Ten teams earned spots to the NCAA Tournament, placing the conference second only to the ACC and SEC (which each have 8 bids). Over the past five years, the Big Ten has received the third-highest number of bids (33) to the tournament.

As March unfolds, fans eagerly anticipate filling out their brackets. So we will do the same. Let’s delve into each Big Ten team’s potential journey in the Big Dance, analyzing how far they might go.

1 Seed Iowa Hawkeyes – Albany 2 Region

First Round Matchup – vs 16 Holy Cross/UT-Martin (Saturday, 2:00pm)

Best Case Scenario – How about back-to-back Final Four’s for Lisa Bluder and Co.? Inserting Syd Affolter into the starting lineup gives the Hawkeyes a different look and they play their best basketball of the season. They make things look easy in the Iowa City Regional, setting up a rematch of last year’s Sweet 16 with Colorado. A Buffs team that lost six of eight down the stretch only has one big win in them (over KSU) and the Hawkeyes head to the Elite Eight against UCLA. A Caitlin Clark 40-point night propels Iowa to the Final Four in Cleveland.

Worst Case Scenario – A nightmare scenario for Hawkeye fans. After taking down Holy Cross in the first round, Iowa faces a Princeton team in the second round that loves to play games in the 60’s and 70’s. In a slower paced game, Caitlin Clark and Co. try too hard to speed things up causing forced shots, as well as some turnovers. The Hawkeyes are stunned by the Tigers in a game that is eerily similar to their loss at Carver earlier in the year to Kansas State.

2 Seed Ohio State Buckeyes – Portland 3 Region

First Round Matchup – vs 15 Maine (Friday, 11:00am)

Best Case Scenario – The Buckeyes have all the pieces of a Final Four team. Top 25 offense, top 50 defense, top 15 field goal percentage, top 60 in fewest turnovers and top 10 in forced turnovers. After losing their last two games of the year, Ohio State gets back to being the team that won 15 games in a row in Big Ten play. They roll through the first two rounds and take down UConn for the second straight year behind a spirited effort from Cotie McMahon. In the Elite Eight, the Buckeyes face USC in a rematch of the season opener. This time, OSU keeps JuJu Watkins relatively quite offensively and they get their revenge in the biggest game of the year. Ohio State goes to the Final Four in their home state.

Worst Case Scenario – Ohio State takes care of business in their first two games, but run into the trouble in the Sweet 16 against UConn. The Huskies remember getting knocked out by OSU last season and this time, they cut the NCAA Tournament run for the Buckeyes short. Kevin McGuff and Co. are left wondering what things could have looked like if they got that one seed they were projected to have just a couple weeks ago.

4 Seed Indiana Hoosiers – Albany 1 Region

First Round Matchup – vs 13 Fairfield (Saturday, 12:30pm)

Best Case Scenario – The injury concerns that arose late in the year aren’t a factor. Holmes is good to go, Meister is good to go and Parrish is at 100%. That leads to an impressive win in the opener against Fairfield. The loss to Miami FL on their home floor last season sticks with the veterans on the team and they don’t let it happen against Oklahoma. Mackenzie Holmes puts up 20+ points for the 19th time, while Sara Scalia and Sydney Parrish each knock down a few threes in a win over the Sooners. In the Sweet 16, Indiana puts up a valiant effort, but falls to South Carolina.

Worst Case Scenario – The Hoosiers get past Fairfield in the first round, but they run into Big 12 regular season champion Oklahoma in the second round. Co-Big 12 POY F Skylar Vann and G Payton Verhulst combine for 35 points, while the Sooners pesky defense (67.7 ppg in Big 12 play) causes trouble for Indiana. For the second straight season, the Hoosiers season ends on their home floor, short of the Sweet 16.

6 Seed Nebraska Cornhuskers – Albany 1 Region

First Round Matchup – vs 11 Texas A&M (Friday, 9:30pm)

Best Case Scenario – The Nebraska that we saw late in the season is the Nebraska team that shows up in the NCAA Tournament. Jaz Shelley and Alexis Markowski continue to be the main scorers, while Natalie Potts, Callin Hake and Logan Nissely give consistent contributions. The Huskers comfortably take down A&M in the first round and then upset Oregon State to advance to the Sweet 16. Nebraska benefits from Ole Miss knocking off Notre Dame and the Huskers take down the Rebels to reach the program’s first ever Elite Eight. There, the runs ends with a loss to South Carolina.

Worst Case Scenario – After winning eight of their last 11 games, including a run to the Big Ten Tournament championship game, the week off proves to have adverse effects on the Huskers momentum. Point guard Jaz Shelley sizzled through the last six games of the year, knocking down 23 threes, but she struggles from long distance against the Aggies. Freshman Natalie Potts experiences some bumps in her first NCAA Tournament game and Alexis Markowski is forced to shoulder the load. Texas A&M benefits from having both G Endyia Rogers and F Janiah Barker in the lineup (17-6 with, 2-6 without) and they upset Nebraska in the first round. A promising run late in the year finishes with a bad ending.

9 Seed Michigan State Spartans – Albany 1 Region

First Round Matchup – vs 8 North Carolina (Friday, 10:30am)

Best Case Scenario – The Spartans went 0-7 against top eight tournament seeds during the regular season, with four of those losses coming by single digits. In her first year as head coach at MSU, Robyn Fralick breaks through with a win over North Carolina in the first round. The biggest surprise player in the Big Ten, Julia Ayrault puts up 20+ points for the sixth time this season and the most balanced scoring team in the conference gets the job done. However, the reward is #1 overall seed South Carolina. The Spartans season ends there.

Worst Case Scenario – Coach Fralick got MSU to the tournament, but they come up short in the opening round. North Carolina has been up and down all season, but unfortunately for the Spartans, the Tar Heel team that beat Oklahoma, Louisville, NC State and took to South Carolina to the wire shows up in Columbia. Michigan State plays a good game, but just gets beat by a UNC team that looks like they could have been a five or a six seed.

9 Seed Michigan Wolverines – Portland 3 Region

First Round Matchup – vs 8 Kansas (Saturday, 1:00pm)

Best Case Scenario – The matchup against Kansas (215th pace) plays right into the hands of a Michigan team that doesn’t like the play super fast (192nd). They take advantage of the Jayhawks sub 235th rebounding rate and knock down some second chance shots. The Wolverines extend their streak to seven straight tournaments with at least one win, but their fun is cut short by JuJu Watkins and USC in the second round.

Worst Case Scenario – The version of the Wolverines has struggled to shoot it at times this season shows up in Los Angeles. They shoot under 40% from the floor for the tenth time this season, while top three-point shooter Lauren Hansen can never get going. The Jayhawks, who have won nine of their last 11 games, continue their string of good play, while Michigan doesn’t have an answer for 6’6 Taiyanna Jackson in the post. The Wolverines end their season in the first weekend for the second straight season.

10 Seed Maryland Terrapins – Portland 4 Region

First Round Matchup – vs 7 Iowa State (Friday, 6:30pm)

Best Case Scenario – Maryland takes the momentum built late in the year, winning seven of their last nine, and makes a run that may have never happened had they not knocked off Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament. Shyanne Sellers, Jakia Brown-Turner and Bri McDaniel lead the way, with each scoring 20+ points in a different game. The Terps defeat an Iowa State team, in the first round, that is a year away from making a run of their own to advance to face regional host Stanford. The scoring struggles (70.3 ppg last ten) continue for the Cardinal and Maryland shocks Stanford, sending them home in the second round for the second straight year. They tack on a win over a Tennessee team that benefited from NC State going down in the first round, before finally falling to Texas in the Elite Eight.

Worst Case Scenario – The Terrapins make an early exit in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 18 appearances. Their opening-round matchup against Iowa State proves to be too much. Despite their best efforts, Maryland struggles to contain Audi Crooks in the paint and she goes for over 20 points. The Terps rebounding, which had improved late in the season, regresses to midseason levels against a formidable top 15 rebounding team. Despite Iowa State’s youth, they show they are ready to win in the tournament now.