Scouting Missouri State, how far can the Hawkeyes go in the NCAA Tournament?

It’s NCAA Tournament time in Iowa City. This evening, the three seed Iowa Women’s Soccer team will open the tournament with a matchup against the Missouri State Bears. The Hawkeyes earned an at-large bid to the tournament with a 13-3-3 record, including a third-place finish in the Big Ten standings. It’s the fifth NCAA Tournament appearance in program history and the second consecutive season that Iowa will host a tournament game.

“Anyone that makes it to this level is obviously deserving of being here. We also know that ranking and seeding really doesn’t matter when it comes down to it,” said senior goalkeeper Macy Enneking. “This is a (Missouri State) team that deserves all the respect we have. With that being said, we still want to come out on the forefront and crush them early.”

Scouting the Missouri Valley Champion Missouri State Bears

Missouri State will be making their fourth appearance in the NCAA Tournament and are led by third-year head coach Kirk Nelson. The Bears enter the tournament with a 13-4-3 record, earning the auto bid for the Missouri Valley, with a 4-0 shutout win over Drake in the MVC Tournament Championship.

“Missouri State is a good team. When you’re a (conference) champion, you know how to win, and they’ve done that for a couple of years now, but I like our team, I like the matchup,” said head coach Dave Dilanni.

They became just the third team in MVC history to sweep the conferences postseason awards, with Julia Kristensen (POY), Jenna Anderson (DPOY), Camielle Day (GKOY) and Jane Hansen (FrPOY) all getting honored.

“They’re driven by their front four players. They’ve got a couple of forwards that have some pretty good numbers in terms of statistics,” said Dilanni. “They’re athletic at the back, organized. They play with a real collaboration and spirit, and they fight.”

The Bears, like Coach Dilanni said, are led by their front four. Forward Julia Kristensen led the MVC in goals (8), assists (13) and points (29), while forward Grace O’Keefe (7 gls, 5 ast) was second in the MVC in points (19) and first in shots on goal per game (1.55). They are the two players that the Hawkeye defense will have to key in on. In the midfield, Kaeli Benedict (5 gls, 6 ast) and Reilly Herman (4 gls, 1 ast) round out the strong MSU front four. Kristensen, O’Keefe, Benedict and Herman have combined for 75% of the teams’ goals, 67.6% of assists and 52.4% of shots on goal.

Defensively, the Bears have MVC Defensive Player of the Year Jenna Anderson and MVC Freshman of the Year Jane Hansen. They spearhead an MSU defense that has not allowed a goal in their last 461 minutes (5+ games) and ranked first in the MVC in goals allowed per game in conference play (0.50). In goal, MVC Goalkeeper of the Year Camielle Day saved 60 of 78 (.769) shots faced this season.

“We’re going to have to break them. Getting an early lead will be important to have them come out and open up a little bit more. I think, once that happens, the opportunity for us to score a bit more will be present for us.”

“I want them to play loose, be confident and I want them to be aggressive, especially early on. I’m okay with them being a bit more direct with their play to see if we can get something quickly.”

How far can the Hawkeyes go?…

Not only can this team break through to the Round of 16 for the first time in program history, but they are capable of going even further. Defensively, Iowa is one of the best in the country, allowing just .520 goals per game. They are also one of the most physical teams in the country, ranking seventh in fouls per game (12.68). While that can be viewed as a bad thing, the Hawkeyes are not only able to throw opponents off with their physicality, but they can also lockdown, stay organized and defend as well as anyone.

The other statistic that stands out to me is how Iowa has fared against the top-level opponents that they have played. The Hawkeyes are 3-0-2 against the RPI Top 25, including wins over two seed Wake Forest and 4 seed Penn State. If they advance to the second round, a defensive-minded Georgetown (RPI 19) would be the likely opponent, and they fall into the bucket of teams that Iowa has fared very well against.

Ultimately, if the Hawkeyes are able to create scoring chances and net goals, they will be very hard to beat, no matter the opponent. Iowa ranks 28th in the country in shots on goal per game (7.79) and 30th in shot accuracy (51.4%) but are 67th in the country in goals per game (1.84). When you get into the NCAA Tournament, the margins are slim, so the Hawkeyes will have to make the most of the dangerous chances. The good news is that they have more depth to their attack than years past, with four players totaling at least five goals.

Final Thought

Once the NCAA Tournament begins, all bets are off, and nothing is guaranteed. That being said, I expect the Hawkeyes to take care of business and win by a couple of goals tonight against Missouri State. The Bears best regular season win came against Central Arkansas (RPI 140), while they are 1-4 against the RPI Top 150, allowing 3.2 goals per game in those five matches. Iowa is easily their toughest opponent of the season. IOWA 3 MISSOURI STATE 0