The Big One: Penn State awaits Iowa wrestling in 1-vs-2 showdown

As I sit down to type this latest Iowa wrestling preview I’m struck by a somewhat humbling, if obvious notion:

This might be the week my services are ‘needed’ least all season long.

I mean seriously, it’s time for Iowa versus Penn State. What more really needs to be said than that?

On Friday night at the Bryce Jordan Center, a hostile, capacity road crowd will greet the #2 Hawkeyes (9-0, 3-0 B1G) as they take on the #1 Nittany Lions (9-0, 3-0 B1G) in the latest installment of the biggest dual in men’s college wrestling.

Just one other program (Ohio State, 2015) has won a national team title besides these two powerhouses since 2008.

And in addition to that 2015 title by the Buckeyes, only a two-year run by Iowa (champs in 2021, prohibitive favorites in COVID-cancelled 2020) has broken up Penn State’s run of dominance.

Cael Sanderson & Co. ripped off four-consecutive titles from 2011-14 and 2016-19. Now, they’re looking to do it again (2022-pres.) with arguably their best team yet.

So yeah, the task it tall for the Hawkeyes on Friday.

Fortunately, signs point toward a full-strength Black & Gold lineup being available to take on the challenge.

That’s been in some question since Drake Ayala’s unexpected absence against Ohio State. But the junior is the only 133-pounder listed on the probable lineup, and Tom Brands indicated last Saturday that he anticipates getting the NCAA finalist back for this weekend.

One thing’s for sure; Iowa is going to need him.

But enough of the preamble. Let’s dive headfirst into this latest colossal clash between wrestling titans.

Then, if there’s enough time left over (I’ll spare some) we’ll peek at Iowa’s other dual this weekend – a Sunday matinee at #25 Maryland.

Tale of the tape – Iowa/PSU

#2 Iowa has five wrestlers in its lineup currently ranked third or higher at their respective weight classes:

#3 Drake Ayala (133), #2 Kyle Parco (149), #1 Jacori Teemer (157), #2 Michael Caliendo (165) and Stephen Buchanan (197).

The Hawkeyes also have a trio of other highly ranked wrestlers – #6 Patrick Kennedy (174), #5 Gabe Arnold (184) and #11 Ben Kueter (285).

And they round things out with #26 Joey Cruz (125) and Ryder Block (141).

By all measures, this is an excellent Iowa team – its best since the 2021 national championship group.

The problem is (at least on paper), Penn State is even better.

While one can poke (relative) ‘holes’ in Iowa at 125/141 – ‘holes’ most teams would kill to have – the Nittany Lions seemingly have none of their own.

The current ‘low men’ on the totem pole for PSU are two seventh-ranked lightweights.

And between them, Braeden Davis (133) was a 2024 Big Ten champion while Luke Lilledahl finished his high school career as arguably the top-ranked prospect in America.

Tack on another youngster – undefeated #4 Josh Barr (197) – and those are the least proven members of Penn State’s lineup.

The other seven all have (at minimum) a third-place NCAA finish under their belt(s) already.

Distilled even further, that group has made 10 NCAA finals appearances, winning a half-dozen individual titles – headlined by four-time champion Carter Starocci.

Remember when I said Friday will be a tall task for the Hawkeyes?

To give some additional context as to how these two teams have arrived at this moment, I’ve put together a table showcasing the accolades/recruiting rankings of each projected starter before they’d ever wrestled a college match:

*all rankings per FloWrestling

Is there an (improbable) path to victory?

I just want to reemphasize that this is a damn good Iowa wrestling team.

Why do I say that? Because I feel like it could go lost on some folks amidst the somewhat bleak picture I’m painting of the Hawkeyes’ odds on Friday night.

At present, Iowa projects to score almost 40 more team points at NCAAs this season than it did a year ago (106.5 to 67) – a projection that doesn’t even include bonus points.  

In two months in Philadelphia, it’s conceivable the Hawkeyes could top their 2021 title-winning team total.

And that still more than likely wouldn’t be enough to overtake Penn State.

But hey, that’s why they wrestle the matches.

Also, NCAA Championship team scoring doesn’t translate one-to-one to a dual setting. So, while Friday night remains a daunting task for Iowa, it’s quite different from the one they’ll face in March.

Look, I’m not saying the Hawkeyes will pull off the massive upset (and it would be massive.) But if they were going to ‘steal’ a win in Happy Valley, how might it look?

And not that the Iowa program or its fans need any more reason to want to knock off the Nittany Lions, but if you’ll allow me to channel my inner Danny Ocean for a moment:

Because Penn State always wins. Wrestle long enough, you never change the stakes, Penn State beats you. Unless, when that perfect dual comes along, you bet big and then you take down Penn State.

Must-haves

For Iowa to pull the upset, it all starts with winning its three favored matchups.

That makes each of 133, 157 and 197 pounds must-haves on Friday. And that’s also why #2 Drake Ayala’s availability against #7 Braeden Davis is so critical to any hope of success.

Last year, Ayala and Davis – then at 125 – wrestled a 4-2 match at Carver-Hawkeye Arena.

An early slide-by takedown for the Hawkeye was the only offensive score in an otherwise uneventful match.

Regardless of the aesthetics, Iowa needs a similar outcome this go around.

Minus the familiarity, holding serve is paramount at 157 as well.

A top-three matchup awaits between #1 Jacori Teemer and #3 Tyler Kasak – in which Teemer needs to come through (again) just after returning from a nine-week injury absence.

How’s his fitness against a hard charger like Kasak, and in a hostile road environment no less? Can he explode for a takedown or two to keep the undefeated Nittany Lion at bay?

The Arizona State graduate transfer exuded nothing but calm and confidence when speaking with local media this week.

Another grad transfer with a hungry, young Penn Stater in his path is top-ranked 197-pounder Stephen Buchanan.

I think Buchanan (13-0) has been Iowa’s top performer all season long. He’ll match wits with #4 Josh Barr – who continues to make waves as a redshirt freshman.

The latest feather in Barr’s cap? A 22-point third period to turn a 0-0 match against #16 John Poznanski (Rutgers) into a tech. fall victory.

But impressive as that is, Buchanan’s been the best 197-pounder in the country this season to my eye.

Iowa’s going to need him to prove that statement true yet again on Friday.

149

On paper, Iowa’s next most winnable match is undoubtedly 149 pounds – thus its own separate category here.

#2 Kyle Parco holds a slight ranking edge over #4 Shayne Van Ness, but the latter a 2-0 series lead between them.

Back in 2023, the pair met twice about eight months apart. First was a 7-2 Van Ness win at NCAA’s under the old two-point takedown rules.

The scoreline is deceptive, however, as Parco had all but scored the opening takedown only to be countered and ridden out in the first period. Van Ness scored again early in the third, and once more amidst a last-second desperation attempt from Parco.

They’d meet again that November at the All-Star Classic (in State College, PA) in another nip-and-tuck affair. Van Ness scored the match’s only takedown amidst a flurry late in the second period of a 5-1 win.

Point being, the margins between these two have clearly been slim enough to believe Parco’s got a real chance.

It’s tougher to say that about the six other weights in this dual.

If the first-year Hawkeye can come up big, Iowa also figures to lead at intermission.

(Assuming the dual starts at 125, and assuming the first two ‘must-haves’ go Iowa’s way.)

Close enough to steal? – Level 1

The next three bouts represent ones my wrestling brain could at least conceive of going in Iowa’s favor without twisting itself into too big of a knot.

Starting at 125, #26 Joey Cruz (11-6) versus #7 Luke Lilledahl (10-1) could be far closer than their rankings suggest.

Lilledahl is the all-world recruit – with four age-level World finals appearances on his ledger already. However, he has tended to wrestle close, one-takedown matches with most of his top competitors this season.

That finally bit him last weekend, when he fell 4-1 to #19 Dean Peterson (Rutgers).

Meanwhile, Cruz has been coming into his own of late.

Since the New Year, the redshirt sophomore has beaten both #17 Nicolar Rivera (Wisconsin) and #18 Brendan McCrone (Ohio State). Both times, Cruz scored multiple takedowns while allowing none.

If it turns into a one-score match with Lilledahl, it wouldn’t stun me if Cruz emerged victorious.

At the very least, the PSU freshman has yet to prove he’s absolute nails in such situations.

That’s not quite the case with a pair of his Nittany Lion teammates whom I’m going to talk about next.

Close enough to steal? – Level 2

The other two bouts in this category are even tougher to envision going Iowa’s way.

We’ll start at 184, where there’s been plenty of talk (past and present) between #5 Gabe Arnold and #1 Carter Starocci.

Starocci hasn’t lost a contested bout since the 2021 Big Ten final (to Iowa’s Michael Kemerer):

He’s the ultimate winner and is going for a record-setting fifth individual NCAA title to prove it.

He will at times, however, wrestle low-scoring matches against stingy competition (see a 2-1 win against Nelson Brands in 2023).

He also wins them all.

I could see Arnold, an excellent defensive wrestler, finding himself in a low-scoring match against Starocci on Friday. Of course, that still leaves the near-unsolvable riddle of winning it.

Given those circumstances, could Arnold hit one precise, explosive shot at the exact moment of need?

I think he possesses the necessary physical tools to do so, sure. But that’s as far as I can go.

The mere existence of those ‘conceivable’ components earns the redshirt freshman a spot in this category – whereas I couldn’t stretch far enough to make a similar argument for a few of his teammates.

I believe a similar circumstance exists at heavyweight, where #11 Ben Kueter readies for reigning NCAA champion, #2 Greg Kerkvliet.

These two met once before, a 9-1 major decision for Kerkvliet at last year’s dual. But that match – just the third of Kueter’s college career – also took place barely one month after he’d switched over from the Iowa football team.

He’s done a lot more wrestling since then and comes off the best win of his career over #7 Nick Feldman (Ohio State).

Meanwhile, Kerkvliet enters off a controlled 2-0 victory over #9 Yaraslau Slavikouski (Rutgers).

If Kueter can keep it close, he’s got a chance.

See what happens

Look, I’m not going to insult the fortitude of any wrestler, much less one good enough to crack the Iowa lineup. If they’re on the mat, they’re good enough to beat the guy across from them – long though the odds may be.

That caveat acknowledged, I personally struggle to envision how these last three Hawkeyes win on Friday:

• Ryder Block (141)
• #2 Michael Caliendo (165)
• #6 Patrick Kennedy (174)

Ryder Block (2-4) has had a choppy enough season already coming off ACL surgery. Then the redshirt freshman missed a month-and-a-half between November and January before facing back-to-back top-12 opponents upon his return.

Now, he’ll battle his second NCAA finalist in as many weeks – #3 Beau Bartlett (12-0).

In my opinion, it’ll be a pseudo ‘victory’ if Block can keep this one to a regular decision.

Meanwhile, I almost can’t believe that I’m about to say the same thing regarding 165. There, I’d pick Michael Caliendo to beat every single 165-pounder in America except one.

The problem is that one will be his opponent on Friday night – #1 Mitchell Mesenbrink.

Mesenbrink went 3-0 versus Caliendo last season winning by margins of 12-6, 23-7 and 17-9.

Caliendo is an awesome wrestler, full stop. But to this point Mesenbrink has (repeatedly) proven to be that much better. I’ll be fascinated to see what adjustments the Hawkeye tries to make this time around.

174 is a somewhat similar story – minus the prior history.

Patrick Kennedy is tough as nails and an All-American favorite. #2 Levi Haines simply presents a difficult-to-fathom puzzle to solve (at least for this writer).

This bout may not approach bonus-point territory, but I can’t foresee how PK breaks down the two-time NCAA finalist (a 2024 national champion) and defends well enough to prevail.

Remember: Iowa is still damn good

Whatever happens on Friday night, I urge folks once again not to lose sight of the greater context.

This could be Penn State’s best team ever, and thus (arguably) the best team of all time.

Iowa wrestling fans don’t have to like it. And I certainly won’t tell them to just lie down and accept it.

Just remember that two things can simultaneously be true:

The Hawkeyes could have their best team in years and someone else could just be better.

Barring an unpredictable pin or major upset Iowa is going to have to scratch and claw its way to five wins just to give itself a chance on Friday night. And even then, it’d likely be for naught if the Hawkeyes can’t stave off PSU bonus points.

I won’t make any official predictions until the postseason. So, in the meantime, I’m just excited to watch these two bluebloods duke it out. Then in the aftermath we can reconvene and try to diagnose what it all means.

Gotta be ready.#Hawkeyes pic.twitter.com/vAacFeIy8f

— Iowa Hawkeye Wrestling (@Hawks_Wrestling) January 28, 2025

I will predict this, however: The result of this dual aside, Iowa will still be a damn good team when it wakes up the following morning.

And it’ll need to be too, because for all the (virtual) ink I’ve now spilled on Iowa/Penn State the Hawkeyes have another dual this weekend as well.

Taking on the Terps

A long-time Big Ten wrestling doormat, Maryland is finally worthy of not glossing over for the likes of an Iowa.

In fact, before last weekend the #25 Terps (8-6, 3-1 B1G) were tied with powerhouses Penn State, Iowa and Ohio State atop the conference standings. A loss may’ve wiped that tidbit away, but they still enter Sunday’s dual matinee as a ranked team.

Led by a quartet of top-12 ranked wrestlers, they’ll test the Hawkeyes…at least a little.

In addition to Maryland’s own talent, it’ll be interesting to see how Iowa rebounds from Friday night’s ‘main event.’

How do Drake Ayala and Jacori Teemer – both returning from/dealing with injury – fare with a quick turnaround?

#11 Braxton Brown (15-2 at 133) and #6 Ethen Miller (16-0 at 157) won’t make it easy on them.

Same goes for Gabe Arnold and Ben Kueter.

Not only do you want to beat foes like #11 Jaxon Smith (14-3 at 184) and #12 Seth Nevills (13-2 at 285) but separate from them if you can. Those are the types of matchups that could stand in your way of advancing at NCAAs and/or earning All-American status.

Overall, the Hawkeyes should comfortably dispatch the Terps to at least end the weekend on a winning note. But that doesn’t mean it won’t be a dual worth watching, nonetheless.

And speaking of that…

How to watch

Being the massive showdown that it is, Iowa/Penn State garners primetime billing on Friday night – complete with all the trimmings.

Big Ten Network is your television home for the latest clash beginning at 6:00 p.m. (CT). There will also be a half-hour long ‘pregame’ show from 5:30-6:00 p.m.

Shane Sparks and Jim Gibbons will be on the call for BTN.

Meanwhile, Steven Grace and Mark Ironside will have you covered on the Hawkeye Radio Network, as usual.

Tune in to AM 800 KXIC or the YouTube link below for their coverage of the year’s biggest dual:

A quick 43 hours later it’ll be time for the Iowa wrestling team to hit the mat once more.

Sunday’s dual at #25 Maryland will get underway at 1:00 p.m. (CT) and be available to stream on B1G+.

Radio duties will again be handled by Grace/Ironside:

Short time

Whew.

At long last I think I’ve probably said enough.

(Others may debate whether or not that moment actually passed a thousand or so words ago.)

But hey, there’s simply no way I’d ever be criticized for shortchanging this dual between these programs.

Iowa wrestling taking its latest shot at the current Penn State dynasty is what we live for with this sport.

There’ll be nowhere to hide come Friday night in State College. And the best part is, neither side in this rivalry would want it any other way – nor would the fans.

My only disappointment is that I won’t be there to experience it in person.

(Thankfully, next year will be here before you know it.)

Regardless, I’ll have Soup to nuts coverage all night long – with a recap to come shortly thereafter. And the same goes for the Maryland dual on Sunday afternoon.

I hope you guys are as excited as I am for this weekend to get underway.

Simply put, it’s one of the best events that the sport of wrestling has to offer. And all we have to do is sit back and watch.