With NCAAT hopes beginning to blur, the time for Iowa Women's Basketball to create a break is now

The roller coaster, up and down season that the Iowa women’s basketball has had, to this point, should have been expected to a certain extent. Nobody should have expected it to be a smooth transition without any bumps in the road. The Hawkeyes graduated the best player in women’s college basketball history, lost two more four-year starters and Lisa Bluder made the decision to retire after 24 years as head coach of the program.

It would have been completely unfair to expect Jan Jensen, despite her nearly 35 years of coaching experience alongside Bluder, to put together a successful first year without some bumps and bruises. She was very cognizant of this and spoke about it during media day back in October.

“I think if everybody will just let this year’s team be this year’s team and not the one back there and not projecting what they should do or could be, but just let this kind of all ruminate and let them kind of start figuring it out, I think they can really have a nice level of success,” said head coach Jan Jensen back on media day. “It just takes a little time. But when they get it, they have the potential to be really fun.”

There’s a lot of truth to the final part of that statement. It does take some time. The Hawkeyes went from having nearly 550 career starts on the roster, to just 175, with the majority of that number coming from Lucy Olsen who transferred in from Villanova. However, midway through the month of January, the hourglass that represents Iowa’s NCAA Tournament chances is starting run thin on sand in that upper chamber. The collection of sand at the bottom perfectly illustrates the losses that are starting to pile up. In the midst of a four-game losing streak, the Hawkeyes have fallen to 12-6 overall and 2-5 in Big Ten play. It’s their worst start in conference play since they started 1-6 back in the 2009-10 season.

If Iowa wants to return to the NCAA Tournament for a 7th consecutive season, the switch has to flip now.

“I knew when I took the job that it wasn’t going to be the easiest,” said Jensen after the loss to Nebraska. “When you lose four in a row, it’s going to be a little bit of a challenge. I’ve seen a lot of fight in them…I’m not just trying to save (myself) to the media, I do believe there was progress. I do believe that this team has a lot left in them.”

She’s right. There has been progress. The turnover issues that plagued them in their first four losses of the season haven’t been as prevalent the last two games. In fact, they’ve won the turnover battle in back-to-back games. On Thursday night against Nebraska, the Hawkeyes shot nearly 45% from the floor and averaged above 1.00 points per possession for the first time since the win against Penn State over two weeks ago. They also won the battle on the glass for the 16th time in 18 games.

However, the improvement has not shown up in the final score, and now, the reality is that the path to an NCAA Tournament bid is starting to get a little blurry. As a first-year head coach, Jan Jensen is trying to strike a balance between holding her team accountable for their mistakes, while also trying to keep the team together and thinking positive.

“I think just being direct and honest, right?” Jensen said. “I have to keep them focused on the here and now and on the next because they’re going to hear all of the things you guys are going to write about, and all the things’ people are going to say. That’s part of the world we live in now.”

“As a coach, you’ve got to reprimand and demand it (be better), but you’ve also got to make sure that they know they can do it.”

In years past, Kate Martin would be the player to step up in these moments and be the vocal leader to help turn things around. Caitlin Clark, in her own way, kept players accountable. When the Hawkeyes need it most, who’s going to be the voice that steps in and helps lead the team to creating the break that Jan Jensen is talking about?

“Aaliyah Guyton,” Jan said without hesitation. “She does a heck of a job. There’s a reason she was in at the end of the last game and the reason she was playing tonight. she has a really great perspective about it.”

“Aaliyah has got a really good steady (makeup). She moves on. That’s what I was imploring them to be like. The whole crowd might sigh when you miss the free throws, but as a competitor, it’s the next one. I think Aaliyah is wise beyond her years with that.”

Jan also mentioned Syd Affolter that also uses her voice to be a leader for the team. Recently, assistant coach Raina Harmon mentioned Hannah Stuelke as someone that does a good job of using her voice on the court. Those two, along with Guyton and someone like Taylor Stremlow, who brings copious amounts of energy to floor, need to be the ones to help lead the team in this moment.

Because the reality is that they are pretty close to figuring it out. They’ve had chances to win all four games during their losing streak, including a shot to tie it late at Illinois and a shot to win in regulation against Nebraska. If one, or both fell, the feeling may be way different right now.

“I keep telling them, we’ve got to create a break. I’m not one that is just going to depend on catching a break. We need to create them and that’s one thing we haven’t done yet.”

The time is now to create a break. Standing in front of the Hawkeyes is a trip out west to face Oregon and Washington for the first time since their addition to the Big Ten. Upon arrival back in Iowa City, they will face a Northwestern team that is winless in conference play. You could make a pretty compelling case that they need to win all three of them.

“We can’t look back on a loss and hang our heads on that. We have to get in the gym, get extra shots, extra free throws, all that. We’ve got to flip the page and be ready for the next one,” said senior Syd Affolter. “All of our losses have been very winnable games, which is the frustrating part, but we’re going to go out to Oregon and Washington, and we’re going to battle over there and give it our best shot.”