Top takeaways from Iowa's win over USC

An upset for the ages. On a day that was going to be historic and festive no matter what happened on the court, the Iowa women’s basketball team made sure it was an afternoon that those in attendance will not soon forget. The Hawkeyes (15-7, 5-6) pulled a massive upset, defeating fourth-ranked USC (19-2, 9-1) 76-69, behind a season-best performance from Lucy Olsen. With the win, Iowa moves to 15-7 overall, earning a critical win for their NCAA Tournament hopes.

Here are my top takeaways from the win and what it means for Iowa moving forward.

Main Takeaway: Lucy Olsen stepped up on the biggest stage and carried the team

Throughout the season, Lucy Olsen has taken her fair share of criticism. During the Hawkeyes five-game losing streak, her field goal percentage in Big Ten play dipped to as low as 31.5%. However, when the chips were at the center of the table on Sunday afternoon, Olsen was the best player on the floor. She put up a season-high 28 points on 10 of 18 (55.6%) shooting, while adding four rebounds and four assists.

“Right before (Lucy got going), I went up to her and I said, ‘You know how much I believe in you.’ I said, ‘it’s go time,'” head coach Jan Jensen said in the postgame press conference.

In the second half, Lucy took over the game on the offensive end, putting up 23 points, including 15 of Iowa’s 25 fourth quarter points. Down the stretch, when the Hawkeyes needed someone to step up and make big plays, it was Olsen in nearly every single situation. Although they don’t need her to be the player that routinely put up 30+ points for Villanova last season, that’s who she looked like in the second half.

Over the last three games (all Iowa wins), Lucy has put up 64 points on 24 of 40 (60.0%) shooting, while adding in 16 assists and nine rebounds. That’s the type of basketball that could make Iowa a sneaky Sweet 16 pick if they make the NCAA Tournament.

Four more thoughts on the Hawkeyes win over the Trojans

1. Addi O’Grady played the final 13:23 and was phenomenal

When Hannah Stuelke went to the bench with four fouls with 3:23 to play in the third quarter, it seemed like a possible moment in the game that would be brought up again if USC was able to pull out a win. Stuelke was solid despite the foul trouble, finishing with 10 points and five rebounds. Extended minutes with her on the bench, at the time, felt like advantage Trojans. However, Addi O’Grady came into the game and never left. She played the final 13:23 of the game, totaling 12 points on 6/7 shooting over that stretch.

“If I’ve learned anything from these four years, it’s to always be ready when your number is called,” said O’Grady. “I’m just going to go in and do what the team needs at any time. Whenever the coaches decide to put me in, whatever I can do for the team, I’m going to be ready for it.”

As good as Lucy Olsen was down the stretch for the Hawkeyes, Addi O’Grady was right with her making play after play. Her patient post move and score on one end, followed by a blocked shot on the other helped Iowa go on a 6-0 run to take the lead at the end of the third quarter. In the fourth, O’Grady teamed up with Olsen, combining for 23 of the teams 25 points. For the game, Addi finished with 13 points on 6/8 shooting and four rebounds.

2. Kylie Feuerbach set the tone; Iowa made JuJu Watkins work for her points

Much like Iowa fans saw with Caitlin Clark throughout her career, the great ones find ways to score even on off nights. JuJu Watkins finished with 27 points, but the Hawkeyes made her work and Kylie Feuerbach set the tone with her defense on the star point guard in the first quarter. Feuerbach was flying around the court hounding JuJu, and you could make an argument that her early stretch of defense helped put Watkins out of her normal rhythm, which led to some poor shot choices later in the game.

Watkins was just 1/6 from the floor in the opening quarter and shot just 8 of 22 (36.4%) for the game. It was her third-lowest single game field goal percentage game this season, while her 0.773 points per field goal attempt is her second lowest of the season. The Hawkeyes were able to keep JuJu off balance, forcing her to take some pullup three-pointers, and a couple of baseline jumpers. Two shots that she likes to avoid when things are rolling smoothly for her.

If you told Jan Jensen coming into the game that JuJu Watkins was going to total 27 points on 22 field goal attempts with ten made free throws, she would have taken that in a heartbeat.

3. Free throw shooting and the turnover battle were huge factors

The free throw shooting debacle against Nebraska seems like a distant memory at this point. Over the last four games, the Hawkeyes are 54 of 69 (78.3%) from the free throw line, including 29 of 33 (87.8%) in the fourth quarter. On Sunday, Lucy Olsen and Syd Affolter were a combined 7/7 at the line in the final quarter. Free throws win close games, and Iowa seems to be figuring that out at the right time.

Turnovers have been a hotly discussed topic for the majority of the season, and for good reason. It’s an area that has really cost Iowa in some of their losses. Coming into the game, Iowa ranked 164th in turnover rate, going up against a USC team that ranked 44th in forced turnover rate. On the flip side, Iowa’s defense ranked 232nd in forced turnover rate, while the USC offense ranked 46th in turnover rate. Not exactly a recipe for success on paper, but it didn’t play out that way.

The Hawkeyes turned it over 17 times, but were able to force 18 USC turnovers and Iowa ending up winning the points off turnovers battle 17-16. Syd Affolter and Lucy Olsen combined for eight steals. I said prior to the game that keeping the turnover battle close was going to be a huge key and it certainly was.

4. The Hawkeyes can nearly lock themselves into an NCAA Tournament bid with a win on Thursday at Minnesota

It’s really hard to describe just how impactful this win will be down the stretch for the Hawkeyes. There’s a very high probability that no other bubble team will go into Selection Sunday with a win like this one and that will hold a ton of weight. Sitting at 15-7 overall and 5-6 in Big Ten play, the road to an 8-10 conference record seems very manageable. All along, the general consensus has been that 8-10 would get Iowa into the NCAA Tournament.

So, what is the path to 8-10? Take care of business in their two easiest remaining games against Rutgers and Wisconsin (both in Iowa City), while earning a road win against either Minnesota, Nebraska, Michigan or Ohio State. In my opinion, a win in their next game at Minnesota on Thursday night would lock Iowa into the NCAA Tournament barring something almost inconceivable like a 1-5 finish with a loss to Wisconsin or Rutgers.