Kansas State opponent preview: Troy

The statistics used to learn more about Kansas State opponents are via footballoutsiders.com, bcftoys.com, collegefootballdata.com and stats.ncaa.org. ksu_FAN will begin to take a glance at each team on the K-State schedule this year, and Troy is next.

Learning more about Kansas State opponent: Troy

LAST FIVE GAMES: Only meeting between Kansas State and Troy was a 41-5 Wildcat victory in 2003.
2022 RECORD: 12-2 Overall, 7-1 Sun Belt (league champions)
WINS: Troy finished the year with an 18-12 win over a very good UTSA team (11-3 and No. 48 F+ ranking). They also defeated No. 59 South Alabama (10-3), No. 60 Western Kentucky (9-5), No. 65 Marshall (9-4) and No. 84 Coastal Carolina (9-4). Not only that, they finished the season with 11 straight wins. The bowl victory over No. 22 UTSA was only the third win over a ranked opponent in the last 20 seasons for Troy.
LOSSES: They fell to No. 20 Ole Miss (8-5) and No. 67 Appalachian State (6-6). While the Trojans had a last second loss to Appalachian State, they won seven games by 10 points or less and six by less than a touchdown.

With it being an early contest, they possess the ability to test K-State.

Head coach Jon Sumrall led Troy to their best season in school history during his first year with the program. They set highs for both wins and postseason ranking. He recently spent time as an assistant at Kentucky and Ole Miss after a stint as an assistant at Troy from 2015-2017 under Neal Brown.

He inherited a program that only won five games in each of the three previous seasons. Sumrall is a Kentucky graduate where he played linebacker in the early 2000s.

2022 Numbers

For the first time in program history, Troy finished the season ranked in the polls. They were No. 19 in the AP Poll and No. 20 in the Coaches Poll.

The Trojans were led by a strong defense that allowed just 1.49 points per drive (No. 10) and finished as the No. 12 defense in the country according to the F+ metric.

They were top 20 in multiple categories, including scoring defense (No. 8), explosiveness allowed (No. 13), passing efficiency (No. 14) and passing predicted points added (No. 14). The only defensive weakness was rush success rate allowed (No. 66).

On the other side of the ball, the Troy offense was poor, which may be a positive matchup for Kansas State, considering their own components. They scored just 2.10 points per drive (No. 74) and finished No. 95 in the F+ metric.

The passing game was okay. It ranked No. 40 in predicted points added, No. 40 in explosiveness and No. 38 in efficiency. However, the rush offense ranked No. 90 or worse in most major categories.

Troy was below average in the special teams phase, too. They ranked No. 76 in the FEI, with only the field goal (No. 34) and kickoff coverage (No. 46) units ranking in the top 75 on the national level.

Preseason accolades

Most preseason publications have Troy competing with South Alabama for the Sun Belt West division title, especially with a favorable schedule that avoids East division foes Marshall, Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State.

The Trojans are No. 64 in Bill Connelly’s preseason SP+ ranking, based off being No. 44 on defense and No. 88 on offense. Athlon has them at No. 42 and Kelly Ford’s ranking places them at No. 63.

Their bad offense lost the two best receivers and a pair of first team All-OVC offensive linemen, while the defense lost three of the top four tacklers from a year ago, including the Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year.

That is optimal for K-State.

Key players on offense

1.) Kimani Vidal (RB): He was a second team All-Sun Belt pick last season and is on the preseason team this year. Vidal rushed for 1,132 yards at 4.9 a clip a year ago to go with 10 touchdowns. He has 2,349 yards and 19 touchdowns on the ground in his three-year career, in addition to 499 yards receiving
2. Gunnar Watson (QB): The senior signal-caller is entering his sixth season at Troy, seeing extensive action in each of the last three seasons. That included 30 starts. He threw for 2,818 yards, completing 61.5 percent of his passes for 13.7 yards per completion last season. However, he did have just 14 touchdowns to pair with 12 interceptions. Watson has thrown for over 6,700 yards in his career and also has 38 touchdowns and 23 interceptions. He is not a rushing threat.
3.) Deshon Stoudemire (WR): Also a senior, the receiver enters his third season at Troy and has 830 career receiving yards and four scores. He was the third-leading receiver in 2022 with 507 yards and two touchdowns.
4.) Jabre Barber (WR): Like Stoudemire, he also enters his third season at Troy and has 675 career receiving yards and five scores. He finished 2022 with 351 yards and two touchdowns.
5.) Asa Martin (RB): After three seasons at Memphis and a year at Auburn, Martin has landed at Troy. At Memphis, he collected 776 career rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. He added another 567 yards receiving and averaged 4.5 yards per carry as a Tiger.
6.) Grant Betts (OL): Having an offensive lineman on the preseason All-Sun Belt team is nothing to ignore. He is the anchor of the Trojan offensive line with 37 career starts. Betts will put up a fight against the Kansas State front.

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— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) July 6, 2023

Key players on defense

1.) TJ Jackson (DE): He was a first team all-league choice last season and a preseason selection this year. Jackson broke out last season by leading the team with 14.5 tackles for loss and eight sacks.
2.) Reddy Steward (CB): Just like Jackson, Steward was a first team pick last year and was named to the preseason All-Sun Belt team this season. He is one of the best cornerbacks in the league and tallied 12 pass break-ups and three interceptions in 2022. Steward also returned one of those for a score. He is the fifth-leading returning from last season for Troy.
3.) Richard Jibunor (DE): A second team All-Sun Belt honoree last year and a preseason pick this season, Jibunor joins Jackson in giving the Trojans a dynamic pair of defensive ends. Jibunor was second on the team with 11.5 tackles for loss last season and tied Jackson with eight sacks. He spent a season at Auburn before joining Troy for three seasons that has produced 29.5 tackles for loss, 21.5 sacks and three interceptions.
4.) Dell Pettus (S): He was an honorable mention choice last year and is on this year’s preseason All-Sun Belt team. Pettus was tied as Troy’s third-leading tackler last season, which included 32 of the solo variety. He has 240 tackles for his career.
5.) Javon Solomon (DE): The defensive end was a third team pick last year and on this year’s preseason All-Sun Belt team. Solomon is another pass rusher worth mentioning. He finished last year with 44 tackles, 7.5 for loss and 4.5 sacks. He also led Troy with 11 sacks in 2021 and has 17 for his career. Have you noticed how many are on the defensive line? The K-State offensive line will have their hands full.
6.) O’Shai Fletcher (CB): He made the preseason All-Sun Belt team. Fletcher provides the Trojans with another experienced cornerback. He has 82 games under his belt at Troy.

Key players on special teams

1.) Scott Taylor Renfoe (K): He hasn’t kicked a field goal in his two years at Troy, but he’s filling a large role on a team that won so many close games last season. The Trojans made 17 of 19 field goals during the 2022 season. If the defense can hold opponents to low totals again, making field goals could be key in replicating the 2022 season if the offense doesn’t make a significant improvement.

K-State wins if…

Kansas State wins if they can handle a Troy defense that has an experienced and strong front and secondary. An experienced K-State offensive line will be tested by a disruptive line from the Trojans that can get after the quarterback.

Additionally, the Kansas State receivers have a bit to prove and face a tough pair of cornerbacks, too.

While Troy has a few weapons on the offensive side of the ball, the test for K-State will be how they handle a very, very strong Trojan defense. If Troy is up to the task and can keep the Wildcats out of the end zone and force a few turnovers, the Group of Five curse could return for Kansas State.

Troy’s offense would just need to take care of the ball and dictate the temp and pace of the game. The Trojans love to slow it down and make it a game consisting of a low number of snaps. They averaged just 66.7 snaps a game in 2022.

With that being said, the Wildcats should prevail.

Prediction: Kansas State 27, Troy 10