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Pick and preview: Abilene Christian at Kansas State

On3 imageby:Grant Flanders•12/05/22•

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THREE FACTORS FOR KANSAS STATE

1. FAST START: Sluggish starts have held Kansas State back a bit in the early part of the season. There has been a lack of energy from the Wildcats in the last four contests against quality competition, and it has allowed the opponent to take advantage. Against Abilene Christian, that won’t be acceptable. If K-State were to dig themselves into an early hole against a subpar team, it isn’t a great sign.

2. TEAM REBOUNDING: It was a group effort to grab rebounds and yet Kansas State still lost to the Shockers in that category. It didn’t help that Abayomi Iyiola and Ismael Massoud have been out with injury, but even they aren’t dominant on the glass. They are without an elite rebounder, but K-State has capable athletes. It will take an extra effort to avoid losing on the glass.

3. LAYUPS: Kansas State was 5 of 14 on layup attempts in Bramlage Coliseum on Saturday evening. Easy buckets against a small team proved to be far more difficult than expected. I would understand losing on the glass and missing layups against Butler, but Wichita State didn’t even have the size to warrant those shortcomings.

WHAT THE WILDCATS NEED TO LEARN

1. CONSISTENT HELP: Desi Sills had a heck of a play when he trailed a Shocker in transition and blocked his shot at the rim late in the game. Outside of that, he was non-existent after having combined for 33 points in the previous two contests. Luckily, Nae’Qwan Tomlin woke up after a two-game slump and poured in a great first half. The question is can one or both of them become consistent enough to produce points every contest?

2. FREE THROWS: K-State managed just over 60 percent from the free throw line on Saturday. That is uncharacteristic of a team that has shot almost 77 percent from the charity stripe on the season. Kansas State saw 21 chances but only connected on 13 of them. That performance brought their average below 80 percent for the year. They must find a groove again on the freebies tonight.

3. SETTING THE PACE: There have been a few games this season in which the opponent has been able to set the pace of the game. It happened against Kansas City and again against Wichita State. The Shockers pressed and played a zone that slowed everything down and took the Wildcats out of any rhythm. At some point, that has to stop, especially against mid-major competition. K-State has to be the team that dictates the pace of each game.

KANSAS STATE STARS

MARKQUIS NOWELL: Kansas State star point guard Markquis Nowell has been great in just about every game. It is not the time to doubt him at the level he is playing at on both ends of the floor. I’m expecting a 14-point, six-assist and two-steal kind of night from the K-State playmaker.

TYKEI GREENE: The Kansas State reserve hasn’t shown much promise ever since the first couple of games of the season. His defense has lacked and it has kept him off the floor. Abilene Christian gives Tykei Greene the perfect opportunity to find some success. He’s a good athlete with tremendous length. If he can ever figure out how to be consistent, he could be a factor this year.

FAN’S VIEW

Abilene Christian is in only their 10th season of Division I basketball, but they have a pair of NCAA Tournament appearances and are best known for knocking Texas out of the NCAA tournament in 2021. Coach Brette Tanner is in his second season as head coach, but he was on that staff and has been at Abilene Christian since 2013.

He took over for Joe Golding after he was hired at UTEP.

Under Golding and Tanner, the Wildcats are known for forcing turnovers in bunches and finished No. 1 in defensive turnover rate each of the last two seasons and have finished top 10 in each of the last five. That could provide problems for K-State, who has been turnover-happy at times this season.

They also attack on the offensive end. They get to the free throw line often, while also relying on the three-point shot. Abilene Christian will be relentless and use a heavy rotation. Nine guys average at least 15 minutes per game and no one plays more than 25.

Abilene Christian is led by their defense, once again forcing turnovers at a high rate. They rank No. 30 nationally in turnover rate at 23.9 percent. The Wildcats are solid on the defensive glass, allowing an offensive rebounding rate of 28.1 percent to rank No. 158.

Their defense breaks down if their pressure is beat. They rank No. 340 in 2PT% (two-point percentage) defense (57.4 percent) and No. 311 for eFG% (effective field goal percentage) at 54.8 percent. Another result of their pressure is fouling a lot. Opponents average over 21 free throw attempts per game and the Wildcats rank No. 340 in opponent’s free throw rate allowed at 43.9 percent.

On offense, Abilene Christian’s lone real strength is beyond the arc. They rank No. 30 nationally from distance at 38.6 percent. The Wildcats were No. 8 in free throw rate last year and shot nearly 23 per game, but they are only No. 263 so far this season.

They are not good on the glass. Abilene Christian ranks No. 309 in offensive rebounding rate, and they are even worse taking care of the ball with a turnover rate that ranks No. 336. Abilene Christian makes 47.4 percent from two-point range to rank No. 250.

Abilene Christian is 5-4 on the season with three wins against non-Division I programs. They also beat KenPom No. 305 Jackson State and No. 271 Northern Arizona. The losses were versus No. 58 Texas A&M, No. 218 Wright State, No. 283 Weber State and No. 173 UC-Riverside.

They only trailed Texas A&M by five at halftime before falling by 19.

Abilene Christian will rotate a bunch of guys and we will likely see players that didn’t make the above 10-man chart. They are one of the smallest teams in the country with only one player over 6-foot-8 in their typical 10-player rotation.

Kansas State will face a four-guard lineup with four players at 6-foot-5 or smaller on the floor 90 percent of the time. They do have significant continuity on the roster. Six players are in at least their third season at Abilene Christian and five have been there four or more seasons.

Forward Cameron Steele leads the Wildcats in scoring at 10.7 points per game and is second in rebounding with 3.9 per game. He’s a 43.9 percent three-point shooter and leads the team with 4.6 three point attempts per game. He leads in efficiency at 1.24 and is his third year at Abilene Christian.

Guard Immanuel Allen scores 10.6 points per game with 3.2 rebounds per game as well. Allen leads the Wildcats in three-point percentage at 48.1 percent on 3.0 attempts per game. He also leads them in scoring rate at 29.3 points per 100 possessions and is in his fourth season.

Wing Tobias Cameron is the Wildcats’ leading rebounder at 5.6 per game while scoring 9.6 points per game and dishing out 2.7 assists per contest, too. He leads in usage at 22.4 percent and makes 36.4 percent from the perimeter on 2.4 attempts per game. It is his fifth season at Abilene Christian.

Desi Sills/Getty

Point guard Damien Daniels co-leads the team with 3.1 assists per game and scores 7.4 points per game. He’s hitting 45.5 percent from deep. Daniels is another fifth-year player. Guard Hunter-Jack Madden scores 6.1 points per game, hitting 34.8 percent from three-point land on 2.6 attempts per game.

He is a junior college transfer that also played one season at Idaho.

Ja’Sean Jackson splits time at point guard and averages 3.1 assists per game. Jackson makes 31.0 percent from distance and is in his second season with the Wildcats.

Joe Pleasant was a Wichita State Shocker last year and scored three points against K-State. However, he spent three seasons at Abilene Christian prior to that, with 57 starts and a pair of double-digit scoring seasons. He has only played in six games and averages 4.7 points per game this year.

Airion Simmons is third for Abilene Christian in scoring at 9.8 points per game. Simmons averages 2.5 assists per game and makes 40.9 percent from beyond the arc on 2.8 attempts per game. Ali Abdou Dibba is the ninth player averaging at least 15 minutes per game. The Chicago State transfer averages 7.6 points and 3.0 rebounds per game.

It will be an interesting test for Kansas State with Abilene Christian’s pressure defense and the Wildcats often struggling to take care of the ball. However, K-State’s defense will cause similar issues against the other Wildcats.

The contest could feature 40 combined turnovers, but the size, rebounding abilities and strength of Kansas State getting to the free throw line a lot against a defense that is prone to fouling should be too much for Abilene Christian to overcome. 

Kansas State 77 – Abilene Christian 54

Keyontae Johnson/Getty

FLANDO’S PREDICTION

Abilene Christian will likely be solid in their own conference, but when it comes to high-major foes, they don’t stand a chance. Texas A&M put it on them and I think that should be a good measuring stick for how tonight could turn out in Manhattan.

K-State will actually set the pace for the first time in a while and dominate in almost every category in a blowout win for the Wildcats.

Kansas State 75 – Abilene Christian 57

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