Pick and preview: Kansas State at Cal

FOUR FACTORS FOR KANSAS STATE

1. DEFENSE, DEFENSE, DEFENSE: What is one thing that they say always travels for a team? That’s the defense, and it should be no different for Kansas State. Because of their incredible length and the opportunistic guards, that is the strong suit for the Wildcats, particularly in the halfcourt. I’m envisioning some shooting woes in the first road game for many in a K-State uniform. Leaning on the defensive end of the floor will likely be necessary.

2. TRANSITION: Speaking of defense, I’m looking for noticeable improvement in the area where I thought was particularly disappointing in the Kansas State season-opener. The attention to detail was missing because they were not getting back on defense nearly enough versus UT-Rio Grande Valley. Will that appear to be addressed when K-State takes the floor versus Cal?

3. FOULS: Because defense will be so important in Berkeley, let’s stick to that theme. In contests against both Washburn and the Vaqueros, foul trouble crept up on the Wildcats. Kansas State guard Desi Sills nearly fouled out versus Washburn and Nae’Qwan Tomlin almost had the same fate against UT-Rio Grande Valley. David N’Guessan, Cam Carter and Abayomi Iyiola had three fouls of their own. Can they better guard without putting the opponent on the free throw line?

4. CRASH THE GLASS: It is a phase that has been a strong point for them in the two games that we have seen them compete in and I anticipate K-State needing it for production on the offensive end of the floor. It would not be a shock if they were not efficient when it comes to a field goal percentage, especially from the outside, in the first game away from home. Because of that, rebounding their own misses could be where they find some hidden points.

WHAT THE WILDCATS NEED TO LEARN

1. ROAD TEST: Jerome Tang has created a vision board for the Kansas State basketball team. Being undefeated at home was part of it. Winning game number one was part of it. Logging a victory in their first road contest of the season was also included. Can they pass that test? Even though I don’t envision the Golden Bears being much of a boost to the resume of K-State at the end of the day, it would still be a strong sign if the Wildcats were impressive.

2. FINDING MORE DEPTH: A game like this, especially on the road and early in the season, is always a nice measuring stick to see how much meaningful depth you have at your disposal. I assume Tang will look to determine that as well. How useful will guys like Ismael Massoud and Dorian Finister be this year for Kansas State?

3. RESILIENCE AND MENTAL TOUGHNESS: I know some just want to see another dominant performance and for K-State to have their way with Mark Fox’s Cal squad and to face zero adversity and stress. Though I do not think that to be the case, that can be a good thing. I’ve already shared that the non-conference portion of the schedule provides very few challenges, and I still mean that, but them facing a bit of adversity and having to respond to it would be a good thing for Kansas State.

KANSAS STATE STARS

MARKQUIS NOWELL: No offense to everyone else on the K-State roster, but I’ll side with experience, age and comfort with it being the first game on the road for the Wildcats. Because of that, Markquis Nowell is a clear choice for a top player just like he was for Kansas State in the season opener versus UT-Rio Grande Valley.

KEYONTAE JOHNSON: I’m not sure that Ismael Massoud plays enough minutes for the distinction and Dorian Finister is just a true freshman. Three are redshirting. Desi Sills being around so little probably makes it a bit of an uphill climb for him. Cam Carter is younger. It will be a new situation for Nae’Qwan Tomlin. I’m not against Abayomi Iyiola, David N’Guessan or Tykei Greene, but I liked the rhythm that veteran Keyontae Johnson found against the Vaqueros on Monday night. I’m thinking he can carry that over into Friday evening.

FAN’S TAKE

K-State faces another former Wildcat assistant in Coach Tang’s first road game of the year when they face the California Bears and Mark Fox. Fox is in his fourth season at Cal and has a 35-58 record (.376) over his first three seasons.

Last year’s Bears were 12-20 and 5-15 in the Pac-12 for a 10th place finish in the league.

Gone are the top four scorers and top two rebounders from that team and the Bears only brought in a couple of transfers. So, they are relying on the development of players from within instead of newcomers.

Fox’s profile at Georgia was to play slow and defend really well, though he hasn’t replicated that at Cal and I’m not sure that he will be able to do so. His best teams featured length and athleticism, blocking shots like crazy, holding teams to low two-point percentages and hitting the defensive glass hard.

He had multiple top 50 efficiency defenses in Athens, but they have yet to crack the top 80 at Cal. It doesn’t look like he is recruiting the same type of athletes to build that type of defense.

Offensively, Fox has had one team crack the top 80 in efficiency in the last decade. His best teams get to the free throw line often and are decent on the offensive glass, but a Fox-coached team hasn’t finished better than No. 194 in eFG% (effective field goal percentage) since 2011.

The majority of his teams have been turnover-prone, too. Last year’s Cal team was No. 94 in turnover rate but the previous eight teams he coached finished No. 180 or worse.

Bruce Weber and Kansas State faced Mark Fox’s Georgia teams three times in the last seven seasons. Fox won the first meeting during the 2015 season while Weber and the Wildcats won the last two in 2016 and 2018. All three games were decided by five points or less.

Fox’s Golden Bears lost their first game of the season to UC-Davis, 75-65. It was the first win for the Aggies over Cal in 34 tries in a series that dates back to 1917.

Fox landed one impact transfer in former top 50 recruit Devin Askew. K-State faced Askew twice last season when he played at Texas. In two games, he totaled five points, five assists and a steal while finishing 2 of 5 from the floor, 2 of 2 from the free throw line and bucketless on three attempts from beyond the arc.

Before Texas, Askew played one season at Kentucky. 

He scored 19 points on 20 shots in Cal’s opening loss to UC-Davis. His usage was 34.3 percent and he took 36.3 percent of the Golden Bears’ shots while on the floor. So, it appears Fox plans to rely on him heavily this season.

Askew finished 1 of 6 from the perimeter and was 4 of 5 from the charity stripe while dishing out four assists and collecting three rebounds.

7-foot-1 senior center Lars Thiemann scored 17 points on 7 of 11 shooting, had eight rebounds and blocked two shots in game one of the year. He is in his fourth year at Cal with career averages of 3.7 points per game and 2.9 rebounds per game. 

Kuany Kuany is a 6-foot-9 senior forward, also playing his fourth season for Fox. Kuany scored 10 points with a pair of rebounds. His career numbers are 3.3 points per game and 1.6 rebounds per game, while making 31 percent from deep.

Sophomore Sam Alajiki finished with six rebounds and scored four points in the season opener, along with three blocked shots. The 6-foot-7 wing scored 3.1 points per game last season and finished with 1.9 rebounds per game and hit 50% of his threes as a freshman.

Guard Joel Brown was the fifth starter in game one. He was second in rebounding with seven and finished with five points and was 1 of 3 from beyond the arc. Brown is another Bear in his fourth season and has career averages of 4.1 points per game and 2.7 assists per game while making 31.4 percent of his threes.

Freshman Grant Newell was Cal’s best player off the bench. The 6-foot-8 forward scored eight points and was 3 of 7 from the floor.

The Golden Bears also have a grad transfer in guard DeJuan Clayton that didn’t play vs UC Davis, but he played in their exhibition contest. Clayton only played in two games last year for Hartford, but he previously played five seasons at Coppin State with 107 starts.

He averaged 13.1 points per game, 3.6 assists per game and hit 28.5 percent from distance for the Eagles.

Coach Tang was wise to add a high-major road game to the schedule, yet still find an opponent that the Wildcats should defeat as he molds his Kansas State team together. Though we’ve only seen K-State against a Division II school and a bad UT-Rio Grande Valley team, the Wildcats look to have a combination of length and athleticism that should give California fits.

Fox is relying on an underperforming but highly-rated transfer and his own recruits that haven’t done much in their time in Berkeley. If Kansas State is they need to be, this is a game they should be able to win comfortably.

Kansas State 74 – Cal 61

DY’S PREDICTION

On paper, K-State should win with ease. And if the game is played in February instead of November, Jerome Tang’s club is probably seasoned enough and has enough cohesion and chemistry on the court and experience in the system to dethrone Cal by close to 20 points, even if it is in Berkeley.

However, it is November. There will still be growing pains for Kansas State, and they probably will be suckered into playing a bit at the pace of the Golden Bears, who prefer to operate in a methodical manner and shorten the game.

Because of that, it’ll be closer than some are anticipating, in my opinion. That’s probably why the Wildcats are only a four or five-point favorite, to be honest. I will lean towards them covering, but it’s no slam dunk.

Kansas State 67 – Cal 60