Pick and preview: Texas at Kansas State

KSO will look at a handful of categories each week when previewing the Kansas State game on Saturday. We discuss factors to keep in mind for the Wildcats, what K-State needs to learn, the players to watch and a final prediction.

FOUR FACTORS FOR KANSAS STATE

1. DANIEL GREEN’S STATUS: We still don’t know if Kansas State linebacker Daniel Green will be available. Even more than last week’s game against Oklahoma State, in which he didn’t play, he is needed this week because of the potent Texas offense. In particular, stopping Bijan Robinson seems particularly troubling without his presence. However, the reaction from K-State defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman to the question on Thursday didn’t make me feel great about Green’s chances.

2. TURNOVER MARGIN: Kansas State has been two different teams in terms of turnover margin depending on whether they are playing in Manhattan or not. They are +14 in that department at home. At the same time, they haven’t even forced a turnover away from home. I’m not sure they can knock off the Longhorns without a positive differential.

3. FAST START: Speaking of playing home, it is a lot easier to have the fans engaged when you’re operating at a high level from the jump and even hop out to an early lead. Can K-State do that? Each time in the past where there has been a great chance of a crazy home environment, something has happened to zap it. Against Missouri earlier this season, it was no fault of their own. The weather did it. But they allowed Breece Hall to score on the first play from scrimmage a year ago in a game that could have had a tremendous crowd, too. Let’s avoid that.

4. RED ZONE DEFENSE: Look, I’m a believer in the Kansas State defense. But I’m also a believer in the Texas offense if Steve Sarkisian doesn’t disrupt his own team. They can really move the ball and there’s only so much defenses can do after a while. Because of that, not only are turnovers important, but so is squeezing the Longhorns inside the 20-yard line and keeping them out of the end zone. The field shrinks and it’s a bit easier to come up with plays on that part of the surface.

WHAT THE WILDCATS NEED TO LEARN

1. END THE TREND: While the home and away trends are in the favor of K-State, everything else is pointing in the direction of Texas. Kansas State hasn’t defeated them since 2016. Believe it or not, I feel like I’ve been covering the Wildcats for years and I’ve never covered a game between the two sides where K-State has won. That’s wild. Not only that, K-State head coach Chris Klieman has never beat the Longhorns. However, he did get the monkey off his back versus Oklahoma State last week.

2. MULTI-GAME LEAD: A Kansas State win would be monstrous for the Big 12 standings. They already hold a one-game lead on Texas, Oklahoma State and Baylor. Essentially, it is a two-game lead on the Cowboys because of the tie-breaker. Using the same logic, a win over the Longhorns would make it a three-game lead on Texas for all intents and purposes. On top of that, Baylor is an underdog versus Oklahoma this weekend.

3. CLARITY AT QUARTERBACK: Having uncertainty at the quarterback position each week is probably not a sustainable operation. I do think that a bit of clarity, having the team know who to fully get behind on a week-to-week basis, that quarterback receive all the practice reps and be exclusively prepared is a more optimal situation. It would be beneficial for K-State if they walked away with absolute confidence on who the starter is at quarterback.

SATURDAY STARS

MALIK KNOWLES: The Kansas State receiver has 17 receptions for 290 yards in his last three games. He’s playing against his home-state team and the Longhorns are a bit more susceptible in the passing game. Deuce Vaughn was a consideration, especially if Will Howard is the man at quarterback, but Malik Knowles is on a hot streak. I’ll ride with him.

KHALID DUKE: If Quinn Ewers has all day to throw, he can pick K-State apart, little by little. Nobody in the league has more arm talent than him. Having a very good secondary can’t be the only solution. Red zone defense also isn’t the only solution. They need to make Ewers uncomfortable, much like what we saw from Texas Tech and Oklahoma State when he played in Lubbock and Stillwater. Kansas State seems keen on unleashing Khalid Duke more and more.

PHILLIP BROOKS: K-State felt like they saw something in game prep that had them confident in blocking a punt against Oklahoma State. They were right. They came close more than once. However, they were just fingertips away. For the bout with the Longhorns, I believe the big play will have to come from a punt return by Phillip Brooks.

Advanced match up stats for Saturday's game between K-State and Texas. Points per drive, havoc, success rate, explosiveness and drive rate stats plus special teams. Data from @CFB_Data and @bcfremeau.

My keys for K-State in this thread. (1) pic.twitter.com/4BdJmXXX88

— ksu_FAN 🌾🌾 🌾 (@ksu_FAN) November 4, 2022

PREDICTION

I’m not an idiot. I know the Kansas State fan base will turn against me if I picked the Wildcats. They are tripped up and lose every time that I do. But I’ll be honest, I actually do like Texas to win on Saturday night in Manhattan.

The K-State defense has been great this season, but they did whittle a bit versus TCU in Fort Worth without Daniel Green. I could see something similar this week, especially given that Steve Sarkisian is a terrific offensive mind that has been given a bit more time to prepare and scheme.

So, I think it’s too much offense for the Longhorns. Texas slides past Kansas State in Bill Snyder Family Stadium, 31-28.