Pick and Preview: Texas Tech at Kansas State

KSO will look at a handful of categories each week when previewing the Kansas State game on Saturday. We discuss factors to keep in mind for the Wildcats, what K-State needs to learn, the players to watch and a final prediction.

We also have the scoop on pregame news and notes as well.

FOUR FACTORS FOR KANSAS STATE

1. LEARN YOUR LESSON: The first time that Kansas State played after an emotional win was not pretty. They thoroughly celebrated the win over Missouri, but they answered it with a dud against Tulane. Have they learned the lesson from that experience and re-calibrated and re-focused enough for Texas Tech?

2. LINE OF SCRIMMAGE: If there is a weakness for the Red Raiders, it is their offensive line. Despite a quick-passing attack, they’ve surrendered a lot of sacks this season, a high sack rate and have next to no running game (probably by choice). And though Texas is talented up front, I’m not sure they’ve faced a front as disruptive as the one that they’ll see from K-State.

3. TURNOVERS: And when there is pressure, quarterback Donovan Smith has been pretty generous with the ball. He’s not a great quarterback on the road versus playing at home, and we saw that on display when they traveled to Raleigh to face NC State compared to being at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock versus Texas. His turnover issues are always amplified away from his own venue.

4. EXPLOSIVES: I don’t have the stats available in front of me, but Kansas State has felt less explosive on offense this season. Deuce Vaughn has only broken loose once through four games, Malik Knowles has a long carry, Adrian Martinez has a long carry and a touchdown toss to Kade Warner and was benefited from some yards after the catch from Ben Sinnott, but that’s just about it. Having some big plays and not having to sustain some drives every time would go a long way for the Wildcats.

The 3MAW Texas Tech preview episode — also known as the stats in the bedroom pod — is now available. Give it a listen below👇https://t.co/tBhn2wDmAHhttps://t.co/YsPKgQ7Mhdhttps://t.co/2VVB09wJnd

— Cole Manbeck (@Cole_Manbeck) September 29, 2022

WHAT THE WILDCATS NEED TO LEARN

1. CONSISTENCY ON OFFENSE: It was great to see Martinez flip the script and become more aggressive against Oklahoma in Norman. But that has to be the expectation every week instead of just rising to the occasion here and there if K-State wants a special season. Will Martinez be reliable each outing and have that mindset every game?

2. OFFENSIVE LINE DEPTH: An issue that has popped up for the Wildcats is the offensive line being whittled down and thinning. We don’t know when Andrew Leingang will return and Taylor Poitier is on the shelf for the entire season. The cramps have been problematic too because they’re already missing those two. The margin for error at that position has shrunk in dramatic fashion, and it’s really just a spell of bad luck. Dawson Delforge needs a career year and it would be great to find another that emerges and can instill confidence.

3. HEALTH OF MATLACK: The other side of the line of scrimmage has been dealt with an injury, too. Nate Matlack couldn’t supply more than three snaps versus Oklahoma. It would be great to walk away from the contest against Texas Tech with a win and knowing that Matlack is on the mend.

SATURDAY STARS

Malik Knowles: I’m a believer in that he is on the verge of having one of his better statistical seasons. If Martinez keeps the same mentality that he had in Norman, Knowles will be one of the major benefactors of that. They want to get the ball in his hands as much as possible, and all three of Martinez, Chris Klieman and Collin Klein made it a point to emphasize that this week. If he catches a touchdown pass against the Red Raiders, it will be the first time in his career that he’s had a scoring reception in consecutive weeks.

Julius Brents: We have already noted how Smith has had a battle with turnovers this season and on the road. Kansas State should also be disruptive along the line of scrimmage and coax him into some poor decisions, too. Although he has yet to grab one himself when others have, Julius Brents is the best cornerback for K-State and could be the recipient of a golden opportunity in Bill Snyder Family Stadium.

Chris Tennant: He has played two games in a row without a miss. That is not some impressive feat, but it’s a good sign for Chris Tennant. The Mill Valley product has had a rocky start to his career in Manhattan, and he seems to be headed in the right direction. Kudos to him for also continuing to remain mentally strong enough not to completely shatter. He’s one of the more talented kickers to ever come through the Kansas State program, and that will show itself if he clears the mental hurdle with some of the shorter kicks.

PREDICTION

The hangover bowl between K-State and Texas Tech kicks off in Manhattan at 11:00 a.m. CST on ESPN Plus. Perhaps it is looking at it with purple-colored glasses, but I believe that the team most likely to be flat is the Red Raiders.

Their win was at home where they defeated Texas in Lubbock for the first time since 2008, stormed the field, took down the goal posts, threw the ‘Horns Down’ signal more in 10 minutes than ever before and talked trash in the press conferences afterwards about it.

They then have to turn around and play at 11:00 a.m. on the road. Additionally, they haven’t had to go through this experience yet this year when K-State has following their emotional high that ensued after defeating regional rival Missouri and rubbing the Tigers’ nose in it.

I believe they learn their lesson from that and we’ll see a difference between a culture in year four and a culture in year one.

Both teams want to operate fast and there will be lots of possessions and a potential for more points in somewhat of a funky game, which tends to always be the case when Kansas State plays Texas Tech. But the Wildcats win comfortably, 36-20.