K-State’s Last Chance: How each team could win the Big 12 Tournament

It’s the most wonderful time of the year! Conference tournament week is finally here. Kansas State for the second straight season shows up to Kansas City needing to win the whole thing to earn a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Is it far-fetched that K-State could win five games in five days to steal the auto-bid? Absolutely. But everybody has a path, or at least their coaches are telling them they have one right now. Except Utah, they don’t have a coach, but they kind of do, but not really.

With that in mind, it is time for the second annual edition of why every team can win the Big 12 Tournament ranked from most likely to least likely.

1. TEXAS TECH

Through the entire leadup to the Big 12 Tournament, I preached Kansas State wanted to be in the bottom half of the bracket. That was for a team that had to play five games in five days to win. Now imagine being a team that only needs three wins to get it done? By far the most consistent team with the most dangerous weapons in the bottom half seem to be Texas Tech. The path is there for the Red Raiders to claim their first ever conference tournament title.

2. BYU

They have won eight straight games and surged past Iowa State in the final week to claim the final double bye. They are playing their best basketball right now and I imagine they will get enough fan support in KC. One could argue they are right up there with Houston as the best teams in the Big 12 going into the NCAA Tournament.

3. HOUSTON

Kelvin Sampson has the most talented team in the Big 12 and most consistent, they will have to get over a few humps to win though. The first being that no one seed has ever won the Big 12 Tournament, unless you’re Kansas. A case can be made that the Cougars are too talented to fail and even if they don’t go all out to win, they still could claim the crown. But the vibe would be that Sampson understands this isn’t all that important for his team. Their 19-1 regular season is unheard of, they feel due for a loss and will have to get through either BYU or Iowa State just to get to the title game.

4. IOWA STATE

The Clones and their fans own Kansas City this time of the year. A recent win over K-State isn’t enough to feel like Iowa State has their mojo back. Going on a run in Kansas City to get right before the NCAA Tournament feels in play for Iowa State.

5. KANSAS

They have struggled mightily this season for their standards. But they are going to get a good crowd advantage, the same one that just victimized Arizona over the weekend in Allen Fieldhouse. That would be the second matchup of the tournament for the Jayhawks, after facing Utah or UCF. Feeding Hunter Dickinson is an easy place to start for them, and maybe the other members of the team snag some Kansas postseason magic that ignites this time of year (1988 & 2022).

6. ARIZONA

I expect a good smattering of Arizona fans in the crowd in Kansas City, but Tommy Lloyd might have soured some of them. He said after the loss to Kansas that their trips to Lawrence and Ames recently show a drastic difference between the home court advantage their fans provide compared to what they just experienced on the road. Postseason magic doesn’t just belong to Kansas, Caleb Love grabbed some when he was at North Carolina. The Wildcats caught fire until the middle part of conference play before slipping up, can they recapture the magic? Beating Kansas will be the key.

7. BAYLOR

After the top six, this got hard in a hurry. Keeping in mind that I think the bottom half is the easier path for a lot of teams, that played into my choice of Baylor. Top end talent is also not a problem for them, VJ Edgecombe has been scoring all season long. They are another Big 12 team that had preseason top 10 expectations, but didn’t meet them during the regular season. Could it all come together in Kansas City? Sure. Probably not though.

8. KANSAS STATE

Things have not been pretty lately for K-State. But when you look at what is left for the rest of the Big 12, this is probably the right spot for them. For starters, they have actually won consecutive games at the rate they will have to for a Big 12 Tournament title. When the stars aligned for this team, they were one of the better ones in the league. The only problem, they have far too many holes for the stars to align enough. If the three point shooting returns for the Wildcats they pepper enough threes around nightly David N’Guessan 20 point contributions.

9. WEST VIRGINIA

I think Darian DeVries is a great coach and only needing four wins is a benefit to them. I only slotted them ninth because they have the best coach remaining and a team that still has some season to go. Their path isn’t the easiest, but I would rather have to live and die by them than the rest coming up.

10. CINCINNATI

I’m not convinced they even want to keep playing basketball, after nasty losses to K-State and Oklahoma State in the final week, but they would have the making of a team that could make a run. It will take a level of shooting they haven’t mastered all season. More than anything, this team just needs real motivation.

11. UTAH

They’re happy to have Craig Smith out of town and Gabe Madsen carries them to win after win. The most wins Utah has strung together consecutively this season though is three. The same amount as the next team on this list.

12. TCU

Losing to Colorado doesn’t inspire confidence in the Frogs going into KC. But, it should provide good motivation for them to win their first game. West Virginia has been a wildcard all season, so a winnable game. At that stage, you are hoping for some really bad opponent performances mixed in with the best stretch of TCU basketball all season.

13. OKLAHOMA STATE

If I had to rank day one teams that would have the motivation to play hard, Oklahoma State would be in the top three. They will also have the benefit of actually facing two teams they beat at one point this season to start the event. Bryce Thompson continues to be the random key to Cowboy basketball. If he is having one of his nights, they are going to have a chance to win. He and Abou Ousmane both would be All-Tournament team selections if Steve Lutz’s boys go on a run.

14. UCF

If his players love him, Johnny Dawkins gets to go on a Kevin Keatts-esque run to save his job for one more season. Only for everyone to realize it is a massive mistake as UCF once again finishes in the bottom four of the league in 2026. At one point this season the Knights stormed into Lubbock and beat Texas Tech (that was night number one of Big 12 play).

15. ARIZONA STATE

Step 1: Get healthy. Step 2: Pray everyone else stays healthy. Step 3: Bobby Hurley III plays like he is the son of Bobby Jr. for the first time ever in his life. Step 4: Hope that Bobby III’s uncle wants to swap jobs for a week with his brother. They open up with K-State, a team they already beat once.

16. COLORADO

The Buffaloes are the 2025 winner of the Mike Boynton LOL You Have Zero Chance of Winning This Award.