2 Things to Look at in Your Horse Racing Program During Derby Week

There’s more than one way to skin a cat and handicap a horse race. I don’t pretend to be an expert at either, but I do know how to read a program. It’s something that comes in handy this time of year. Before you blindly take tips from the “experts,” let me share a little knowledge that could go a long way on the first Saturday in May.

Tip 1: It’s Better to be Lucky than Good

In 2018 I put my handicapping chops to the test. The entire programs for Oaks and Derby day were scribbled on days in advance. Before making my way to the track on Saturday, dozens of bets were placed, including a big Pick 5 ticket. They all were losers. While taking cover under a tarp in the soggy infield, I had a few shekels leftover for fun money. In the pouring rain I made a $6 bet on Funny Duck. If any horse can run in the slop, it’s one named after a duck. It won the Pat Day Mile at 39-1 and paid about $100, my only winner of the day.

It’s better to be lucky than good. If a horse is named after your kid, let it ride. When in doubt, blindly pick numbers. That’s how my wife won a Kentucky Derby bet with Country House. It’s also never a bad idea to just ride with your favorite connections. I will never throw out a Brad Cox horse or Graham Motion on the turf. You can’t always win that way, but you probably won’t always lose.

Tip 2: Speed and Improvement

It does not matter if I’m betting horses at Keeneland, the Kentucky Derby or $10,000 claimers on Twilight Thursday, I have a system that is my guiding light in handicapping. When I open a race program, there are two rows of columns I examine, speed rating and where the horse placed in its previous races.

Let’s use Todd Pletcher’s Kingsbarns as an example. His speed rating for each race is circled in blue, with his race results highlighted in red.

Even though the Louisiana Derby did not have a loaded field, it’s the longest prep race on the circuit. He’s undefeated and has improved in every single start and for that reason, I can’t throw out the horse.

Horse racing, particularly the Kentucky Derby, is all about peaking at the right time. When picking ponies I’m always looking for a horse that has continued to improve in its most recent starts. It’s not a fool-proof system, but it’s an easy way to feel confident when you’re picking the ponies this week at Churchill Downs.