3 Reasons Kentucky Will/Won't Make the Final Four (BTI's R&Rs)

As with every season that will be defined by 1-6 games in March, you can justify why Kentucky will make the Final Four or why they won’t. Every team has scenarios that work in their favor and scenarios that don’t. But the way I see it, there are 3 main reasons why Kentucky will make the Final Four and 3 main reasons why they won’t.

THEY WON’T: SEC TOURNAMENT RESULT

I’ve mentioned this before and wrote a post about it last week but this Kentucky team will now have to break a trend that every Kentucky Final Four team accomplished. They would become the first team not to make the SEC Tournament final or better to make the Final Four. Never happened one time. Kentucky Final Four teams enter NCAA Tournament play hot. Every time. Is this team hot right now? Hard to say that I think.

THEY WILL: A VARIETY OF WAYS TO BEAT YOU

We’ve seen this team win games in shootouts. We’ve seen them win grinding games. We’ve seen them shoot great and blow out teams and shoot poorly and still win. They’ve won games with offense and won games with defense. Obviously, they need to shoot the ball better than they did against Tennessee. But even still, they still had a chance to win. Point being, this team is versatile and that should be a huge advantage in a tournament where you could play 6 teams with 6 different styles.

THEY WON’T: CENTERS SHOULDN’T BE YOUR STAR

The season that Oscar has had is truly not believable. I think it is the best individual season a Kentucky player has had in the John Calipari era. Yes, a better season than Anthony Davis. Not saying he is a better player but he is having a better season. But, for whatever reason, centers rarely are the stars of Final Four teams. The last center to win Final Four MOP: Anthony Davis in 2012. Before that: Joakim Noah in 2006 (if you want to call him a center). Kentucky needs Oscar to be an All-American in this tournament but he likely will not have the ball in his hands in key moments. Guards and forwards dominate NCAA Tournaments. The impact that Wheeler, Washington, Grady, and Mintz will likely be the deciding factor in how far this team goes.

THEY WILL: THE DRAW

No surprise here but the Kentucky draw is favorable, to say the least. If this is truly a Final Four team, then they should be able to beat four opponents, none of which match up particularly well with them. Purdue has weapons that could hurt Kentucky but their defense would suggest they are not Final Four worthy. Baylor obviously has some talent but they are a step back for sure from last year’s title team. Murray State and San Fransisco should not be serious competition. The draw sets up so that if Kentucky plays even close to their potential, the Final Four is likely.

THEY WON’T: WHO IS PLAYING WELL?

Oscar is playing well obviously. Besides that, can you say anybody on the team is playing their best ball of the season? You could say Jacob Toppin but his performances have been inconsistent at best and he will be splitting minutes with Keion Brooks. Tyty has shown flashes of his pre-injury self but still seems not quite the player he was. Grady has gone cold. Mintz not that far behind. Wheeler hasn’t dominated games like he did in the non-conference. Brooks has flat hurt the Cats on a few occasions in the last 4 weeks. And the flashes we saw in one game from Collins and Hopkins seem like distant memories.

THEY WILL: OLD GUY MOTIVATION

Oscar Tshiebwe. Kellan Grady. Davion Mintz. Sahvir Wheeler. Jacob Toppin. Keion Brooks. Before this year, a total of 15 college seasons played between them. Not a single NCAA Tournament win amongst them and only 3 appearances total. This group has to be hungry to prove themselves starting this week. This is a group that has been around college basketball for quite a long time without tasting NCAA Tournament glory. It would be stunning to see them not come out fired up on Thursday. For some of these guys, it will be their last chance at making their mark. I expect some seriously motivated players who will do anything to get Kentucky to the Final Four.