3 Things 2 Watch 4: Kentucky vs. Florida

Kentucky opened the season 4-0 against inferior foes. How will they fare when the competition cranks up a notch against No. 22 Florida? Here are 3 Things 2 Watch 4 as the Wildcats seek their first three-game win streak over Florida since 1951.

Kickoff: Noon EST
TV: ESPN
FanDuel line: Kentucky -1.5, Total 43.5

Make Graham Mertz Throw

Kentucky brought Graham Mertz and Devin Leary to campus for official visits this offseason and ultimately chose Leary. So far, the former has been much more accurate. His 78% completion percentage is the highest in the SEC, but don’t be fooled by the numbers. Billy Napier isn’t asking his quarterback to make difficult downfield throws, instead relaying on an outside zone rushing attack to set up the play-action while dinking and dunking the football through the air.

Mertz has less than 25 passing attempts in three Florida wins. Playing from behind at Utah, he had 333 yards on 44 attempts. It’s one of 11 career starts where Mertz has thrown 30+ passes and his team has lost. The goal of Brad White‘s defense is to stop the run and force Graham Mertz to beat the Wildcats through the air.

Explosive Plays for the Kentucky Offense

A common theme in Kentucky victories in this series is big plays by the Wildcats. Lynn Bowden, Wan’Dale Robinson and Dane Key all made magic with the ball in their hands. This iteration of the Wildcats has been more explosive than any of its predecessors. That trend needs to continue for Kentucky to knock off a Top 25 opponent at home.

Under second-year defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong Florida has won of the best run-stopping units in the country. They currently rank second in the SEC, trailing only Kentucky, by allowing just 82 yards per game on the ground. Kentucky may have to eat some carries to get to the explosives. The Cats rank second in the SEC in runs of 30+ yards (5) and first in runs of 20+ yards (9).

To create explosive plays through the air, Leary needs time to dissect the defense. The Big Blue Wall has provided enough early protection; the four allowed sacks are tied for the fewest in the SEC. Florida also struggles to create havoc on defense. They rank last in the SEC in turnovers forced (1) and 13th in sacks (7) and tackles for loss (19).

In a matchup between teams that aren’t great in the red zone, whoever creates the most explosive plays will win the ball game.

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Avoid Catastrophic Mistakes

Kentucky is the better football team. If they lose to Florida, it’s because the Wildcats beat themselves. Fortunately the aforementioned explosive plays have mitigated the early mistakes by the offense. It worked through the first four weeks, but the margin of error is drastically smaller this week against the Gators.

In each of Mark Stoops’ three wins over Florida, the Gators been the culprit behind those big mistakes. Kentucky capitalized with defensive or special teams touchdowns in all three meetings. In a close, low-scoring game, the team that makes the biggest snafu is the one leaving the field with an L. Kentucky cannot flinch in big moments against the Gators.

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