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3 Things 2 Watch 4: Kentucky vs. Mississippi State

Nick Roushby:Nick Roush11/04/23

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Davis-Wade Stadium
(Matt Bush | USA TODAY Sports)

It’s nauseating to write this sentence one more time: Kentucky has not won a football game in Starkville since 2008. Hopefully that is the last time I ever need to type that on this website. Mark Stoops is seeking his first road win against an SEC West opponent when Kentucky travels to Mississippi State Saturday night. To escape with a win, Kentucky has to step up in a few different areas.

Kickoff: 7:30 pm EST
TV: SEC Network
FanDuel line: Kentucky +4.5, Total 45.5

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Catch the Football

There’s one big reason why Kentucky fans are optimistic in spite of the October losses. Against Tennessee the Wildcats figured out how to throw and catch the football. Devin Leary completed 71.7% of his pass attempts to eight different players for 372 yards, all season-highs. The quarterback played a big role in the step forward, just as much as the offensive line and receivers contributed as well.

Kentucky’s pass-catchers had one of the highest drop rates in college football. They got it together against Tennessee and now they need to keep it together. Mississippi State opponents have a 72.9% completion percentage, the highest in all of college football. There will be opportunities to play easy games of pitch-and-catch. The Cats must capitalize.

Contain Two Explosive Bulldogs

Kentucky fans have Mike Wright PTSD from last year’s loss to Vanderbilt when the quarterback wracked up 310 yards threw the air and on the ground. He did most of his damage in three plays that totaled 128 yards.

His top wide receiver on Saturday is Lideatrick “Tulu” Griffin. This year he has two receptions of 50+ yards, the second most in the SEC. Against South Carolina he caught a 65-yard touchdown pass and gained 256 yards through the air on only seven receptions.

With star running back Jo’Quavious “Woody” Marks‘ sidelined, these are the only two big-play threats. Mississippi State is inefficient offensively, ranking No. 113 in success rate. If the Cats are disciplined enough to contain Wright in the pocket and force him to throw away from Griffin, it’s going to be awfully hard for the Bulldogs to move the football.

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Fast Start for Kentucky

Things are not going well in Starkville. Most first-year head coaches avoid the hot seat, but Zac Arnett was promoted under unusual circumstances by a former AD. If his team doesn’t win Saturday, the Bulldogs’ 13-year bowl streak is in jeopardy.

There will be angst in the air Saturday night at Davis Wade Stadium. That will all be amplified if the Bulldogs are forced to play from behind. As good as the offense was last week, the first two possessions ended without a first down. If Liam Coen gets back to his sensationally scripted starts, Kentucky can get the confidence and momentum to bulldoze Mississippi State on its home field.

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2024-12-31