3rd and 18: The Play That Did Not Cost Kentucky the Gator Bowl

3rd and 18.

In the 48 hours since the loss to Clemson that phrase has come to define the Kentucky Gator Bowl defeat. The Kentucky defense should not have allowed Clemson to keep its game-winning drive alive once the Wildcats forced Cade Klubnik to intentionally ground the football. Kentucky did not execute in a critical moment. Nevertheless, allowing 16 yards on that snap did not cost Kentucky the football game. Here’s where things really went wrong for the Wildcats.

Three Fourth Quarter Turnovers in 8 Plays

That’s the ball game.

I’m not sure how to look up what a team’s record is when they commit four turnovers in the fourth quarter. I’d bet good money that you can count on one hand how many teams have turned it over that many times in the final period and still won the football game.

There was a Devin Leary strip-sack, then a tipped-pass that was intercepted. Barion Brown fumbled the ball away. The game ended with an overthrown Leary pass in the final seconds.

The offense produced a few more explosive touchdowns later in the game and for most fans, those big plays seemingly made up for the error of their ways. It shouldn’t. You can’t turn the football over four times in the fourth quarter and expect your defense to win you the football game.

This is why Kentucky was in a “Soft Zone”

Allow me to use a basketball analogy. Let’s say the Kentucky basketball team has a 7-point lead with 90 seconds to play in an Elite Eight game. The only way they go home is if the other team gets hot from three. John Calipari then decides to play a 2-3 zone, a defense he rarely has played all year that is susceptible to allowing three-point shots.

That doesn’t make sense, does it? Of course not. That’s not the Kentucky defense, just like press, man-to-man isn’t the defense Brad White plays, especially in a do-or-die, late game scenario.

Kentucky had its top two cornerbacks on the sideline, including the SEC’s leader in interceptions, thanks to injuries. Mark Stoops after the game said they had to “play some coverages that can protect” those backup cornerbacks. Do you know why? Remember what happened earlier in the season when Kentucky tried to play man-to-man with a backup cornerback in the game? Jordan Robinson got beat off the line, fell down and Tennessee had a pitch-and-catch 39-yard touchdown.

Criticism for the development of the secondary is valid. Should they still need to protect transfers who have played multiple years of college football that are now in game 13? That’s a fair question, but previous results indicate it’s not wise to leave the cornerbacks out to dry.

Even if Kentucky played more man-to-man throughout the regular season, even if they had their top cornerbacks in the game, most defensive coordinators are playing zone defense in this situation. Playing aggressive and bringing pressure will get you fired, just ask Gregg Williams.

No matter how much time passes, I cannot believe Gregg Williams sent an all out blitz on this play

pic.twitter.com/MearBXnAyO

— NYJ MIKE (@NyjMike) February 8, 2023

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The Coverage Wasn’t Soft Enough

You’ve all seen this picture by now. The Kentucky player circled is Jordan Robinson.

Let me show you another one. This time the player circled is the nickel, Jantzen Dunn, the former four-star talent from Bowling Green that forced intentional grounding on the play before.

There’s a two-fold failure in execution. What you you can’t see off-camera is Robinson bailing out of the route and running deep, well beyond the sticks. It’s unnecessary. What you can see is another inexperienced player not bailing out his buddy on the edge.

Dunn is tightly covering the receiver five yards down the field in the flat. Why? Kentucky wants Cade Klubnik to throw that pass. Dunn needs to get more depth, sink back into coverage and take away that spot in the zone. A player with instincts and reps would’ve taken Klubnik’s preferred target away, but Dunn just didn’t play the nickel position that much at all this fall, the Ohio State transfer’s first year in Lexington.

There was a Fourth Down Too

If the Kentucky defense executed the call correctly and Clemson completed a pass underneath, it’s fourth and medium (5-8 yards). That was the goal for Stoops and White. Instead, it was only fourth and two. It was converted by Phil Mafah so quickly that you might have missed it. Meanwhile, Stoops had three timeouts in his pocket. He could’ve burned one to get the defense ready to end the game on fourth down. That was not the case.

The Kentucky Defense Played Well

And that’s the part that frustrates me most about all of the 3rd and 18 talk.

The offense lost the game when they gave Clemson the ball three times inside the Kentucky 40-yard line. The kickoff team did the defense another disservice and gave the Tigers a fourth scoring opportunity inside the 40. Clemson only scored 13 points on those possessions. That’s damn good defense.

Clemson was limited to 4.6 yards per play. Northwestern averaged 4.6 yards per play this year, ranking 124th nationally. That’s damn good defense.

Kentucky sacked Klubnik eight times, twice their season-high of four against Missouri. It’s the most sacks in a game by the Wildcats since they had 6.0 in the 2021 season-opener. It also doesn’t include the multiple intentional grounding penalties on Clemson. That’s damn good defense.

Unfortunately, it does not matter because Kentucky lost and there is always a scapegoat. Right or wrong for many it will always be one three-word phrase.

3rd and 18.