4-Point Play: Callin' Baton Rouge with John Welch

Another day, another road trip for the Cats, this time to Louisiana to take on the LSU Tigers in a late-evening matchup on Wednesday.

What should we expect in Baton Rouge? And how did we get here, Kentucky coming off its biggest win of the season at Auburn? John Welch broke it all down this morning ahead of the midweek flight down south.

Let’s dig into those comments a bit tonight on 4-Point Play.

Developing defensive pride

John Calipari talks about ignoring the clutter, but Adou Thiero hinted that Kentucky’s doubters were intentionally highlighted to add fuel to the fire ahead of the trip to Auburn. They saw the stats and the headlines. Ugonna Onyenso took it personally, specifically what people had to say about the team’s defense — his specialty.

“If we don’t lock in defensively and play as one, we’re not going nowhere,” he said following the win. “… People said what they said online, that we were bad defensively. We came together as one. We can’t let people say things like that about us. … Everybody did their job. That’s all I’m gonna say.”

Now, Kentucky was objectively terrible on that end of the floor. Historically bad with the numbers and analytics to back that up. That’s not something anyone around the program could argue — and they weren’t. Talk of this team never being able to put things together defensively and that being the reason an all-time offense is wasted? Yeah, that’s subjective. That’s something you can use as motivation to find your aha moment, essentially what we saw on the Plains.

The breakthrough they’ve been fighting for since day one.

“We’ve been hammering on the defense for months now. Right from the beginning we felt our offense was ahead of our defense so defense has been an emphasis for a couple of months and I think it’s starting to show,” John Welch said. “We picked our pressure up some, our pick-up point is higher. And also getting DJ (Wagner) back, we felt like that set the tone with how hard he plays and how well he guards the ball. That made a big difference.”

The effort has been contagious, as has the physicality. They just needed the blueprint to see what it looked like to come up with stops. That’s what made the win at Auburn so much more than a resume boost.

“The players are learning. We’re working on it constantly and I think the hard work is just starting to show. DJ’s pressure on the ball makes a difference. As hard as he plays, he makes the other guys want to play hard, as well,” Welch added. “… I think they’re developing a pride in their defense. They work hard at it. I think they took it personally what was being said about them.”

A fluid frontcourt anchored by Ugo

Clarity is on the horizon for the rotation if things aren’t clear now. We saw the vision even without Tre Mitchell at Auburn, only seven players playing at least five minutes, all above the 18-minute mark with four above 30. The leader? Ugonna Onyenso with a team-high 36 minutes, racking up seven points, 11 rebounds, two blocks and an assist in the win.

Jordan Burks played four minutes, followed by Aaron Bradshaw with three and Zvonimir Ivisic with 32 seconds. Mitchell’s absence didn’t do anything to change Calipari’s desire to tighten the rotation.

It’s subject to change, but the days of substitution roulette are over with March almost here. They’re rolling with the guys who give Kentucky the best chance to win on both ends, and for now, that’s Ugo.

“Ugo is earning minutes because of his defense. It’s a little bit of a fluid situation,” Welch said. “Aaron’s come in and played very, very well. He has played more physical. I think it’s a situation of whoever plays well is going to earn the minutes. … As Coach (Cal) said, you’re going to earn your minutes in practice. So Aaron and Z, they have to earn their minutes in practice.”

It’s no coincidence that Kentucky’s best defensive performances have come with Onyenso playing his best basketball. Those two things go hand in hand. The hope is that’s the answer for the Cats the final few weeks of the regular season and into March.

“He’s such a good defensive player and I think his rim protection makes a big difference for us,” Welch said. “… That’s who Ugo is. I wasn’t here last year, but my understanding is he’s always been a great rim protector. I think the more he plays, the game experience helps him and it slows the game down for him. That’s his superpower, his timing and awareness blocking shots.”

Back on the road at LSU

Kentucky has jumped up four spots in the NET back to No. 21 overall after peaking at No. 16 back in January. The Cats are moving in the right direction, but if they want to build back some trust nationally, this week is huge. It starts with a sneaky Quad 2 matchup in Baton Rouge against LSU, who sits at 13-12 on the year and 5-7 in the SEC, but 9-4 at home.

The Tigers lost seven of nine within the conference before going to South Carolina and earning a ranked road win in Columbia. That was after a tight 82-80 loss at Florida, one of the hottest teams in the SEC.

Overlook Matt McMahon’s group, a top-100 scoring and 3-point shooting team, and you could head back to Lexington with a loss.

“It’s gonna be a tough game so hopefully we can play well. LSU is a very good team, a very good offensive team,” Welch said. “They have great spacing and they move the ball. It’s going to be another challenge for our defense. There’s not an easy game in this conference, every game is a tough game. From a players and coaches perspective, that makes it a lot of fun. I think our players enjoy the tough environments on the road.”

It’s easy to enjoy them when you’re 5-2 in true road matchups, two of three Quad 1 wins coming in such games. For whatever reason, this team just takes care of business away from Rupp Arena.

Why?

“I just think we have players that have played in big games coming up through high school and through their careers. I don’t think they’re fazed by the crowds,” Welch added. “If anything, I think it energizes them. Before the game at Auburn was probably the loudest I’ve ever seen our team. Coming back in the locker room, you could see they just enjoyed their crowd and their energy. And I think they fed off of it.”

That’s part of Kentucky’s confidence going into postseason play, where all games are played away from home. The Cats are winning at a 70% clip on the road and in neutral site matchups. They hope to continue that momentum in March.

“Coach Cal talks about this team and how he loves this team, and he feels like it’s built for March because of that,” Welch said. “They have the ability to go on the road, the ability to make shots, we’ve proven we have the ability to defend. That’s what you need in March.”

Kentucky has two top-three freshmen nationally

No, your eyes aren’t lying to you. Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham are two of the best instant-impact pieces in college basketball, certainly among rookies. In fact, according to Evan Miyakawa of EvanMiya.com, those two grade out as Nos. 1 and 3 nationally with only UConn’s Stephon Castle separating the pair of Wildcats.

That’s according to the outlet’s Bayesian Performance Rating, which measures a player’s overall value using box score stats, advanced on-off plus-minus data and historical information.

Aaron Bradshaw grades out at No. 15 overall, followed by Justin Edwards at No. 25.

Here are the top ranked freshmen at https://t.co/cegyfz96ax, along with how their rankings have changed since preseason: pic.twitter.com/tbnzZKhhO0

— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) February 20, 2024

“Rob really helps our offense,” Welch said of Dillingham. “His ability to create his own shot and create shots for others, I think it’s a game-changer for us.”

“Reed is a special player,” he added.

Can’t say we disagree.