4-Point Play: Four keys to a Kentucky win vs. Wright State

The moment we’ve all been waiting for has finally arrived, Kentucky set to take on Wright State to open the season and tip off the Mark Pope era in a game that actually counts. It’s a battle of the Wildcats and Raiders, tip-off scheduled for 7 p.m. ET inside Rupp Arena, televised on ESPNU.

UK opened as a 20-point favorite, but WSU isn’t a pushover, coming off a season where it finished No. 4 nationally in scoring and No. 1 in field goal percentage.

What are the keys to a convincing win in Pope’s debut? KSR’s got four of them to keep an eye on as we get ready for a big night in Lexington.

Initiate the track meet

Kentucky and Wright State were two of the best offenses in college basketball a year ago, both ranked inside the top ten in scoring, shooting and overall efficiency. On the other end of the floor, however, the Wildcats and Raiders were equally poor, ranked No. 334 and No. 346 nationally in scoring defense, respectively. The difference? It’s a brand-new roster for Mark Pope with zero returning talent from a year ago while Clint Sargent brings back eight letterwinners.

Wright State lost its two leading scorers in Trey Calvin and Tanner Holden, who not only combined for 35.9 points per game, but also 3.3 steals per contest. AJ Braun, who added 12.0 points, 6.2 rebounds and a team-high 1.1 blocks per game, is no longer with the Raiders, either. Michael Imariagbe is a previous two-time conference All-Defensive selection — a strong addition from Houston Christian — but the accolades stop there regarding standouts on that end. Look no further than their four steals and three blocked shots in a 108-59 exhibition win to open the season.

Kentucky added three star defenders in Lamont Butler, Otega Oweh and Amari Williams this offseason with the team simply longer, more athletic and more talented than tonight’s competition. Initiating the track meet — even if it means playing through early mistakes and missed shots — could prove to be fruitful with minimal defensive pushback. Stick to the script of playing fast and hitting big on a run or two.

Limit Brandon Noel and Alex Huibregtse

Of Wright State’s long list of returning talent, no duo is more important than Noel and Huibregtse. Both players averaged over 33 minutes per game a year ago and 12-plus points per contest with a combined 46 outings of double figures. Noel was named Horizon League Freshman of the Year after averaging 14.5 points and 8.0 rebounds on 53.5 percent shooting while Huibregtse averaged 12.3 points and 3.8 rebounds on 41.7 percent from deep.

Interestingly enough, those two combined for just 15 points in 35 total minutes for Wright State in its lopsided exhibition win over Wilmington. Make no mistake about it, though, the offense runs through those two and containing them both will go a long way in Kentucky’s pursuit of a season-opening win.

Kerr Kriisa‘s time to shine

How about a wildcard to throw out there for the Cats? I’m rolling with the West Virginia transfer as the difference in this one.

Kriisa was still getting his feet wet in Kentucky’s second exhibition matchup, but still racked up three points, six assists and four rebounds with zero turnovers in the win over Minnesota State. He didn’t come out firing in his first 16 minutes as a Wildcat, but he was still spectacular off the bench and provided a massive spark following a sloppy start for the team, mostly as a change-of-pace backcourt threat.

We’ve seen the playmaking side of Kriisa, now it’s time to see the shooting and scoring side. Coach Pope talked about this team’s ability to blow a game wide open with runs. “We know it’s always coming,” he said leading up to the opener. “… There’s going to be a two- or three- minute run where it’s going to be the death knell, where we get it done.”

The Estonian guard will be in a position to spearhead that run tonight for Kentucky en route to Pope’s first win as head coach.

Force 15 turnovers

Kentucky forced 17 turnovers and recorded 15 steals in the Minnesota State win. Those steals were distributed among eight different players with five picking up multiple. Against Kentucky Wesleyan, it was 18 forced turnovers with 12 steals, seven different Wildcats earning at least one and Lamont Butler leading the way with six by himself. UK scored 20 points off turnovers with 39 fast break points in the latter, 18 off turnovers and 35 on fast breaks in the former.

It will be the scoring runs that push the lead for the home team inside Rupp Arena on Monday, but those massive swings are started by defensive stops on the other end. And Kentucky is taking on a team that turned it over 12 times per game against Horizon League competition with a top-25 tempo in college basketball.

If this is going to be a track meet — and that’s the expectation, considering the over/under is set at 161 total points, the second-highest of the entire opening day schedule — the sloppy moments will come. That’s where the program’s 60-13 assist-to-turnover ratio in the exhibition schedule with 35 forced turnovers can really shake things up in Kentucky’s favor. Take care of the ball and force the Raiders into mistakes and the Wildcats can bust the dam in a hurry.